Bryan Norcross

Melissa will likely intensify into a hurricane in a matter of hours. Once the storm has its structure in place, rapid intensification is forecast over the near-record warm water.

An extremely dangerous and unnerving scenario will unfold tonight, tomorrow and Tuesday across the eastern half of Jamaica, including the capital, Kingston.

Hurricane Melissa is an extraordinary Category 5 hurricane. Its high-confidence track will take the center ashore on Jamaica's southwest coast tomorrow morning. Melissa could go through an eyewall replacement cycle on its path north to the Jamaican coast, which would reduce the peak winds, but it would grow the storm in size. A larger storm generally does more damage overall.

The full scope of the disaster in Jamaica is not yet clear, and the impacts from the storm are not finished.

Communication systems are down, so we still don't know the total breadth and depth of the catastrophe in Jamaica. But what we know is horrible. The western half of the island was devastated.

While Bermuda took a glancing blow, that was not the case in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and The Bahamas. Life will be very difficult for many people for quite some time in those countries.

A winter weather pattern is forecast to settle over the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the tropical Atlantic. Hostile upper-level winds are increasing spreading across the tropical belt, which is typical of the changing seasons.

Further tropical development is unlikely this hurricane season. A wintertime weather pattern has settled over the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the tropical Atlantic. Hostile upper-level winds and dry air blanket the tropical zone.

No doubt you've heard talk that El Niño is going to limit tropical activity in the Atlantic this hurricane season. That's a possibility, though it's not a slam dunk. The El Niño hasn't developed yet, and its eventual strength is important to how it affects tropical-storm and hurricane formation.

We prepare for an El Niño year just like we do for a season when 20-plus storms are forecast, because an exception coming to your town can't be ruled out.