Jon Sindreu

Keir Starmer, or his ⁠successor, faces ​a tricky gilt ​market, angry electorate, and a general election in ​three years. ​They would benefit from ‌ditching ⁠vague economic goals to embrace a few high ​impact policies. ​Redirecting ⁠2% of GDP from ​benefits into ​new ⁠homes could do the trick.

As pandemics, wars and ⁠trade standoffs shake ​the world, JW ​Mason and Arjun Jayadev argue in “Against Money” ​that a deeper ​belief is crumbling: that ‌economies ⁠can be measured by adding up money. The change ​can ​reshape ⁠how countries manage inequality, ​pensions and supply ​chains.

Physical shocks are shrinking the power of money - Jon Sindreu

With real-time payments ⁠growing 17% ​annually, the likes ​of the Fed, ECB and BoE risk a ​contradiction. Their ​support of digitalisation, which ‌includes ⁠blockchain technology, may further raise demand for central-bank ​money ​and ⁠complicate efforts to shrink ​their balance sheets.

Andy Burnham's ‌by-election win gives the outgoing Manchester mayor a clear path to becoming prime minister. Polls ​place him as the first choice ​of 47% of Labour Party members. But ⁠his focus on taxes rather than ​relaxing fiscal rules implies little extra pressure ​on UK borrowing.

The departing Keir Starmer’s decision ​to bind himself ​with manifesto tax pledges and ⁠budget rules was informed ​by overly optimistic forecasts. ​These showed GDP growth going from 0.3% to almost 2%. His ​successor needs to ​avoid a similar temptation as the ‌Iran ⁠war ebbs.

G7 pressure for Beijing ⁠to revalue ​its currency have ​resurfaced but even a 25% increase in the ​yuan would ​not overcome China's vast ‌cost ⁠edge. Closing the gap requires trimming regulation, funnelling ​capital into ​bold ⁠industrial policy, and even ​some targeted ​protectionism.

[LONDON] Big problems invite simple fixes, and there is a risk that Western policymakers are starting to treat the yuan as a big problem.

US corporate profit margins jumped to 16% in the first quarter, ​lifting a market where valuation ​multiples are unchanged from late ⁠2024. Earnings growth, underpinned by ​loose fiscal policy, is powering the ​rally. That makes it vulnerable if Uncle Sam narrows a big budget deficit.

Devolution can remake politics more than growth - Jon Sindreu