Daniel Dawson

"QATAR IS WORKING WITH ITS REGIONAL PARTNERS AND CHINA TO RESUME TALKS BETWEEN US AND IRAN - FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS"

Diesel cracks have fallen amid a rise in underlying crude pricing on Tuesday, with Middle East tensions being weighed.* US ULSD crack down 3.5$/bbl at 100.38$/bbl * US gasoline crack up 3$/bbl at 45.77$/bbl * US 321 crack up 0.8$/bbl at 63.97$/bbl * EU Gasoil-Brent down 2.7$/bbl at 74.37$/bbl * EU Gasoline-Brent up 1.9$/bbl at 34.04$/bbl * Shipments through the SoH are now about 10m b/d, made up of 9m b/d of crude and 1m b/d of products, Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said. * Ukrainian drones reportedly struck Russia's Saratov refinery overnight on Sep. 8, according to local media reports. * Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said a 'number of energy facilities and utilities' in the Kingdom's southern region were targeted on Tuesday morning. * NASA Firms data shows fresh heat anomalies at the site of the Jazan refinery as of Tuesday morning, potentially indicating another hit on the site. * Heat anomalies were also present at the Abha Bulk Plant, responsible for regional fuel distribution. * Oil product markets are flashing signs of tightness while crude's outlook seems reasonable, with flows through the SoH picking up, Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said, cited by Bloomberg. * European naphtha exports from the EU, UK and Norway rose 14% on the month to 1.448m mt in August, a three-month high, as weak regional demand left surplus barrels available for export, Argus said. * India's fuel demand in August fell by 6.34% month-on-month and by 2.8% year-on-year to 18.61m metric tons, according to the oil ministry Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell data. * Nigeria's Dangote refinery is running at full capacity and maximising diesel and jet fuel to Europe according to its CEO, Bloomberg reports. * Switzerland has released a small part of its national petroleum reserves after a technical outage at the country's only refinery added to supply strains resulting from transport restrictions on the Rhine, Bloomberg reports.

*ZELENSKYY: UKRAINE HIT NOVOROSSIYSK NAVAL BASE, OIL TERMINAL" BBG* Confirms earlier reports of attacks. CPC was also said to have been targeted.

“CLAIM: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces have claimed they struck two U.S. Navy destroyers operating in the Middle East. This is completely FALSE.”

Brent rallies to above $100/bbl after renewed vessel attacks across the Middle East and amid signs of disruption to CPC loadings.* Brent NOV 26 up 2.7% at 100.53$/bbl * WTI OCT 26 up 2.1% at 95.03$/bbl * US Central Command confirmed it destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers. The strikes were a direct retaliation after Iran's IRGC targeted an American Navy warship with ballistic missiles. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio explicitly warned that the US will continue striking Iranian tankers if threats to warships persist. * The IRGC launched ballistic missiles targeting US forces stationed at the Al Azraq military base in Jordan. IRGC also said it targeted 2 US vessels and 8 oil tankers attempting to enter restricted waters, Press TV reported. * UKMTO has received a report from a third-party of an incident 24NM northwest of Port Rashid, UAE. * A Panama-flagged tanker carrying 2m bbl of Iraqi fuel oil was struck by a drone in Iraqi territorial waters on Wednesday, Reuters reports citing two port officials. * Compounding the supply concerns, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen launched strikes against several southern Saudi Arabian cities on Sep 8, including the 400kb/d Jazan refinery. * Iraq wants to increase its OPEC oil output quota, with future targets calculated from a 6mb/d baseline, as the group reviews member capacity to determine 2027 output. * Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and surrounding areas were attacked by drones overnight, damaging infrastructure, Bloomberg reports. The CPC was also targeted. * China's oil demand is expected to fall by 600kb/d, or 8.9% year on year, in 2026, as high prices curbed consumption and electric vehicle adoption accelerated, according to Sinopec's research. * Japan's Taiyo Oil has increased the proportion of oil imports from the US to 60% of its total purchases from 40% before the Iran war.

UKMTO has received a report of an incident 98NM southwest of Al Mukalla, Yemen. The CSO of a cargo vessel has reported that his vessel has been approached by an unidentified skiff.* May refer to Somali pirate activity.

Brent has surged to above $105/bbl as gains by Houthis in Yemen and surrounding islands add further risks to Saudi exports, with the Kingdom's production at the lowest since 1990 in August, while US-Iran tensions appear to remain high also.* Brent NOV 26 up 4.2% at 105.5$/bbl * WTI OCT 26 up 4.2% at 100.07$/bbl * President Donald Trump directly addressed the price spike. He asserted that the US-Iran conflict would end "immediately after the midterms" (which are 8 weeks away) and predicted that oil prices will "plunge" right after the election. * Iran is ready for a more intense war and will escalate counterstrikes if the US continues attacking its territory and infrastructure, according to a senior official cited by Bloomberg. * Yemen's Houthi's edged closer on Thursday towards gaining Bab el-Mandeb leverage, four Yemeni military sources told Reuters. The Houthis have taken control of the city of Mocha. Reports suggest they have also taken control of Zuqar island and Mayun island. * This week, the U.S. military destroyed five Iranian oil tankers and Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they retaliated by striking eight tankers and two U.S. warships. * Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC that its crude production fell to its lowest level since 1990 in August, according to the monthly report from the organisation obtained by Bloomberg. * Morgan Stanley estimates that Middle East crude exports including non-SoH routes averaged 13.4m b/d in the week ending Sep. 8, down 0.6m b/d w/w. * Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers of crude oil stood at 7.15m b/d over the past 14 days, according to TankerTrackers. * A surge in global tanker freight rates reflects growing strain in oil markets amid the drawn-out conflict in the Persian Gulf and increasingly complex workarounds, Bloomberg said. * The US-Iran war has created a structural deficit in medium and heavy sour crude, not just an overall supply shortfall, according to Platts. * Global crude stockpiles are drawing down at pace according to Energy Aspects Director of Research, Amrita Sen.

“IRAN-BACKED HOUTHIS REACHED YEMENI PORT CITY OF DHUBAB, ALONG BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT- TWO YEMENI GOVERNMENTAL SOURCES” RTRS

Houthi statement contains some operational details around Yemen and reiterates that maritime navigation is safe for all apart from Saudi ships, but not much new.

Iran's Foreign Ministry confirms plans to hold a regional meeting with GCC countries regarding Iran-Oman discussions for the Strait of Hormuz. Reiterates that Strait of Hormuz security can not be guaranteed without changes in US actions.* "The Foreign Ministry spokesman called the initiative to hold a meeting of the foreign ministers of the countries of the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman an important development in this regard and expressed hope that this event will pave the way for promoting understanding among the countries of the region and help strengthen common regional security. * "According to Baghaei, the meeting, with the participation of Iran, Iraq and other Persian Gulf littoral countries, will be held in Oman on Monday, and in it, in addition to other regional issues, the results of the Iran-Oman talks on determining safe routes for commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will also be discussed and exchanged." * "The Foreign Ministry spokesman also recalled the understanding reached between Iran and Oman regarding temporary shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, and stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran considers itself committed to efforts to ensure shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz, but naturally, as long as the US's aggressive actions and illegal interventions, including the naval blockade and economic war, continue, shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be guaranteed."