Harry Enten

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CNN data analyst Harry Enten reviews Republicans gaining ground in party registration in the swing states of Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina."The Democratic brand is in about as good a position as the Cracker Barrel rebrand," he quipped.HARRY ENTEN, CNN: The Democratic brand right now has about the same appeal with American voters as the Cracker Barrel rebrand had with the American consumers. Bad, bad, bad. What are you doing? Oh my goodness gracious!What we’re talking here in terms of big party registration changes in the key swing states, let's look at four key swing states that do keep track of registration by party. Look, the Republican Party is in their best position at this point in the cycle since at least 2005, in all four of these key battleground states.How about Arizona, Nevada? Republicans haven't done this well since 2005. Oh my goodness gracious, at this point in a cycle.North Carolina, I couldn't find a point at which Republicans were doing better at this point in the cycle. It's at least this century, probably goes way back to the last century.Pennsylvania, very similar. Republicans are doing better at this point than any time this century, as far as I could find.Now, what types of gains are we talking about here for the Republican Party? Well, let's compare it to this point during their first Trump administration, all the way back in 2017.Look at this: Republican Party gains in party registration compared to this point back in 2017, during the Trump first administration. Arizona, you got a Republican gain of three points. How about Nevada? Up the hill we go, even though we're sticking in the southwest, again, a six-point gain. How about again we come to the East Coast, North Carolina, a gain of eight points for the Republicans. And then the Keystone State in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, again we're talking about a gain of eight points.My goodness gracious, for Republicans, they are converting old former Democrats to their side of the ledger, as well as picking up new voters, registering new voters, and it absolutely paid off for them back in that 2024 election.Now, of course, Donald Trump has been president since January. Are there any bright spots for Democrats? Have they picked up any ground since January 1 in terms of party registration? I'm not seeing it in these key swing states, these four key swing states. That's what we're talking about: party registration margin gain since January 1, 2025.Which parties gained in Arizona? The GOP.How about Nevada? The GOP.North Carolina, the GOP.How about Pennsylvania, four for four, the GOP.The bottom line is this: when it comes to party registration, Republicans have made massive gains compared to eight years ago. They are in their best position, in these four key swing states, dating back at least twenty years. You have to go back at least twenty years, at least the case of Nevada, longer for North Carolina and Pennsylvania.So Republicans are looking pretty gosh darn good, at least when it comes to party registration. And we'll see what happens down the road, but this point, as I said in the beginning, the Democratic brand is in about as good a position as the Cracker Barrel rebrand. It is bad, bad for Democrats.

CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten breaks down new polls showing how Americans view jobs and unemployment in the US.

CNN data analyst Harry Enten on Tuesday examined former Vice President Kamala Harris' declining favorability rating, suggesting her political career may be nearing its end.SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: All right, joining us now to discuss, or at least look at the numbers, because he is our chief data --HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Guy.SIDNER: Correspondent.ENTEN: Analyst. Whatever you want, Sara.SIDNER: Reporter. Analyst. However I want to call you. Or friend.ENTEN: There we go. I like that, chief friend.SIDNER: Maybe -- maybe today. We'll see. Harry Enten here.So -- so how are -- are voters viewing Harris these days? And, to be clear, she -- this book has just come out. She's done an interview on NBC with Maddow. She did an interview on "Good Morning America." She -- we're going to hear from her here today as well. What -- what are people thinking about her as this starts to come out?ENTEN: Yes. I would just say that if you want a messenger to go against Donald Trump, you could do far better as Democrats than Kamala Harris. What are we talking about here?Well, let's take a look at her net favorable ratings nationwide. You know, back in October of 2024, she was at minus five points. Not exactly great, but pretty close to the zero mark, right? Pretty close to even. But now, down under she goes. She's at minus 13 points. That's an eight point drop since the general election among the overall electorate. She is not well liked at this particular point. The American people, they don't want this. They don't want her.And get this, she's 27 points underwater with independents. If you can't win independents, you can't win the election.And the bottom line is, with those in the center of the electorate, those who are the most up for grabs, she is way, way, way underwater. She is definitely swimming with the fishes.SIDNER: So, that's overarching, right, looking at the whole country. What about Democrats in particular? Where does she stand with Democrats?ENTEN: Yes, OK. So, what about the political base that is Democrats? Well, why don't we talk here? All right, top choices for 2028 Democratic nominee. Now it's still really early, but I think this really tells you that over the last few months Democrats have really sort of put Kamala Harris on the back burner. What are we talking about?So, back in April, she was -- 28 percent of Democrats said that she was their top choice for the 2028 nominee. Look at where she's dropped. She's dropped by nearly ten points since April, only 19 percent now. She was 20 points ahead of Gavin Newsom back in April. And now the two of them are in a dead heat. In fact, she's actually two points behind Gavin Newsom, though that's within the margin of error. But when you go from 20 points ahead of Gavin Newsom to two points behind, it's clear that Gavin Newsom is doing something the American -- the Democratic Party and the Democratic voters want, and Kamala Harris ain't doing that.SIDNER: And this also, when you look at that number, like gives a lot of space to a lot of other people that might want to jump into the race.ENTEN: Sure.SIDNER: Let's talk about her home state, which is, obviously, a state that is a Democratic state. How -- how are they feeling about Kamala Harris?ENTEN: Yes, OK. So, voters nationwide ain't liking what they're seeing from Kamala Harris. Democrats are far more open to other options for 2028. But how about in the home state? Well, it pretty much says the exact same story.Californians on Harris' runs for president. Back in 2024, she got 58 percent of that vote. Now, only 42 percent of Californians are excited for another run for Kamala Harris for president. So, no matter where you look, whether you look nationally among voters overall, nationally with Democrats or within her home state, Kamala Harris' political standing has fallen.Now, obviously, we'll see whether or not this book has any big changes. But at this particular point, Kamala Harris' political career, time seems to be running out on it.SIDNER: Yes. I mean she's been pretty quiet, and now she's sort of back on the stage, the national stage. So, we'll see sort of what happens with those numbers (INAUDIBLE), right?ENTEN: That is why we track the numbers. And we come in every morning.SIDNER: Yes. Every morning. And we appreciate you.

