Alan Brugler

USDA's latest WASDE report revealed varying global stocks-to-use dynamics, with tightening corn supplies contrasting with ample soybean stocks, while wheat remains in a relatively balanced position globally, excluding China's large reserves.

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The world corn stocks-to-use ratio ex-China is currently projected to be 11%. That would be up slightly from last year's 10.6% but still very close to the 2012-13 era. That means there is a giant sucking sound for corn exports, and the U.S. is in a position to deliver.

USDA's March 31 reports showed lower corn and wheat planting intentions, higher soybean acres, and mixed grain stocks, but tariff uncertainty, fertilizer costs, and ample supplies leave the 2026 crop outlook murky.

USDA's August WASDE report raised corn and soybean acres but cut yields, while broader macro trends -- tight world corn stocks, surging soy crush demand and reduced Russian-Ukrainian wheat exports -- dominate the outlook.