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(Kitco News) - Central bank demand has been a solid pillar of support for the gold market as prices pushed to all-time highs at the start of the year. According to the latest report from the World Gold Council, official-sector demand is expected to remain robust for the foreseeable future.The WGC 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, published Tuesday, showed that 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to increase over the next 12 months, while a record 45% expect their own institutions to add to their reserves.The survey comes at a historic moment for the precious metal. The WGC noted that gold recently surpassed U.S. Treasuries to become the world's largest reserve asset, underscoring a dramatic shift in how official institutions are managing their wealth.In an interview with Kitco News, Shaokai Fan, Global Head of Central Banks at the World Gold Council, said the survey demonstrates that official-sector confidence in gold remains exceptionally strong."Central banks are still very positive on gold. In fact, more positive than ever," Fan said, noting that the percentage of respondents planning to increase their gold reserves rose to a record 45% this year from 43% in 2025, despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil.The survey itself suggests that central bankers increasingly view gold as a strategic monetary asset rather than a passive legacy holding. Eighty-four percent of respondents expect gold to represent a larger share of global reserves within five years, while 74% expect the U.S. dollar's share of reserves to decline over the same period.The findings reinforce a trend that has transformed reserve management over the last decade. Central banks have purchased an average of 1,000 tonnes of gold annually over the last four years, double the pace seen during the previous decade.Fan said one of the most notable developments is that interest in gold is spreading across a broader group of central banks."We're seeing newer central banks starting to emerge," he said, pointing to countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Guatemala, and El Salvador that have recently entered the market or resumed purchases after years of inactivity. "The base on which central banks are buying is expanding."While emerging-market central banks remain the dominant buyers, Fan noted that interest is no longer confined to developing economies. The survey showed that 18% of advanced-economy central banks also expect to increase their gold holdings over the next year.Fan said central banks are increasingly discussing gold internally as reserve managers evaluate how best to diversify their portfolios amid growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty."The number of conversations that we've been having over the past one or two years has definitely picked up," he said. "More central banks are approaching us, new central banks are approaching us."The survey found that reserve diversification remains the primary reason for buying gold, followed by the need for a stronger hedge against economic risks and concerns surrounding reserve-currency economies. Thirty-one of the 34 central banks planning to increase gold reserves cited diversification as a key motivation.The survey shows that reserve managers also continue to value gold's traditional monetary characteristics. A record 90% of respondents cited gold's performance during times of crisis as a major reason for holding the metal, while 84% pointed to its role as a long-term store of value and inflation hedge, and 83% highlighted its diversification benefits.Fan said those responses were particularly striking because they came during the latest conflict in the Middle East."The most relevant factor this year was gold's performance during times of crisis," he said. "If anything, it's even more relevant than before."He added that recent geopolitical tensions have not changed central banks' long-term assessment of the metal."Central banks are valuing more than ever gold's performance during times of crisis, gold's role as a long-term store of value, gold as a portfolio diversifier, gold being able to be a geopolitical hedge," Fan said.The growing importance of gold is also reflected in participation levels. This year's survey attracted 76 responses, the highest on record and up from 73 last year. Fan said the growing response rate is itself evidence that gold is becoming increasingly important within the official sector."That fact alone points out that gold is much more relevant, much more front and center as a topic among central banks," he said.

