Una Galani

A sense of relief permeated Hong Kong’s annual gathering of Global Financial Leaders this week as a truce in the Sino-American trade war and a rebound in Chinese equities set a relaxed tone for discussions. An impressive roster of executives, including Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz and Macquarie CEO Shemara Wikramanayake, convened at the Rosewood hotel - recently crowned the world's best - to discuss global trade, private markets and energy. At a dinner the night before, delegates watched a robot demonstrate boxing and were introduced to the city's most extreme trail runners. Yet even as the mood in Hong Kong brightens, the opportunity for global firms is shifting.

In just a decade the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has become a credible lender distinct from Beijing’s Belt and Road. Doing half its lending alongside US-led peers like the World Bank helped. As Washington rethinks its international role, AIIB may have to recalibrate too.

The world’s second-largest economy posted a record $1 trln trade surplus for the first 11 months of 2025. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how Beijing’s plan to make high-end tech goods has paid off, and why a US trade war could spoil the party.

President Xi Jinping’s campaign to end ruinous price wars and curb overcapacity in the world’s second-largest economy will fatten corporate profits. If it lasts, that could turn mandated payouts into lasting returns – and provide China’s $15 trln equities a sturdier backbone.

The ​US-Israel war on Iran ⁠is throttling ​oil and gas supplies. ​The disruption will prompt countries to build ​up big stockpiles ​like China, which may ‌have ⁠around 1 bln barrels in reserve. When governments put ​resilience ​over ⁠efficiency, the result is higher ​oil prices ​for ⁠longer.

Sentiment towards ​the $20 trln economy ​is no longer at ⁠rock bottom. Fund ​allocations are recovering and ​foreign investment is rising. China’s innovation edge helps but, ​in an uncertain ​world, investors still prefer liquid exposure ‌they ⁠can cut quickly.

Beijing ​may mirror US constraints on Anthropic by limiting foreign ‌access to advanced AI models. Confining $92 bln Zhipu, Moonshot and others to local users and funds would slow their progress. And ​other countries would be more likely to build ​their own tech despite the expense.

After a plunge in ‌the $877 bln AI memory chip maker's Seoul stock, its new US paper is at a 36% premium, ​nearly double TSMC's offshore bump. SK ​Hynix shares aren't fully fungible, and a ⁠weak won and scarce capital inflows give ​South Korea little reason to change that.

The $74 bln ‌startup is prepping a listing despite founder Liang Wenfeng's focus on advancing AI frontiers over ​monetisation. Existing backers like Tencent have ​their own models to finance and state ⁠support is finite. For Beijing, the ​public route offers both risk and opportunity.

China wants tighter controls on cross-border flows, which could make it harder for Hong Kong to sustain its new position as the world’s top offshore centre. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate what this means for HSBC, AIA and China’s economy.