CNN data guru Harry Enten analyzes the latest favorability and midterm polls on Tuesday's "CNN News Central" and said it would not be surprising if the Republicans maintained control of the House.KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: So, from tariffs to immigration crackdowns, as the topic was just there, President Trump has spent the first eight months of his presidency making good on some of his campaign promises. So, what do voters think about it, and how could this impact midterm elections -- the midterm elections to come?Harry Enten is crunching the numbers on this one. He's here with us now.Harry, it's been almost one year since the election. How are voters feeling right now about the president?HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: You know, sometimes I think it's worth taking that 35,000 vote view. And as far as the American people are concerned, Trump could be better known as steady Eddie.What are we talking about here? Well, why don't we take a look here. Favorable view of Donald Trump. You know, you go back to October of 2024, 44 percent of the American public viewed him favorably. Now, despite everything, look at this, 43 percent, which is well within the margin of error of that 44 percent. And here's the thing to keep in mind. This was good enough to get Trump reelected back in 2024. And Donald Trump is basically at the same point here right now, which I think would surprise a lot of folks, especially a lot of folks on the left, who very much disagree with a lot of what Donald Trump has done.BOLDUAN: Well, what do you see is underneath that and driving that? Why is he basically the same?ENTEN: OK. You know, to quote the esteemed scholar (ph), Dennis Green, the former head coach in the National Football League, Donald Trump is who the voters thought he was. What are we talking about here? Well, is Trump doing what he promised in the 2024 campaign?Yes, 52 percent, the majority of Americans say that Donald Trump is doing what he promised, compared to 48 percent who said no. So, what essentially is going on here is the voters expected all of this from Donald Trump, the majority did, and that is why his favorable rating, simply put, has not really moved all that much compared to where it was a year ago. Trump is basically doing what the American people thought that he was going to do. Indeed, if you look at the numbers, Trump has basically the steadiest favorable rating this much through a presidency of any president on record. And it's basically where he was a year ago. Good enough to get him reelected.BOLDUAN: So, then what is -- what are you seeing as how this is impacting midterms?ENTEN: Yes. OK. So, one of the questions we basically had as we've gone on through the numbers, right, is that Democrats have not been able to run away with it. And now we know it's basically because Donald Trump is where he thought he was, which was good enough for the Republicans to maintain control of the House last time around. Look at this, the race for Congress, Dems versus Republican margin. You look at "The New York Times" poll, it was tied a year ago at this point. Now it's Democrats plus two, within the margin of error. Look at Yahoo/YouGov. It was plus three Democrats at this point a year ago. Now it's plus four. Maybe the Democrats have gained a little bit, but in reality, Kate, what we're really seeing is that the American public is pretty much steady. They are basically where they were a year ago at this point. Maybe Democrats can take control of the House where the polling is right now, but maybe not, because the bottom line is, we've seen numbers fairly similar to what we have right now. We had it a year ago, and it was not good enough for Democrats to take control.The bottom line is this, as long as Donald Trump is where he is, Republicans will, in fact, remain competitive. If they, in fact, gain a little bit, it really would not be that surprising to me if Republicans were able to maintain control of the House, especially given their redistricting efforts in many of those states.BOLDUAN: Fascinating. It's a -- it's a really good look, Harry. Thank you so much.ENTEN: Thank you, Kate.

