Pat Evans

A federal judge in Manhattan has denied the CFTC and DOJ’s emergency request for a temporary restraining order against New York, marking another setback for the federal preemption push on prediction markets.

Former Rep. Cori Bush is trying to win back her Missouri 1st District seat as another notch in the 2026 progressive wave, traders are leaning toward incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell at approximately 68%, signaling that the progressive surge still has clear geographic limits.

Abdul El-Sayed survived Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary with a much tighter win than prediction markets had priced in, turning a 98–99% “lock” into a reminder that even heavy favorites can end up sweating election night. His victory keeps progressives in control of a must-hold battleground, but with Republican Mike Rogers now leading in some polls and Democrats only modest favorites on Kalshi and Polymarket in the 60% range.

Sen. Darline Graham Nordone remains the favorite in a 10-way special primary to replace her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham. She’s trading at 63% on Kalshi with about $4 million in volume.

Reports that President Donald Trump privately told donors “we need to elect JD” have added fresh momentum to an already Vance-heavy 2028 market. Vance leads Marco Rubio 42% to 23% on Kalshi’s $56.1 million GOP-nominee market and 43% to 23% on Polymarket, where nearly $686 million has traded.

James Talarico has pulled even with Republican Ken Paxton on the Texas Senate prediction markets after a new poll showed the Democrat ahead by four points. Kalshi briefly priced Talarico at 51% on Sunday on $7.8 million in volume, a striking reversal from a race Republicans once treated as a safe hold.

Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan heads into Tuesday’s Minnesota Democratic Senate primary as the prediction-market favorite, trading at 72% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. But with the latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll showing Angie Craig ahead by two points, Minnesota is shaping up as another close test of whether the progressive wave can keep delivering after Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed narrowly escaped a race traders had called a near-lock.

Republicans remain slight favorites to hold the Senate in the headline market, but the state-by-state picture is moving in Democrats’ direction. Kalshi gives the GOP a 54% chance to keep control, down from roughly 60% in early July, while markets now put Democrats ahead in Michigan, Alaska, Ohio and tied in Texas.

Francesca Hong is trading at 95% to win Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary on Kalshi and 96% on Polymarket, putting her at the front of another progressive-wave test Tuesday. But markets have already flipped to Republicans in November, with the GOP at 62% on Kalshi, underscoring the harder question: whether a progressive primary win can hold up in one of the country’s most volatile purple states.

Sen. Darline Graham Nordone entered South Carolina’s Republican Senate special primary as the heavy market favorite, but failed to clear 50% and now faces Rep. Ralph Norman in an August 25 runoff. She remains the strong favorite at 84% on Kalshi, with $8.8 million traded, but the race is already echoing the Pamela Evette governor primary, another Trump-backed favorite who survived the first round only to lose the runoff.