Lewis Porylo

MNI's key exclusive stories for this week

China saw improved social stability during H1, with criminal cases down 16.5% year-on-year, while public order cases fell by 11.3%, Qi Yanjun, vice minister of Public Security, told reporters on Friday.Grassroots public security work has become more solid, preventable crimes have declined significantly and recurring public security problems have been effectively contained, Qi said.Authorities had shown little urgency to boost weak domestic demand given the relatively stable social conditions this year, an economist recently told MNI. (See MNI: China's Budget Revenue Weak Despite Tax Receipt Increases: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/mni-chinas-budget-revenue-weak-despite-tax- receipt-increases-1783400057048)

China's profits at industrial enterprises above designated size rose 15.1% year on year in June, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday: https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202607/t20260727_1964194.html.For the first six months of 2026, profits at industrial enterprises above designated size increased 18.7% from a year earlier to CNY3.95 trillion.Among major industries, profits in non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling surged 99.4%, while computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing profits climbed 96.9%. By contrast, profits in automobile manufacturing and ferrous metal smelting fell 19.5% and 25.0%, the bureau said.China is likely to accelerate the implementation of support measures and prepare additional incremental policies to address weakness in traditional industries amid the economic transition and uncertainty in the external environment, a prominent Chinese economist recently told MNI. (See MNI EM INTERVIEW: China's Econ Restructure Needs More Support: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/mni-interview-2-chinas-econ-restructure-nee ds-more-support-1784790570034)

China does not seek a trade advantage through currency devaluation, Lin Weilong, director of the Policy Research Office at the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters on Tuesday.Recent accusations from EU trading partners that China's exporters gain an unfair advantage from an undervalued yuan were factually groundless, Lin added. The market plays a decisive role in the yuan exchange rate, with officials ensuring levels are kept at a reasonable and balanced level, Lin added.Sustained yuan appreciation in the second half remains highly uncertain, a prominent Chinese economist recently told MNI, warning the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and renewed tensions in the Gulf are likely to cap further gains. (See MNI EM INTERVIEW: Further Yuan H2 Appreciation Uncertain - Guan: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/mni-interview-further-yuan-h2-appreciation- uncertain-guan-1784789260830)

Accusations from the EU and the U.S. that China engages in unfair competition and non-market policies is a typical case of "double standards", the Ministry of Commerce said in a poisition paper released on Tuesday entitled "China's Position on the So-called Excess Capacity Issue".The U.S. has seriously undermined fair compeition through illegal tarriffs, while the EU has introduced a series of trade and economic legislation measures, the paper noted.The European Union hopes to arrive at an understanding with China which allows it to protect its threatened industries, EU officials and people following talks recently told MNI. (See MNI EM: EU Aims To Reduce China-Dependence, Avoid Trade War: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/mni-eu-aims-to-reduce-china-dependence-avoi d-trade-war-1784633215900)

The People's Bank of China is likely to increase liquidity injections to support accelerating government bond issuance in the third quarter, pushing money market rates lower, but traders' expectations for further policy rate cuts remain limited, results from the MNI China Money Market Index survey showed: https://www.mnimarkets/articles/mni-china-money-market-index-pboc-to-suppor t-govt-bond-sales-1785304800296.LIQUIDITY: The PBOC conducted CNY206.5 billion via seven-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The PBOC conducted another CNY600 billion via overnight reverse repos today. The operations led to a net injection of CNY553.5 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY253 billion seven-day reverse repos today, according to Wind Information.RATES: The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) rose to 1.5019% from 1.4656%, Wind Information showed. The overnight repo average increased to 1.4468% from 1.4235%.YUAN: The currency strengthened to 6.7655 against the dollar from 6.7674 on Tuesday. The PBOC set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 6.7899, compared with 6.7928 set on Tuesday. The fixing was estimated at 6.7640 by a Bloomberg survey today.BONDS: The yield on the 10-year China government bond was last at 1.7215%, down from Tuesday's close of 1.7242%, according to Wind Information.STOCKS: The Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.40% to 3,828.47, while the CSI300 index rose 0.67% to 4,600.26. The Hang Seng Index increased 1.96% to 25,807.92.FROM THE PRESS: The PBOC should cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points prior to a 10bp policy interest rate cut in Q3, said Lian Ping, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, in an article published on Yicai, adding that targeted monetary policy tools to support private enterprises and technology innovations should be expanded with additional quota in H2. China should also boost fiscal support for economic powerhouses in H2, as the combined GDP of the top 10 provinces accounted for 61.4% of the national total, he said. Authorities should allow these provinces to take the lead in piloting initiatives such as market-based allocation of factors of production, cross-border data flow, and green finance innovation, leveraging fiscal subsidies and rewards to promote reforms, Lian said. Authorities could also provide additional awards for central-government-led projects that managed to leverage private investment, he said.The outstanding balance of property loans declined by 4.9% year-on-year to CNY50.74 trillion at the end of Q2, decreasing by CNY1.23 trillion in H1, Securities Daily reported citing data by the People's Bank of China. The outstanding balance of personal housing loans reduced by CNY716.3 billion in H1 to CNY36.29 trillion by end-Q2, falling 3.8%. For developers, the figure declined by CNY540.2 billion to CNY12.65 trillion, falling 8.5%.The total number of electric vehicle charging points exceeded 23 million by end-June, an increase of 43.2% year-on-year, Securities Daily reported citing data by the National Energy Administration. More than 180,000 high-power chargers have been installed nationwide, shortening the charging wait time and clearing a key obstacle for boosting EV consumption, the newspaper said. In H1, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both surpassed 7.4 million units, rising 6.7% and 7.3% year-on-year, the Daily said citing data by China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

A leading expert provides insight into China's H2 pork prices, a key component the consumer price index.

MNI's key exclusive stories for this week

Chinese experts provide insight into China's port and shipping price trends for H2.

MNI's key exclusive stories for this week