CNN data analyst Harry Enten reported Wednesday that Democrats are not matching their polling performance from the 2018 midterm elections, when they won control of the House.KATE BOLDUAN, CNN: New this morning, the race to control the House in the 2026 midterms has taken a turn and possibly brings with it a new warning sign for Democrats.Harry Enten running the numbers on this one and sneaking in at the last minute, just as usual.HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: I've learned that way around. I've learned that.BOLDUAN: That was good. That was a good maneuver.ENTEN: Thank you.BOLDUAN: People should -- I wish people could see it.ENTEN: I have -- I have fantastic moves. It's the new shoes, as we spoke about yesterday.BOLDUAN: OK. Moving on.And you're -- OK, you're tracking the odds. What is the change that you're seeing?ENTEN: Yes. OK. So, you know, if you go back six months ago, you go back to April, Kate Bolduan, what were we looking at? Well, we were looking at the Democrats with a very clear shot of taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives according to the Kalshi Predication Market Odds. We saw them at an 83 percent chance.But those odds have gone plummeting down. Now we're talking about just a 63 percent chance, while the GOP's chances up like a rocket, up like gold, up from 17 percent to now a 37 percent chance. So, it will look like a pretty clear Democratic -- likely Democratic win in the House come next year has become much closer to a toss-up at this point, although still slightly leaning Democratic.BOLDUAN: What's changed? What are you seeing?ENTEN: OK, what has changed? Well, why don't we just take a look at the national picture first, take a look at voters and how they're feeling about things. And we can take a look at the generic congressional ballot. And I want to take a look and compare it to 2017, 2018, right, because that's sort of the baseline. That was, of course, the first Trump term. That was where Democrats were sort of keeping pace.You go back to April, look at the generic congressional ballot. What'd you see? You see plus three Democrats in 2025 in April. You see plus three Democrats back in April of 2017. Now, jump over to this side of the screen. What happens? Well, the Democrats are no longer keeping pace with the pace that they were setting back in 2017, 2018. You look back in 2017, you saw that the Democrats had leaped up to an eight-point advantage. I remember covering this. I remember a lot of folks, including myself, saying, you know what, Republicans look pretty decent right now in terms of the fact that they had the House, they had the Senate, they had the presidency, but things were likely going to flip. And I was looking for the same signs this year.The bottom line is, it hasn't happened, Kate Bolduan. It hasn't happened. Democrats have stayed basically steady. They have fallen off the pace. Democrats were way out ahead back in 2017 on the generic congressional ballot. And now we're basically looking at Democrats ahead. But again, they are so far in back of the pace that they set back there. And so, I think what a lot of folks are seeing, folks like myself, are saying, wait a minute, given what we might be seeing in redistricting, is this plus three going to be enough, Kate Bolduan?

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CNN data reporter Harry Enten discusses the results of new polls from AP-NORC and Quinnipiac on how the public is responding to the partial government shutdown.HARRY ENTEN, CNN: You might think, given that the Republicans are in charge of both the House and the Senate, that a government shutdown might actually hurt the Republican brand -- but in fact, it hasn't.If anything, it's been helped a little bit. Take a look here -- the shift in net popularity versus pre-shutdown. When we're looking at the Republican Party overall, that brand is actually up two points. That's within the margin of error, but clearly it hasn't dropped.Come over to this side of the screen -- look at the net approval ratings for Republicans in Congress. It's actually up five points since pre-shutdown.So what we're seeing here is that the Republican brand in Congress has actually improved somewhat compared to pre-shutdown, despite the fact that Republicans control both chambers. And that's the math that John Thune and Mike Johnson are looking at -- "Hey, why should we give in, electorally speaking, when our brand has actually improved a little bit?"It's two groups that are so important to keep an eye on. All right, changing the Republican Congress net approval rating versus pre-shutdown -- it's rallying the base for sure. Look at this: the net approval rating is up 12 points versus pre-shutdown. But it's not just with the base; it's also with the middle of the electorate. Look at this -- among independents, it's up eight points as well.So we've got a situation here where Republicans, with the shutdown, are actually rallying their base, but it's also something that's not hurting them with the voters in the middle. If anything, it's helping them with folks in the middle. And this is the type of math that, if you're Republicans, you like to see. Right?Because something could rally the base but alienate those in the middle -- or something could rally those in the middle but alienate the base. But the truth is, we're not seeing that. What we're seeing is that the Republican brand has actually gotten better among independents, and it's also gotten better among Republicans as well -- that Republican brand, when it comes to those in Congress.So again, what's the electoral reason that Republicans would give in at this point?CNN HOST: And Democrats, of course, they have their eyes on the midterm elections. Yeah, we have elections one week from today. But what Democrats in Congress are mostly focused on are one year and one week from today -- the midterms. So how are Democrats positioned right now?HARRY ENTEN, CNN: Yeah, so, I mean, look -- the generic congressional ballot, which traditionally Democrats have done really well on. If you look back to this point when Trump was president the first time around, Democrats were up 11 points. Look at where it is now -- Democrats are ahead, but they're actually only up three points.This is, in fact, the worst position Democrats have been in on a generic ballot at this point in a midterm when there was a Republican president in the last 20 years. And this is no different from pre-shutdown. So Republicans aren't losing on this metric either.They've become more popular, and they're actually in a pretty good position for them historically when it comes to the generic congressional ballot.This is a concerning number for Democrats because it's considerably worse than they traditionally do in midterm elections when there's a Republican president.

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten dives into the numbers reflecting President Donald Trump’s approval rating.

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