Stephen Grootes

Amid increasing speculation about whether a poor result for the ANC in next month’s election could mean the end of Cyril Ramaphosa’s presidency, it must be remembered that the question of Ramaphosa’s future is intertwined with the issue of possible coalitions.

While much of the focus of our elections is on the future of South Africa, there is a growing list of groups pushing for secession. Instead of campaigning for a better common future, they are against the ties that bind us, claiming their futures would be better outside South Africa. While these groups will not win a significant share of the vote in the 29 May polls, the experience of other nations shows their ideas could soon have a more profound impact.

While all of SA's political parties are focused on the elections at the end of this month, some will soon start looking ahead to the 2029 elections, when there could be a much more fundamental change. If the latest polling is correct, the ANC may have an opportunity to weaken the EFF as a political threat forever.

The Democratic Alliance advert depicting our national flag burning and then reassembled, was clearly designed to inspire intense emotions. In that, it succeeded. But a much bigger question may be why this advert was published in the first place and whether it will succeed in winning more votes for the party, which three weeks before the elections should be the primary reason for its existence. This follows a tradition of the DA using incendiary adverts in its attempts to define the driving issues of the election.

The Democratic Alliance advert depicting our national flag burning and then reassembled, was clearly designed to inspire intense emotions.

While politicians are campaigning as if their lives depend on it, we must also consider the first two weeks after the elections, which could be South Africa's most important political period of the next few years. It is during this time that multiple and complex decisions about coalitions, party leaderships, provincial premiers and the Cabinet will be made. This period might well determine the longer-term future of our country.

Once again the idea of a ‘national dialogue' outside of elections is gaining currency in SA. There have been repeated calls for such a process for many years, with a suggestion that South Africa's multipronged crisis is so bad that only a ‘second Codesa' can fix it. Unfortunately, such an event is unlikely to happen — and even if it does, it is difficult to believe it would change anything.

Once again the idea of a 'national dialogue' outside of elections is gaining currency in SA.

With less than two weeks until the 29 May polls, there is more evidence that the electoral fortunes of the ANC will be under far less severe stress than was initially thought. New polling data suggest the ANC's campaigning is having an impact.

With less than two weeks until the 29 May polls, there is more evidence that the electoral fortunes of the ANC will be under far less severe stress than was initially thought.