(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are firmer and spot silver prices are also higher in early U.S. trading Tuesday, as oil prices extended their U.S.-Iran deal selloff, Treasury yields eased and traders positioned for the June 16-17 Federal Reserve meeting. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,343.20 an ounce, up 0.81%, while spot silver was trading at $70.47, up 0.86% on the session.The macro setup is still being driven by the energy-to-rates channel. The May inflation data kept the Fed-rate debate restrictive, but the collapse in crude from last week’s Hormuz-risk highs has taken pressure off inflation expectations and supported a bid in precious metals. The FOMC meeting begins Tuesday and concludes Wednesday, with the updated Summary of Economic Projections making the rate-path signal more important than the decision itself.The U.S. and Iran have a tentative deal to end their conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and continue negotiations for 60 days, but Israel has rejected a condition tied to withdrawal from Lebanon and the agreement has not been made public. Oil is the clearest transmission asset: Brent fell below $80 a barrel for the first time since early March after reports that Iranian tankers had resumed shipping. For gold, the impact is two-sided: reduced war risk caps the pure safe-haven bid, while lower oil and softer yields support the rate-sensitive side of the trade. For equities, the immediate read-through is constructive for airlines, chips and broader risk appetite, while energy shares remain under pressure.U.S. equity futures pointed to modest gains before the open, with S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Dow futures up 0.1% and Nasdaq futures up 0.3%. The move followed Monday’s relief rally and a continuing drop in crude, while Japan’s Nikkei briefly topped 70,000 after the Bank of Japan raised its key rate to 1%, its highest level in three decades.The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $78.40 a barrel, while Brent crude was around $80.80 in early U.S. trade before later slipping below $80. The U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is lower in early trade, with no approved live intraday level included.Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the 200-day exponential moving average, with a sustained move targeting the 50-day exponential moving average and then the $4,600 area. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,200, with deeper downside targets at $4,000 and then the lower end of the recent correction range. First resistance is seen at the 200-day exponential moving average and then at the 50-day exponential moving average. First support is seen at $4,200 and then at $4,000.Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $70.00, with a move above that zone targeting the 50-day exponential moving average near $74.60 and then the $72.47 to $74.60 resistance area. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below the 200-day exponential moving average, with deeper downside targets at $63.50 and then $60.00. First resistance is seen at $72.47 and then at $74.60. Next support is seen at the 200-day exponential moving average and then at $63.50.

.embed-container { position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; height: 0; overflow: hidden; max-width: 100%; } .embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container embed { position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; }Bitcoin reaches the bounce target but remains strong bearishBitcoin delivered the expected bullish bounce on Monday’s “peace” pump, piercing both the daily TBO Cloud and the daily TBO Fast line. That move satisfied the bounce target, but the larger confirmation is still missing because Bitcoin did not close inside the Cloud.As long as BTC remains outside the Cloud on a closing basis, the read remains strong bearish. The immediate level to watch is the new TBO Support around $63,418. The expectation is not for an immediate dump, but rather a slow grind back toward support if the failed confirmation continues to play out.The developing BTC bear flag keeps deeper risk on the boardMonday’s higher high allows a new parallel channel to be drawn from the June 5 low to the June 6 higher low, with the upper channel aligned to the June 7 high. Monday’s high landed near the top of that structure, making the setup look like a developing bear flag.Bear flags form higher lows and higher highs after a significant bearish drop, then often lose support, retest that broken support as resistance, and move lower. If BTC were to break down immediately, the projected target would be near $45,000. That target is notable because it sits below the next artificial support target around $49,000.Ethereum overcompensates but still fails to confirmEthereum also moved sharply on Monday, closing up more than 4% and piercing well into the daily TBO Cloud. But like Bitcoin, ETH did not close inside the Cloud, which leaves it in strong bearish mode despite the size of the move.The main distinction is RSI. ETH’s RSI broke clearly above overhead resistance and reached 60.24, which is a structural improvement. Even so, the chart is not clean enough to treat as a bullish reversal. ETH is already giving back the move after tagging the Fast line, and the trading plan remains focused on short exposure at the Fast line, taking profits on a move toward $1,600, and watching the new artificial support near $1,505.Dominance and market-cap charts do not confirm broad risk-onThe most frustrating outcome from the Sunday pump was combined stablecoin dominance closing inside the daily TBO Cloud. That sets the chart back after it had been close to breaking out above 13%, and it suggests more chop may be ahead.BTC dominance also rejected from the daily TBO Fast line. Some flow moved into ETH.D and SOL.D, while surprisingly little moved into OTHERS.D. Market-cap charts echo that mixed read: TOTALES wicked into the daily Cloud but failed to close inside it, TOTALE50 closed red inside the Cloud, and TOTALE100 remains below the Cloud in strong bearish mode.TradFi snaps back while DXY and Japan remain pressure pointsDXY tagged its Fast line on Monday but still closed above the Cloud, maintaining strong bullish mode. RSI cooled off, and another move into the Cloud is possible, but the chart currently looks more like a retrace before a higher move. A push above historical TBO Resistance near 100.300 would likely put pressure on FX pairs and TradFi indices.EURUSD tagged its Fast line, pierced short-term support, and continues to follow a bump-and-run pattern toward historical TBO Support around 1.14428. USDJPY remains in high-alert mode above 160. The Bank of Japan confirmed a 25 bps rate hike to 1% and said it would continue raising rates if inflation and activity justify it, adding another macro pressure point to monitor.ALT pumps are mostly Fast-line rejection opportunitiesThe ALT section produced plenty of movement, but the main theme was not clean bullish reversal. XRP closed inside the Cloud and moved into bullish consolidation despite a still-bearish daily Cloud and OBV. BNB tagged the Fast line but failed to close inside the Cloud, SOL closed inside the Cloud but still looks strong bearish, and several charts simply wicked into or tagged their Fast lines.There were standout moves. HYPE continues its bullish ascent toward TBO Resistance at 75.509, ZEC closed above its first resistance fan level, AERO closed above the daily Cloud, and SPX6900 pumped more than 15%. But the broader lesson remains the same in bearish conditions: Fast-line pumps create two opportunities, either selling the bounce after buying the dip or opening/adding to short entries on the pullback.Learn my strategies and the tools I use every day by visiting The Complete Cryptocurrency Investor by Mastering Assets.

The Part Of Trading Most People Do Not Talk AboutI’ll be the first to admit that the markets hooked me early.Not only because of the financial opportunity, but because of the energy. There is something about watching price move, seeing a setup develop, and feeling that pressure of a decision that can pull you in very quickly. In my early years, I could spend hours in front of the screen, scanning charts, looking for the next move, and feeling like something important was always about to happen.That excitement is real.And for many people who enjoy trading, it is part of the attraction.But over time, I learned something important. The same excitement that makes markets interesting can also become dangerous when it starts influencing the capital meant to protect your future.That is a hard lesson because the problem does not always feel like a problem at first. It feels like engagement. It feels like focus. It feels like being involved. But if the need for action begins to drive decisions, the market can slowly turn from a place of opportunity into one where emotion starts taking over.I know that because I have lived it.I have chased trades because I did not want to miss out. I have taken setups that were not as strong as I wanted them to be because I wanted something to do. I have felt the frustration of sitting still while the market moved without me. And I have learned that if the urge for excitement is not managed, it eventually finds its way into decisions where it does not belong.When Excitement Starts Competing With DisciplineThe problem with market adrenaline is that it usually shows up at the wrong time.It appears after a big move has already happened. It shows up after a loss, when the temptation to make the money back quickly becomes stronger. It shows up during slow periods, when patience starts feeling like inactivity. It shows up when everyone else seems to be doing something, and waiting begins to feel like falling behind.That is where many mistakes begin.A person may start with a plan, but that plan becomes harder to follow when market pressures arise. A trade that should have been skipped gets taken. A position becomes too large. A rule gets bent. A stop gets ignored. None of it usually happens all at once. It happens little by little, as emotion starts taking over the role that structure was supposed to play.This is why I do not believe the answer is to pretend the urge for action does not exist.It does exist.For some people, it is part of why they became interested in markets in the first place. The better question is whether that urge should be allowed to influence the money that is meant to protect retirement, lifestyle, family plans, and the years ahead.That is where my thinking changed over time.The older I got, and the more investors I worked with, the clearer it became that not all capital should be treated the same way. Money used for learning, testing, or short-term trading is very different from money that represents long-term security. The emotional tolerance may be different. The time horizon may be different. The consequences of a large loss are