Logan Mohtashami

The 10-year yield is 4.43% and mortgage rates are 6.58%, with Fed week and inflation data setting the next move.

May housing starts fell 15.4% to 1.177M, while completed new homes for sale hit 122,000, a level that often limits new building.

With oil at $75.80 and mortgage rates near 6.50%, housing is watching whether Warsh can keep the Fed patient on hikes.

NAR data shows May pending sales rose 4.8% YoY, as mortgage spreads kept rates below 7% and inventory gains cooled prices.

Kevin Warsh called policy uneven for housing, ended dot plot guidance and launched a Fed task force as the 10-year yield sits near 4.50%.

On today's episode, Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami talks about Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as chairman and what his comments mean for mortgage rates.

The second half of 2026 hinges on whether demand stays positive with mortgage rates near 6.60% and tighter comps from July onward. Watch pending sales, purchase apps, inventory, new listings, price cuts, the 10-year yield, and mortgage spreads.

BofA forecasts three quarter-point Fed hikes in 2026, but market pricing and a 10-year yield near 4.51% argue for 0 to only one rate hike.

Many people in the housing industry are wondering why mortgage rates haven't fallen even as oil prices have dropped from $111 per barrel to less than $73 today.

New home sales tanked this morning and had a slightly lower negative revision. But the bigger story is that demand is the main reason housing