Martin Baccardax

The Federal Reserve's first policy meeting under Chairman Kevin Warsh highlighted a big focus on artificial intelligence spending. Bond markets are listening.

The Federal Reserve’s first policy meeting under Chairman Kevin Warsh highlighted a big focus on artificial intelligence spending. Bond markets are listening. Minutes of the Fed’s June meeting, where interest rates were kept unchanged at between 3.5% and 3.75% but communication was sharply pared back under Warsh’s new leadership, suggested a hawkish stance among Fed governors, many of whom remained focused on inflation pressures in the world’s biggest economy.

Martin Baccardax Japanese bond yields are spiking—and that could mean big trouble for U.S. stocks.

briefly topped 2.9% on Thursday, a level that still sits well below the current 4.57% yield on U.S. Treasuries but nonetheless represents the highest in three decades. Japan’s yen has facilitated that trade for much of the past five years, in fact, as it fell from a level of around 103 against the to the four-decade low of 162.83 it reached late last month. The risk is that Japanese yields rise too much, forcing investors to unwind their carry trades.

Martin Baccardax U.S. tech stocks are nearing the tail end of a crucial midyear run, which has defined the market's bullish narrative for much of the past decade.

Jeffery Hirsh of the Stock Trader’s Almanac notes that the typically enjoys a 12-day rally that begins in late June and runs until mid-July. This year’s vintage will likely expire on July 14, just as JPMorgan Chase kicks-off the bulk of the bank and financial earnings reporting for the second quarter. “Since 1985, the Nasdaq has averaged 2.5% over this 12-trading-day window, with a median advance of 2.9%,” he said in a recent blog post.

FEATURE Earnings seasons has started with a whimper, but the next three weeks could determine whether the market can build on its first-half gains, or end the year with a thud. Early reporters have disappointed the market—even when they beat earnings expectations.

Martin Baccardax Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes are back in focus this week, thanks to rising inflation concerns following another surge in crude-oil prices.

Martin Baccardax Big Tech and the AI investment wave will dominate this earnings season again, if Wall Street is right.

Non-tech sectors like banks and industrials are pacing gains, and should report strong earnings. It adds a layer of complexity to a market that AI has power for the past three years.