definitely different.When capital is meant to support the years ahead, it deserves more than excitement.It deserves structure.The Shift From Action To AlignmentFor me, the real shift was learning that being involved in the market does not always mean placing a trade.There are many ways to stay engaged without exposing important capital to unnecessary risk. I can study market stages. I can review sector strength. I can test ideas. I can build watchlists. I can observe price behavior and wait for conditions to improve. None of that is wasted time.In fact, some of the most important work happens when nothing is being bought or sold.That is difficult for many investors to accept because the market makes action feel productive. If something is moving, we feel like we should be doing something. But a structured process teaches a different lesson. It teaches that action only matters when conditions support it.That is one of the reasons I developed such a strong respect for rules.A rule does not care whether I am bored. It does not care whether I feel like I am missing out. It does not care whether headlines are making people excited or afraid. A rule exists to keep the decision tied to evidence instead of emotion.That is the foundation of how I think about Asset Revesting.Asset Revesting is not about draining the excitement out of markets. It is about making sure the capital meant to protect the years ahead is managed by process, not adrenaline. It recognizes that large losses can cost more than money. They can cost time, confidence, flexibility, and the ability to keep moving forward without spending years trying to recover.At The Technical Traders, the way we put that philosophy into practice is through ACS, our rules-based process for adjusting exposure as conditions change. When conditions are favorable, participation has a role. When conditions weaken, protection deserves more attention. When the market does not offer enough evidence, patience can be the discipline.That can feel boring at times.But boring is not always bad.Boredom Can Be A Sign The Process Is WorkingOne of the hardest things for action-oriented investors to accept is that waiting can be productive.When ACS is in cash or defensive assets, it can feel frustrating, especially if the market continues higher for a period of time. I understand that feeling completely. There is always a part of the mind that wants to compare, question, and wonder whether something is being missed.But cash is not always a mistake.Sometimes it is simply the process refusing to force risk when the evidence does not support it.One member described that shift in a way that stayed with me. He said, “Holding cash while markets trend upward is frustrating, but I’ve reframed it as a purposeful strategy to protect capital and stay patient for high-probability setups.”That is exactly the mindset change many investors need.The purpose is not to make every market moment feel exciting. The purpose is to avoid turning every market moment into a personal emotional decision.Another ACS member said, “The strategy lets me check in once a day and still make money. The rest of the time I get my adrenaline going from traveling and hobbies instead of risking my retirement account.”That comment may be one of the clearest ways to explain the point of this article.The market can be interesting. It can be challenging. It can even be exciting. But the capital meant to support retirement and the years ahead should not have to serve as the source of adrenaline.There are better places to find excitement in life.The Return That Does Not Show Up On A StatementFor a long time, I measured success mostly by financial return. Did the trade work? Did the system make money? Did the account grow?Those things still matter. Of course they do.But I have also learned to value another kind of return, the emotional return of having a process that allows you to live better.A strategy can make money and still keep someone stressed, glued to the screen, second-guessing every move, and unable to enjoy anything outside the market. I have experienced that personally, and I have seen it in others.That is not the kind of success I want to build around anymore.The better question is whether a process can help grow and protect capital while also reducing the emotional burden of investing. Can it help someone stop reacting to every headline? Can it help them avoid using fear or FOMO as a decision-making tool? Can it protect not only money, but the time and mental space that money is supposed to support?That is why separating market excitement from wealth protection matters so much.Trading is as much about managing yourself as it is about managing your account. The adrenaline may never disappear completely, and for people who love markets, it probably should not. But it needs boundaries. It needs structure. It needs to be kept away from the capital that funds the future.The goal is not to eliminate the part of us that enjoys the markets.The goal is to stop that part from taking control.When investors can make that shift, the experience changes. They are no longer fighting themselves as much. They are no longer relying on constant action to feel engaged. They begin to understand that patience, cash, and reduced exposure can all play a role when guided by process.And that is when the market becomes less about adrenaline and more about alignment.Alignment with conditions. Alignment with discipline. Alignment with the life the money is meant to support.

