Gunnar Consol

BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) - A beautiful, breezy, and quiet start to the week gives way to a more active midweek pattern. Monday stays sunny and comfortable, but smoke may return Tuesday as winds turn south and a disturbance looks to approach from the west. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the best chance initially across northern New York, before widespread showers arrive Tuesday night. Wednesday looks wetter across Vermont, with another round of showers and thunderstorms possible as the cold front moves through. The overall severe and flooding threat remains low for now, but localized heavy rain or a stronger storm cannot be ruled out if enough heating develops. Conditions improve by Thursday, with a warm and mostly dry finish to the workweek.

A quiet start to the week gives way to a slightly more active Tuesday and Wednesday as a stronger low-pressure system pulls multiple fronts through the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the best chance for stronger storms across southern St. Lawrence County and perhaps Franklin County. Widespread showers and a few rumbles of thunder continue Tuesday night, then activity shifts east into Vermont Wednesday before gradually weakening. The Storm Prediction Center has the area under a Marginal Risk for severe weather — Level 1 on a scale of 1 to 5 — both Tuesday and Wednesday, though the Wednesday storm threat has trended lower. Blue skies, crisp air and lower humidity return Thursday, followed by a warming trend into the weekend.

BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) - Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue through this evening before diminishing overnight as the current system pulls east. Gusty southerly winds will remain a factor through the evening, especially near Lake Champlain, where a Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect. A few showers and thunderstorms linger into Wednesday morning, but the stronger storm threat has trended lower as a cold front arrives earlier in the day. Drier and more comfortable weather takes over Thursday through Saturday before warmth and humidity build again late in the weekend, with another system bringing renewed shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday night into early next week.

BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) - A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for Lake Champlain into this evening as westerly gusts of 20 to 30 knots and waves building to 2 to 4 feet on the broad lake. Lingering showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue today as a cold front moves through, with the best coverage across the northern and western Adirondacks, northern Green Mountains, and far northern Vermont. Conditions dry out by this evening, setting up a quiet and comfortable late-week stretch. Temperatures then warm through the weekend, with highs climbing into the upper 80s by Saturday and Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return late Sunday into next week, though the exact timing of those rounds remains uncertain.

BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) - July is our hottest, muggiest, and most summerlike month of the year. Despite that, we still see a few cool, refreshing nights every now and then.

BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) - A hot and mostly dry weekend is ahead as high pressure keeps sunshine and warm temperatures in place. Wildfire smoke is something we are watching Sunday into Monday, with the potential for haze and degraded air quality if a denser plume works into the region. The pattern turns more unsettled beginning Monday afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely through the middle of next week. Tuesday looks like the most active day, with numerous thunderstorms and periods of rain possible as a slow-moving cold front approaches. Temperatures turn cooler and more seasonable by Wednesday before drier weather returns late next week.

BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) - A dry and warm Sunday is ahead, with plenty of sunshine, low humidity and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s. Wildfire smoke remains something to watch Sunday into Monday, with the potential for haze and degraded air quality if a denser plume reaches the region. The pattern turns more unsettled beginning Monday, with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Rain chances increase significantly Tuesday into Wednesday as a larger system approaches, though the exact track of a developing low-pressure system will determine how much rain falls and where the heaviest bands set up. The current flood risk remains low, but this will be a forecast to watch as next week gets closer.

BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) - It may be the heart of summer, but the calendar has reached a seasonal milestone: We are now halfway between Burlington's average last snowfall in spring and its average first snowfall of fall.

BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) - A slow-moving system will bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday through Thursday, with the greatest concern for localized flash flooding Tuesday night into Wednesday morning primarily for southern parts of Vermont. The First Alert Weather Day is in effect Wednesday as widespread downpours continue across the region. The highest concern is along the eastern slopes and spine of the southern Green Mountains, where terrain will help focus rainfall, with the east slopes of the Adirondacks another area to watch. The Champlain Valley and Northeast Kingdom may see lower totals because of downsloping. No Flood Watch is currently in effect, but the setup will be monitored closely.

BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) - Through late this evening into tomorrow a First Alert Weather Day is in effect as periods of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms increase the risk for localized flash flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect from 8 p.m. tonight through Wednesday evening for much of central and southern Vermont and Essex County in New York. Rainfall totals in the watch area are expected to reach 2 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts up to 5 inches possible. The greatest concern is along the eastern slopes and spine of the southern Green Mountains, with the east slopes of the Adirondacks another area to watch. Minor urban flooding has already been reported in Bennington this afternoon after isolated downpours, scenes like this will likely continue through the overnight and especially into tomorrow.