Bill Conerly

Oil price spikes cause recessions; stable high prices don't. Here's why the distinction matters for your business planning in 2026

Recession provides opportunity to buy small businesses—and 52% of owners are near retirement. How to position your company to buy when others are forced to sell

Pumping gas at gas pump. getty Consumer sentiment has dropped to record lows, but the economic outlook isn't too much worse.

Summary The Index of Consumer Sentiment has been published by the University of Michigan since 1952, but has never been as low as the May 2026 level.

Real estate professionals recently asked me if we would get back to a “normal” housing market.

The surge in billionaires, like Elon Musk, to a record number reflects a dynamic economy. While the top 0.1% hold more wealth, the overall economic pie has expanded, benefiting the bottom 50% too. Innovators drive much of this, creating vast societal value while capturing only a small share, alongside financiers who boost market efficiency. Entertainers have neutral impact; heirs' investments are productive. Philanthropy's economic benefit is unclear without market testing. Only "parasite" billionaires, exploiting political connections, harm the economy. Overall, the rise of innovator billionaires signals positive economic dynamism and progress, if crony capitalism is prevented.

$14 trillion in foreign investment pushed U.S. stocks past GDP growth, as emerging economies poured money into American markets

The economic impact of artificial intelligence is multifaceted, requiring close monitoring of several key areas. While AI has shown little immediate effect on aggregate employment and wages, significant initial investments in training and process restructuring are crucial for realizing its full benefits, akin to past technological shifts. Current productivity data may not fully capture AI's quality improvements, making its true economic contributions challenging to measure. AI predominantly augments workers, particularly less experienced ones, though automation is expected to grow. Competitive pressures will accelerate AI adoption across diverse industries. Inflation dynamics are also influenced by AI; expectations of future productivity gains could initially drive inflation before increased supply eventually lowers prices. Furthermore, AI might reduce entry-level hiring by automating basic tasks, affecting career progression, yet it can also empower less experienced staff to perform at veteran levels. Ultimately, AI is projected to enhance overall productivity, leading to improved purchasing power, but will inevitably cause job displacement for some.

The aftermath of the Iran war will leave lasting impacts, particularly on the global oil market due to potential supply disruptions. The conflict highlights how new, affordable drone and missile technology enables easier control of vital shipping choke points like the Strait of Hormuz. This dramatically increases risk for international shipping, as seen with Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, forcing rerouting and raising costs. Businesses must now factor in higher expenses for supply chain reliability, either through mitigation or absorbing disruption losses. This elevated risk will continue to drive up global product costs until defensive technologies advance.

Long-term economic growth is vital, significantly impacting future generations' prosperity and overall well-being. Even small annual growth rate differences compound dramatically over decades, leading to vastly different living standards. Businesses depend on these forecasts for capital investments and product development, as higher growth signals wealthier consumers. While some economists express pessimism about future growth due to diminishing returns, Nobel laureates like Joel Mokyr and Philippe Aghion remain optimistic, arguing new technologies like AI enable exponential progress if innovation isn't stifled. A critical trade-off exists between economic growth and stability. Policies prioritizing stability, such as strong labor protections or environmental regulations, can inadvertently hinder the "creative destruction" necessary for dynamic growth. The author predicts innovation will likely circumvent these stability-driven limits, leading to continued progress, echoing Mokyr's sentiment that "the best is yet to come."