(Kitco News) – With less than 24 hours to go before new Fed chair Kevin Warsh delivers the first rate decision of his tenure, markets are fully priced in for a rate hold. But as traders digest the latest economic projections, experts will be carefully watching the new chair’s choice of words, his characterization of the U.S. economy, the job market and inflation pressures – along with any indication that the world's most powerful central bank has become less independent.Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, told Kitco News he doesn’t expect to see a major shift in tone from Powell to Warsh, and he expects the Fed will continue to let the data dictate monetary policy.“He's going to go by the data,” Grady said. “At the beginning of the year, we had a lot of people talking about rate cuts. The last few weeks, all of a sudden, it's ‘Wait a minute, inflation's starting to tick up again, energy prices are higher. We may actually have a rate increase.’”“That's why I don't really listen to those pundits. I think he's going to be critiquing the data and looking at it with a clear lens. I think he's going to have a clear picture of where the economy truly is, and I think he's going to act appropriately.”Grady said he doesn’t expect the Warsh-led Fed to be any more favorable to the Trump administration than it was during Powell’s tenure.“I think he's going to go with an even balance,” he said. “I don't think it has anything to do with Trump; I think he's going to be pragmatic about it. He's going to look at the situation, and he's going to say, ‘Don't come into this meeting with any preconceived notions. We're going to go in with an open mind. We're going to see where the numbers actually are. I don't want to hear about what people think they could be.’”Grady said the doom-and-gloom scenarios predicted by many of the economic pundits have simply failed to materialize, and it’s hurt their credibility at this point.“We've heard it for so long, with tariffs and all this other stuff,” he said. “There's a lot of people, unfortunately, that want to talk the economy down, and they've been doing it for a long time.”Grady said fears about the Federal Reserve’s continued independence from political interference under Warsh are also exaggerated.“I think there's going to be a lot of people that will say, whatever he does, ‘Oh, he's listening to Trump,’” he said. “You can't get away from it. But those are the same pundits that have been talking the economy down, and saying how there's no jobs and so on. But the data just doesn't bear that out.”John Murillo, Chief Business Officer at B2BROKER, told Kitco News on Tuesday that tomorrow’s Fed meeting is about everything but the rate decision.“The real catalyst will be the Fed's messaging and whether incumbent Chairman Kevin Warsh reinforces the idea that policy will remain restrictive well into 2027,” he said.Murillo said that if the Fed delivers a hawkish surprise – either through its dot plot or its guidance – the first reaction will likely occur in the Treasury market. “Higher expected real yields would push bond yields even higher, hurting risk-on sentiment, particularly when it comes to the front end of the curve,” he said. “Once proven true, higher yields will support the U.S. dollar, and a stronger dollar typically creates headwinds for gold. Investors should not be surprised to see a pullback if markets begin pricing out any remaining expectations of policy easing.”Murillo cautioned, however, that it would be a mistake to confuse a Fed-driven correction with a reversal of the broader trend.“Gold continues to benefit from several structural forces that monetary policy alone cannot undermine,” he said. “Central banks remain significant buyers as they diversify reserves, geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continue to sustain demand for defensive assets, and persistent concerns over U.S. fiscal deficits encourage long-term allocation to hard assets.”For this reason, Murillo said that any weakness in precious metals that follows a hawkish Fed meeting will likely attract buying rather than triggering a sustained bear market.“In the near term, the sequence to watch is bonds, then the dollar, then gold,” he said. “Over the longer horizon, structural demand remains the dominant factor.”Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart, told Kitco News that the Federal Reserve has a serious credibility problem, and it will persist long after tomorrow’s meeting.“The whole thing was laid out when the U.S. President said he loves the inflation,” Newsom said. “It was a very simple statement, basically tipping their hand. The message here is that Warsh is not going to be allowed to raise rates anytime soon. The Fed Fund futures forward curve is saying the next rate hike is pushed back to December, which also makes sense. The next move will be a hike, but it will not occur before the November midterms.”