Girard Miller

No matter where they end up, import taxes aren’t likely to drive inflation enough to have much effect on state or local tax revenues. Public financiers have more to think about amid federal aid cutbacks, AI's impact on employment and rate-cutting by the Fed.

Innovators, investors and practitioners are on the hunt for fruitful applications of blockchain and other evolving financial technology. Undoubtedly some of their ambitions will involve government finance. Which ones might actually pan out?

State and local retirement systems should collaborate to develop an AI-powered digital assistant to help government employees make better financial decisions throughout their careers. Hand-me-downs from the private sector won't cut it.

Not much for now, with next year’s insurance premiums jumping far more than general inflation and tax revenues. Employers’ only hope to begin stemming these costs long term is a stronger, unified front at the state and national levels. There also could be an important role for public pensions.

Short-term interest rates are likely to continue ratcheting down, making it a challenge for state and local financiers to maximize income on investments. But there are a few opportunities here and there.

Instead of across-the-board property tax cuts, targeted state and federal incentives for younger first-time home buyers and older would-be sellers could begin to break the logjam in the housing market.

State and local financial managers face the impact of federal aid cutbacks, plus new rules and even some opportunities. It’s a time to focus on what’s practical and necessary, both near and longer term.

Success in the coming years will require sustainability, adaptation and perseverance, especially as AI both enhances and disrupts government. Professional leaders need to look beyond the short term, facilitate change where needed, and reinvent themselves.

States need to aggressively assert their domain over the digital betting shops trying to cloak themselves as trading platforms.

An array of non-traditional investment vehicles will likely be offered up to governments’ defined-contribution plans. Consultants, plan sponsors and overseers need to approach them with caution.