David Kotok

Tracking one year (from the day before “Liberation Day” to this April Easter/Passover period) a month into the escalating Iran War, we look at the turmoil and volatility in the US markets.

The March CPI jumped by 0.9 percent (equal to market expectations), bringing the 12-month trend rate up to 3.3 percent – the fastest pace since September 2023.

Municipal credit quality continues to be resilient. S&P reports that upgrades exceeded downgrades in most sectors in 2025, elevating average municipal ratings.

Summary As we examine what is happening with the stock market, it's important to keep in mind that wealth in the US is increasingly concentrated, and that is a contributing factor to increased volatility.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000 for April, above market estimates of about 50,000. Upward revisions for March were modestly offset by downward revisions for February.

The April CPI rose by 0.6 percent for the month, with the core rate (excluding the volatile food and energy components) rising by 0.4 percent.

Summary Retail sales rose by 0.5 percent in April, just shy of market expectations.

Summary The intermediate components of the PPI have some forecast power.

With the ISM surveys showing solid gains for both manufacturing and services, the strong gains in NFP indicate that the economy is on solid footing – perhaps even too strong if lower estimates of sustainable job gains are accurate.

One of the task forces is going to focus on the way the Fed addresses its outlook (forecast) for its dual mandate.