Logan Mohtashami

With weaker jobs and lower oil prices, hawkish Federal Reserve members have less ammunition for multiple rate hikes in 2026.

Mortgage spreads improved to 2.01%, keeping rates near 6.60% as total pending sales rose to 422,120 vs 396,652 last year.

With the 10-year yield near 4.51%, mortgage rates remain near yearly highs as Fed officials cite inflation risks despite lower oil.

The 10-year yield touched 4.60% on Iran headlines, but tighter spreads and a 6.50% to 6.75% base keep 7% less likely.

Inventory is 1.56 million with 4.6 months of supply, helping keep 1.8% home-price growth below wage gains running near 3.5%.

Pending sales rose to 63,971 versus 61,143 in 2025, inventory ended at 844,011, and price cuts were 39.57% versus 41%.

As Iran conflict persists, Fed officials signal rate hikes stay possible if monthly core inflation runs above 0.2% Article Summary

June CPI declined 0.4% and ran 3.5% year over year, and flat monthly inflation weakens the argument for a July hike.

The past few years say no, so this will be a good test for the markets Article Summary

Builder confidence is weak and permits and starts are falling, while completed supply is high, limiting a near-term building boom.