Masha Belikova

Black Sea wheat prices have surged in recent weeks due to tight supply and rising domestic demand, but market dynamics and harvest progress hint at a potential shift in the weeks ahead, with initial signs of that already seen.

In July, rains were reported across most regions in Australia, which saved crops in some areas that had been dry, like Victoria or South Australia, and boosted potential yields in other regions.

Ukrainian corn prices have been stable to firm for the new crop since such prices appeared in the market, although in the past two weeks a slow decline has been seen while the harvest progresses. But this was not considered to be enough to keep the origin competitive, trade sources told Fastmarkets on Tuesday October 7.

At the recent Berlin ECE commodities event, two major themes dominated discussions: the surprising stability of Ukrainian domestic corn prices despite bearish forecasts, and growing concerns over Egypt's state grain procurement process.

Ukraine's corn exports have slowed to their lowest level in a decade despite a solid harvest, with continued logistical constraints restricting shipment volumes and consequently supporting prices.

It has become increasingly clear in the week to Friday March 27 that, with new-crop wheat and corn prices beginning to emerge in Ukraine, the typical discount to old-crop prices was no longer present, Fastmarkets has heard.

The European grain trade gathered in Bucharest last week for EuroGrainExchange 2026. Here are our key observations.

Atlantic Panamax freight rates have hit their highest level since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis, driven by the Iran conflict, elevated bunker fuel costs and strong grain export demand – with no immediate relief in sight.

Egypt's structural reliance on wheat imports remains intact, despite stronger domestic procurement efforts.

Price spreads across European biofuel feedstocks and biodiesel markets widened sharply during the week to Thursday May 28, driven primarily by a steep decline in gasoil values and higher vegetable oil prices.