Ishaan Gera

For the full year, the trade deficit, at $240 billion, was 9.3% lower than the previous year. Exports tumbled 3.1%, as geopolitical tensions continued to plague trade. Imports during this period were down 5.4% from FY23.

Middle East conflict may influence India's inflation and oil prices. Recent data shows decreasing consumer inflation. Monsoon forecasted to help control food inflation. RBI projects lower inflation. Markets stabilize after Iran's attack on Israel.

UNCTAD released a report revising India's economic growth forecast for 2024 to 6.5%, a slight decrease from the previous year's 6.7%. The factors contributing to India's growth in 2023, such as strong public investment and a thriving services sector, are expected to persist and support similar growth in 2024.

The National Statistical Commission's new steering committee will convene its inaugural meeting next week to discuss enhancing data quality and expanding statistical coverage. The agenda includes outlining objectives and focus areas for future surveys and methodologies. This initiative aims to address criticism of the statistics ministry's data quality and timeliness. The committee will also focus on capturing the impact of government schemes and aligning surveys with sustainable development goals.

High demand, social media trends, and production decline increase millet prices. Raginflation at 16.6% in March. Jowar inflation at 10%. Millets gaining popularity in healthy snacks, sweets. Government initiatives and rising demand may affect output and prices.

Experts anticipate a prolonged period of high vegetable prices due to strong demand, heatwaves, and an expected delay in relief until the monsoon arrives, with significant inflation impacts and price spikes observed across a variety of produce.

India's private sector activity surged to a 14-year high, driven by strong demand, according to preliminary data released by HSBC. The Flash India Composite PMI Output Index rose to 62.2 in April. Service growth accelerated, especially in international markets, while manufacturing remained steady. Optimism and improved margins were noted, but inflation remained above average

India's National Statistical Commission is back to full capacity with the appointment of two new members after a one-year gap. A Ganesh Kumar and Debasis Kundu have been appointed, bringing the panel's strength to five, including the chairman. The commission, set up in 2005, aims to strengthen the statistical system, suggest survey standards, and coordinate with other departments. The appointments come amidst calls for reforming the country's statistics system, with the Prime Minister's Office discussing overhauling measures earlier this year.

"Construction and agriculture are likely to be impacted more. Within agriculture, the vegetable output might get impacted more, as most of the cereal sowing will start later," said Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist, India Ratings and Research.

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) plans to increase its investment in India to over $4 billion this financial year, with a focus on climate finance. India's renewable energy targets and plans for a net zero economy by 2070 align with IFC's investment priorities, particularly in areas like batteries and electric vehicles (EVs). IFC also emphasizes financial inclusion, digitalization, infrastructure, and public-private partnerships as crucial for India's growth. However, challenges such as geopolitical developments and high interest rates may impact economic predictions and investment decisions.