Simon Moore

Not since August 2023 has IT contractor demand been this buoyant, thanks to Automation, AI, Cloud and Cyber Security uplifts, coinciding with nervy employers ‘sitting on their hands.’ Just don’t call it a ‘boom.’

The June Fed meeting may offer color of possible 2026 hikes and how Warsh wants to shape the Fed under his tenure as Chair

Newly confirmed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will lead his first FOMC meeting June 16-27, offering insights into monetary policy and communication changes. While interest rates are expected to hold steady, markets anticipate clues for potential hikes later in 2026, given above-target inflation and a strong job market. Warsh may signal a shift away from detailed forward guidance, preferring less explicit commitments on future rates. The meeting may also shed light on the roles of Jerome Powell, who remains on the FOMC to prevent a Trump nomination amid past legal challenges, and Lisa Cook, whose potential firing by Trump awaits a Supreme Court decision, that could protect Fed independence.

The Federal Open Market Committee held interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% on June 17, a widely anticipated decision. However, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is significantly altering monetary policy implementation. The FOMC statement was notably shorter, omitting forward guidance on future rate movements, a change Warsh believes allows markets to interpret economic data directly. Warsh also refrained from providing his own economic projections, though other policymakers did. He has launched five task forces to review Fed processes, including communication, the balance sheet, and data analysis, with changes expected by year-end. Warsh stressed the Fed's commitment to price stability, hinting at potential future rate increases amid elevated inflation, an expectation shared by markets.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, but Chair Kevin Warsh initiated a significant overhaul of monetary policy communication. He shortened the policy statement and eliminated forward guidance, signaling a shift to a data-first approach. Warsh believes markets should interpret policy based on economic data, not Fed projections, a change from past practices when inflation was low. He also launched five task forces to review Fed processes, including communication and data analysis, with changes expected by year-end. This new approach means less advance warning for future rate moves, though Warsh's commitment to price stability suggests potential increases given current inflation.

Fewer updates from HMRC about arrangements to avoid generate more questions about its resources, alongside doubts that every wheeze deserves a black mark, and hints that not all schemes face repercussions.

The new Makerfield MP is tipped by the cautiously optimistic-sounding contractor sector to be the next PM — and even if his IR35 and Loan Charge policies are pending, he’s an interventionist with a dislike of injustice.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's inaugural meeting marked a departure from forward guidance, making future interest rate decisions less explicit. Despite this, the FOMC's June statement emphasized "price stability" amidst persistent above-target inflation, strongly hinting at imminent rate hikes. Fixed income markets now project a high probability of rate increases by September, with multiple hikes expected by December 2026. A generally robust job market, though showing slight softening in June, continues to support a hawkish monetary policy. This move aligns with recent rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank, both addressing their own inflation concerns.

A record heatwave, a Red Extreme Heat Warning and even the World Cup combined in June 2026 to end IT contractor demand's brief return to growth, with VIQU IT and Reed exclusively telling ContractorUK that the summer slowdown has arrived weeks early

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is signaling a significant shift away from forward guidance, a move that will leave financial markets with less pre-meeting clarity on monetary policy decisions. Previously, markets often had a general idea of the Fed's plans, but Warsh's approach favors less disclosure and discussion of future policy. Forward guidance was originally adopted to manage periods of low inflation by pre-announcing sustained low interest rates. However, with inflation now generally above target, Warsh believes the tool is less relevant, allowing the Fed to make decisions more flexibly without managing market expectations. This change makes policy prediction for 2026 more speculative, as fixed-income markets face uncertainty regarding the timing and number of potential rate hikes. While inflation remains a primary concern, markets will now have less advance notice of the Fed's intentions.