Jon Sindreu

The IMF’s spring meetings buzzed ⁠with talk of ​a 13 mln ​barrel a day oil shortfall reshaping economies, rates and ​defence alliances. Yet ​US officials treated it as ‌a ⁠sideshow. Even if Hormuz opens fully, they'll have to reckon ​with ​the ⁠bleak consequences of the war ​with Iran.

Washington has ‌flagged it would give the Gulf state financial assistance if it so needed. The US also says ​the UAE may not need a ​full dollar swap line. With financial buffers ⁠over 500% of GDP, and less apparent need ​for a 2009-style Dubai bailout by Abu Dhabi, ​that looks right.

American households only spend about 4% of their income on energy, compared ​with 5% ahead of the ​1990 energy shock. Yet a prolonged ⁠Gulf conflict may strain their budgets ​a lot more than back then. ​The chances of a downturn, even for the AI-powered US economy, are rising.

Lenders ​on either side of ⁠the Atlantic ​want to exclude government ​bonds from balance sheet limits. That’s risky, ​but better than ​leveraged investors loading up: ‌UK ⁠hedge funds have borrowed 100 bln pounds to buy ​gilts. ​It’s ⁠better for taxpayers if banks ​do the ​stockpiling.

Keir Starmer, or his ⁠successor, faces ​a tricky gilt ​market, angry electorate, and a general election in ​three years. ​They would benefit from ‌ditching ⁠vague economic goals to embrace a few high ​impact policies. ​Redirecting ⁠2% of GDP from ​benefits into ​new ⁠homes could do the trick.

As pandemics, wars and ⁠trade standoffs shake ​the world, JW ​Mason and Arjun Jayadev argue in “Against Money” ​that a deeper ​belief is crumbling: that ‌economies ⁠can be measured by adding up money. The change ​can ​reshape ⁠how countries manage inequality, ​pensions and supply ​chains.

Physical shocks are shrinking the power of money - Jon Sindreu

With real-time payments ⁠growing 17% ​annually, the likes ​of the Fed, ECB and BoE risk a ​contradiction. Their ​support of digitalisation, which ‌includes ⁠blockchain technology, may further raise demand for central-bank ​money ​and ⁠complicate efforts to shrink ​their balance sheets.

Andy Burnham's ‌by-election win gives the outgoing Manchester mayor a clear path to becoming prime minister. Polls ​place him as the first choice ​of 47% of Labour Party members. But ⁠his focus on taxes rather than ​relaxing fiscal rules implies little extra pressure ​on UK borrowing.

The departing Keir Starmer’s decision ​to bind himself ​with manifesto tax pledges and ⁠budget rules was informed ​by overly optimistic forecasts. ​These showed GDP growth going from 0.3% to almost 2%. His ​successor needs to ​avoid a similar temptation as the ‌Iran ⁠war ebbs.