“It doesn't matter what everybody else feels, what everybody else is doing,” he added. “That's the situation we have right now going into [the Fed meeting].”Newsom believes Warsh’s job is actually very simple, as he will not be called on to make any difficult decisions.“There is no decision to be made; all of the decisions are going to be made in the White House,” Newsom said. “That's why Warsh got the job. He has one job, and that is to do whatever the President tells him.”Regarding the rise in dissenting Fed votes and voices, Newsom acknowledged that Warsh represents only one vote on the FOMC and cannot dictate monetary policy on his own, but he believes Trump has plenty of loyalists on the committee.“Yes, there's going to be dissent,” he said. “But the U.S. President has enough people on the FOMC that it will do whatever he says. Remember, that is what he campaigned on, is that he wanted final say – not any president, just him, to have final say on any interest rate decisions – and that's what he got. It doesn't matter what Warsh says. It doesn't matter if there's dissent. The decision will come from the U.S. President.”The key for Trump, Newsom said, is not so much the move itself, but the timing of any move. “He's not going to get the cut that he wants, so it's probably going to be a hold and no hike, but it’s not going to happen until possibly the end of 2026. We'll see what happens as we get deeper into the fall, what other things occur as far as inflation goes, because that is still the problem, and then maybe it gets pushed back to early 2027.”As for the language and characterization of the U.S. economy from the new Fed chair, Newsom said he’s expecting to hear the same kinds of caution and concerns as from Warsh’s predecessor, but he thinks it will all be empty posturing.“He will say all those things,” Newsom said. “He'll say, ‘Oh, yes, we're still independent.’ There's absolutely not one set of investors in the world who believe it anymore. There is no belief, there is no standing, and there's really nothing Warsh can say to change that. He will read from the script he's given: ‘We're independent, we're looking out for the economy, we're watching jobs, we're watching inflation.’ But none of it is real. None of it is true. And the rest of the world knows it.”“Once Chairman Powell stepped down, the U.S. Fed lost all credibility,” he said. “And that's why central banks are still buying gold.”Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker at StoneX Group, told Kitco News he expects Warsh will try to rein in interest rates as much as possible through words rather than by resorting to policy changes at this stage.“I don't think he's going to make any major moves, but he's going to try to condition the market for expectations of being more on the side of rate cuts, talking down [Treasuries], walking the 10-year and 2-year and the 30-year back from the brink.”“Rather than cutting rates, maybe there's other tricks in the toolbox to push rates lower.”Pavilonis said there’s merit in the positive and the negative views on the U.S. economy, and the new Fed chair will need to allow for both perspectives to prove true.“As far as Warsh is concerned, I think it's just basically trying to condition the market for what he's there to do,” he said. “Being data dependent, you can look at the data in different ways: The glass is either half empty or half full. I think that's probably what's going on there.”Pavilonis said the people worried about inflation shouldn’t discount the possibility that prices could come down quickly if the new Iran deal holds – and the dissent on the Fed could go with it.“I think that if there is some kind of peace here, you'll see energies sell off even more, and a lot of oil come back onto the market very quickly – maybe over-correct oil further than what was expected,” he said. “All of this can happen pretty quick; When oil hit $147 per barrel, it was trading at $30 a barrel less than four weeks later, so that stuff can happen. If there is an actual deal here, and oil sells off, I think those inflation numbers are really going to reflect that.”“If that's the case, then a lot of those dissenters might start to neutralize,” he said. “I think that's probably the bottom line there.”As for the likely direction of the overall market, Pavilonis said he expects the Trump administration will pursue policies that favor equities until after the congressional elections in November.“I still think they're going to run the markets hot into the midterms,” he said.

