Robert Cyran

That’s what the tech tycoon ​thinks his company should ​be worth in its upcoming ⁠IPO. The rocket, communications ​satellites and artificial intelligence ​businesses perhaps justify half that sum. The rest depends on investors ​believing Elon Musk can ​conjure up heavenly new markets.

Elon Musk’s rockets-to-chatbots outfit has excess ‌computing power, so will supply some to the Claude lab. Yet its $250 bln xAI unit is now an ​ugly hybrid, expensive versus middlemen like CoreWeave ​and a model-maker also-ran next to Meta. Chalk ⁠up another wrinkle for its mega-IPO.

By ⁠conventional measures, ​the SpaceX rockets, ​satellites and AI don’t add up to anything ​near the ​IPO’s targeted $1.75 trln valuation. A ‌new ⁠interactive Breakingviews calculator allows users to work out ​what proportion ​is ⁠being ascribed to colonizing ​Mars and other ​moonshots.

The soon-to-list rocket-maker’s joint ambitions ​with the electric-car giant, ​plus Elon Musk’s habit of ⁠buying his own firms, ​up the odds of ​a multi-trillion-dollar tie-up. His hefty stakes are bolstered by Texas law: ​a Tesla shareholder might ​need some $50 bln of stock to ‌sue.

Few harness tech hype and greed like Elon Musk, a ​modern alloy of Wernher ​von Braun and PT Barnum. Despite ⁠a crazed valuation, shares in ​his rockets-to-chatbot firm leapt 11% on ​launch. That sets the stage for other debutants to put a market value on ​humanity’s salvation or doom.

As his rocket-maker’s shares soar, Elon Musk’s wealth now stands at $1.4 trln. That’s 4% ​of US GDP, more than ​double Gilded Age titan John D ⁠Rockefeller’s hoard. The power this ​offers, even over governments, is immense. Yet ​it may prove more fleeting than empires of old.

Shale companies can drill wells quickly ​when prices spike. Yet ​when Iran presented the opportunity, ⁠they chose profit over ramping ​US production above 14 ​mln barrels a day. Exxon and Chevron revealed preferences for grinding out ​asset values from a ​mature industry.

As the $1 trln drugmaker’s smash-hit obesity treatments shrink waistlines, its ​cashflow and valuation are ​swelling. Gilead, Moderna and Pfizer show ⁠how hard it is to ​put such a windfall to ​good use. Deals may just destroy value. Buying back wildly expensive stock definitely ​will.

Combined, the US oil giants made $27 bln in ‌quarterly profit, or three times as much as a year ago. The Iran war means bumper petroleum and refining margins. With ​President Trump warning about high gasoline prices, energy ​bosses keep their heads down, talking about efficiency.

The $1.7 trln satellites-to-AI company’s first post-IPO results ​show revenue ascending 92%. ​Yet blockbuster deals with Anthropic ⁠and Alphabet offer only short-term ​thrust. For boss Elon Musk, ​reaching sustainable orbit is more about cracking truly cheap space transit.