David Kotok

The April CPI rose by 0.6 percent for the month, with the core rate (excluding the volatile food and energy components) rising by 0.4 percent.

Summary Retail sales rose by 0.5 percent in April, just shy of market expectations.

Summary The intermediate components of the PPI have some forecast power.

With the ISM surveys showing solid gains for both manufacturing and services, the strong gains in NFP indicate that the economy is on solid footing – perhaps even too strong if lower estimates of sustainable job gains are accurate.

One of the task forces is going to focus on the way the Fed addresses its outlook (forecast) for its dual mandate.

The bond markets have seen a significant rise in rates with the 10-year US Treasury bond yield rising from 3.95% at the end of February to 4.65% as we are finishing this outlook.

We saw a convulsive reaction to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference on Wednesday, July 29th, following the Fed's decision to keep the fed funds target rate at 3.50–3.75%.

U.S. fixed income markets endured another challenging week as Treasury yields moved higher following the FOMC's decision to leave rates unchanged, and a steady stream of economic data reinforced the resilience of the U.S. economy.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 for July, with downward revisions over the prior two months totaling 103,000 – much less than market expectations.

U.S. fixed income and equity markets saw solid gains last week as a surprisingly weak July employment report sparked a rally in Treasuries and reduced expectations for additional near-term Federal Reserve tightening.