(Kitco News) - The gold market continues to hold on to solid gains after testing critical support near $4,000 an ounce, but one market strategist believes the precious metal remains trapped in a broad consolidation phase as investors wait for greater clarity on interest rates and inflation.In an interview with Kitco News, Tom Bruce, Macro Investment Strategist at Tanglewood Total Wealth Management, said that he is relatively neutral on gold in the near term, but the longer-term outlook for the precious metal remains constructive.Bruce described the current environment as one of the most difficult periods to assess for gold investors.He explained that gold's advance to record highs at the start of the year was initially driven by aggressive central bank purchases, as nations diversified away from U.S. dollar-denominated assets, and by speculative momentum. However, much of that enthusiasm has since faded as investors redirected capital toward high-growth sectors such as artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks."The element that was driving [gold prices] a lot higher at the beginning of the year seems to have moved on," he said. "Now gold is being driven by its traditional drivers — interest rates."With geopolitical fears easing and safe-haven demand failing to materialize in a meaningful way, Bruce said gold has become increasingly sensitive to real interest rate expectations. While that creates uncertainty in the short term, he does not see a major breakdown developing."It's really consolidation right now," he said, describing the current market as more of a positioning phase than the start of a significant downtrend.Bruce added that the metal has already absorbed a substantial amount of negative news after successfully holding key technical support around $4,000 an ounce."It's come down a lot already, and it held that $4,000 support level," he said. "A material break below there would be more concerning for me."Although investor enthusiasm has cooled, Bruce said he is not seeing widespread liquidation of gold positions. Instead, many investors appear content to chase stronger-performing equity sectors while maintaining existing exposure to precious metals.Despite the current lackluster investor interest, Bruce said that the longer-term bullish drivers have not disappeared.He pointed to concerns over currency debasement, the possibility of lower real interest rates, and, most importantly, the prospect that central bank buying could reaccelerate after a slowdown this year."We should look at this as a pause for central bank buying in large part. I think overall, if you have a resumption of this demand, then you have more upside ahead in gold," he said. "I would say central bank buying resuming would probably be the quickest path to getting back to record highs."In the near term, Bruce expects gold to remain rangebound as markets assess the Federal Reserve's next move. He explained that expectations for a more hawkish monetary policy may already be largely reflected in current prices."There is very little chance of a cut," he said. "But if there's any hint that they're going to just maintain rates this year—not even cut, but just maintain—that would still be positive for gold."As the Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day monetary policy meeting, markets are still pricing in a nearly 50/50 chance of a rate hike by the end of the year.

.embed-container { position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; height: 0; overflow: hidden; max-width: 100%; } .embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container embed { position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; }In this presentation, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group gives a precious metals update focused on gold, silver, platinum, and palladium prices. He also explains how CPM Group analyzes supply, demand, investment demand, as well as market balances. Jeff discusses the gold price outlook, silver market update, price consolidation, and the potential for continued volatility over the next several months.Jeff then explains why CPM Group separates investment demand from fabrication demand when calculating precious metals surpluses and deficits. He discusses the difference between metal used by fabricators and metal bought by investors, why investment demand is a major driver of gold, silver, and platinum prices, and why including investment demand with fabrication demand can distort the view of the physical market.The presentation also looks CPM Group’s historical buy and sell recommendations for gold, silver, and platinum, showing how better research, better data, and a disciplined approach to supply and demand analysis can lead to stronger investment results.CPM thanks Monetary Metals for making this paid CPM research available to our viewers.If you're interested in learning more about how gold leasing works, visitwww.Monetary-Metals/CPM

(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are higher and spot silver prices are near steady after the close Tuesday, as falling crude oil, lower Treasury yields and a softer U.S. dollar supported gold ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,331.10 an ounce, up 0.50%, while spot silver was trading at $69.995, down 0.01% on the session.The macro setup is being driven by the oil-to-rates channel. Brent crude fell below $80 a barrel for the first time since early March, after reports that Iranian tankers had resumed shipping and that Washington and Tehran had virtually signed an agreement to end the blockade, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin 60 days of nuclear negotiations. Lower oil prices pulled Treasury yields lower and weakened the dollar, giving gold support even as reduced geopolitical risk capped the haven bid.The initial Strait of Hormuz deal has improved supply expectations, but tanker traffic remains limited, shipping insurance risk is unresolved and analysts still expect the physical oil-market repair process to take weeks to months. The current market impact is clear: oil is lower, inflation-risk pressure has eased, the 10-year Treasury yield has moved lower, equities are mixed rather than broadly risk-on and gold is trading more like a rates asset than a war hedge. Silver is steadier because lower yields are supportive, but a softer oil complex also reduces the inflation and industrial stress that helped drive the earlier silver bid.Markets enter Wednesday’s Fed decision positioned for no rate change but for a potentially more important reset in language, projections and communication. The meeting is Kevin Warsh’s first as Fed chair, and the updated Summary of Economic Projections is the main risk event for metals. The baseline is a hold in the 3.50% to 3.75% target range, while traders are focused on whether the Fed drops the easing bias, removes the remaining 2026 cut from the dot plot or signals a higher-for-longer path as inflation remains above target. For gold and silver, the positioning risk is asymmetric: a less-hawkish Warsh tone would reinforce the lower-yield rebound, while a dot plot that validates later-year hikes would put the $4,300 gold floor and the $68 silver zone back in play.U.S. stocks finished mixed, with the Dow at another record and AI-linked shares weighing on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 fell 42.94 points, or 0.6%, to 7,511.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 328.64 points, or 0.6%, to 51,999.67. The Nasdaq Composite fell 307.60 points, or 1.2%, to 26,376.34. The Russell 2000 fell 25.89 points, or 0.9%, to 2,939.19.The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower, while Brent crude fell below $80 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is lower, with no approved live intraday DXY level included.Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,370.00 to $4,390.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,580.00 and then $4,600.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,300.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,200.00 and then $4,180.00. First resistance is seen at $4,370.00 and then at $4,390.00. First support is seen at $4,300.00 and then at $4,200.00.Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $71.00 to $72.00 resistance zone, with a move above that zone targeting the 50-day moving average at $75.42 and then the $78.00 to $79.00 area. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $68.00, with deeper downside targets at $66.00 and then $65.00. First resistance is seen at $71.00 and then at $72.00. Next support is seen at $68.00 and then at $66.00.

Gold prices have held onto the recovery made after hitting a low of $3,946 last Thursday, with spot prices hovering around $4,375 as of Tuesday. The rebound has been meaningful, but the market has since stalled, with neither bulls nor bears willing to commit ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee rate decision. Trading volumes are modest, options markets show traders hedging rather than taking directional positions, and gold’s inability to clear $4,400 a level that has capped multiple rallies this month, underscores the cautious mood on the floor.Wednesday carries unusual weight beyond the rate decision itself: it marks the first public appearance of newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. Confirmed earlier this year following the conclusion of Jerome Powell’s term, Warsh inherits an economy still wrestling with elevated inflation and geopolitical crosscurrents. He has historically been viewed as more hawkish than his predecessor, and gold traders will be dissecting every word of the post-meeting press conference. The dot plot, the Fed’s summary of where individual members expect rates to land over the coming years will be released alongside the decision and could prove to be the most market-moving data point of the week. Fewer projected cuts than markets currently expect would put fresh pressure on gold; a dovish shift acknowledging fading inflationary pressures could be the catalyst for a breakout.Adding another layer of complexity is the newly announced peace deal that President Trump believes could end the conflict that began at the close of February. Traders remain cautious (the agreement is not yet set in stone) but even the credible prospect of a ceasefire is shifting sentiment at the margins. For gold, the conflict has been a double-edged sword: geopolitical instability is classically bullish for safe-haven assets, but the energy disruption it caused stoked inflation fears that ultimately weighed on the metal by pushing up real yields and strengthening the dollar. A durable peace could unwind both dynamics simultaneously, clearing the path for the rate cuts gold bulls have been waiting for.Crude oil markets have not waited for the Fed to act. WTI dropped another 5.59% on Tuesday, bringing the front-month contract to $75 per barrel, just $5 above where it traded before the bombing of Iranian leadership and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent energy prices surging. The swift retreat signals that traders in the energy complex are already pricing in de-escalation, with supply disruption fears ebbing and OPEC+ maintaining its current output trajectory. Some analysts are questioning whether markets are getting ahead of themselves, and that concern echoes across assets.The divergence between oil and gold is striking. With crude back near its March 5th print, the inflation risk premium that drove rate hike fears has largely unwound, yet gold remains almost 15% below where it traded at that same moment. In theory, fading inflation pressure reduces the case for persistently high rates, which should support gold. That it has not rallied in tandem suggests lingering uncertainty around the Fed’s intentions, residual dollar strength, or the possibility that gold simply ran too far during the late-February surge and is working through that excess. Whether this gap represents a value opportunity for patient bulls or a warning sign of deeper macro forces at play, Wednesday’s meeting may provide the clearest answer yet.For those that would like more information about our services click here.Wishing you as always good trading,