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(Kitco News) - Gold prices are once again surging higher, driving to $4,350 an ounce as the U.S. economy lost jobs last month, significantly missing expectations.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July. The jobs number missed consensus forecasts; economists had anticipated job gains of around 85,000. This is the second contraction in the labor market this year.The gold market is seeing significant buying momentum in its initial reaction to the disappointing labor market data. Analysts said that gold investors are now anticipating that the Federal Reserve will be limited in raising rates this year, even in the face of persistent inflation fears, capping real yields.Spot gold last traded at $4,363.70 an ounce, up nearly 3% on the day.Bond markets continue to price in a rate hike in September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets see a roughly 50/50 chance of a rate hike in September.

.embed-container { position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; height: 0; overflow: hidden; max-width: 100%; } .embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container embed { position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; }The Better Traders read for August 7 keeps Bitcoin in bullish consolidation after two daily closes above short-term resistance, but a -1.50% daily close would flip that level back to resistance. Ethereum remains vulnerable if short-term support breaks, rising Bitcoin dominance pressures ALTs, DXY and geopolitical risk weigh on the macro backdrop, commodities are strengthening, and many ALT setups still favor patience rather than chasing.Bitcoin holds two closes above resistance, but the pullback trigger is closeBTC is still holding up in bullish consolidation, with two daily closes confirmed above short-term resistance. The condition is precise: a -1.50% daily close would push price back below the level and flip it to resistance again. RSI briefly pushed above newly established resistance but failed to hold, just as it did on the previous two attempts. The source is hoping the Clarity Act news produces the pullback, while also saying the legislation has no substantial immediate price effect by itself.Ethereum remains vulnerable, but two bearish confirmations are still pendingETH remains slated to fall once it closes below short-term support, a level pierced four times in seven days and now being tested again. RSI is already bearish, but the OBV read still needs another red close with strong volume to damage its moving average. ETH/BTC is also building a bearish divergence cluster on the active candle, yet that cluster remains in progress and cannot be called confirmed. Those conditions matter: the downside thesis is active, but the stated confirmations have not all arrived.Rising Bitcoin dominance adds relative pressure across the ALT marketBTC.D continues toward the top of its Cloud, which typically adds negative pressure to ALTs. SOL.D is already dropping, OTHERS.D keeps moving lower, and OTHERS/BTC supports the bearish ALT view. Dominance measures market share, not spot price, so none of these charts guarantees a direct Bitcoin price move. The signal is relative pressure across the crypto market rather than a standalone spot-price prediction.DXY, equities and geopolitical headlines keep macro risk elevatedDXY bounced from support, which the source views as bad for forex pairs and added pressure on US stocks. The Yen remains troubled: USDJPY would need to break below 155.025 before a long-liquidation cascade could begin, making that a conditional confirmation rather than a forecast. S&P futures printed another red day, while SPX and DJI resistance moved to fresh pivot highs that may still be surpassed. News involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz keeps the recent equity recovery exposed to renewed macro risk.Oil jumps while metals and uranium retain constructive structureWTI rose 4% as Middle East tensions remained unresolved. Gold still looks constructive with potential to move higher, and Silver is expected to follow and outperform Gold. Platinum pierced long-term overhead support for a second day, Copper printed a daily breakout, and Uranium remained in bullish consolidation below immediate overhead resistance. PAXG/BTC has not moved yet, with 0.06878 identified as the resistance level to watch. These are source observations and conditional levels, not guaranteed outcomes.ALT support losses and compressed Clouds reward patienceSOL closed below support but fell only -1.81%. TRX's daily Cloud compressed to about 0.55%, creating a potentially explosive squeeze without determining direction. The prior ADA short was stopped; only an upper-Cloud tag would create the conditional short entry described in the source. CC's oversold-bounce idea is only for risk-takers, SUI is about to lose support, and DOT's bullish entry is explicitly too early with better pairs available. AAVE wicked and closed below its Cloud while that Cloud compresses; INJ moved deeper inside its Cloud, with a close below still hoped for; JUP shifted to strong bearish; FET looks weak at historical support; VVV closed below a compressed Cloud; and KAS confirmed a breakdown. PUMP is too early to chase short, LIT invalidated the prior short setup, Binance Life is described as a flaming dumpster fire, and only RIVER is labeled very risky and not chaseable.Learn my strategies and the tools I use every day by visiting The Complete Cryptocurrency Investor by Mastering Assets.

One of the most widely accepted beliefs in investing is that market declines are temporary.Markets fall. Markets recover. Time smooths out the losses.For decades, that idea shaped the foundation of long-term investing. And for many investors, especially during long periods of rising markets, it appeared to work well enough that very few people questioned it.But there is another side to recovery that receives far less attention.Recovery is not free.When a portfolio experiences a major decline, the impact is not measured only in percentages. It is measured in time, in momentum, and in the years spent trying to regain what was already built once before.A 50 percent decline does not require a 50 percent recovery to get back to even. It requires a full 100 percent gain just to get back to even.Most investors understand that mathematically. What they often do not fully understand is what it feels like to live through that recovery process when it stretches far longer than expected.Because at first, recovery feels manageable. You stay patient, remain invested, and trust the process because that is what responsible investors are taught to do.That is what responsible investors are taught to do.But when recovery turns into years instead of months, something begins to change psychologically.The experience stops feeling temporary and starts to feel extended. What once felt manageable begins to feel limiting.You are no longer building momentum.You are no longer progressing toward new goals.You are simply trying to get back to where you already were.This is the recovery trap.And what makes it difficult to recognize is that it rarely feels like a mistake while you are inside it. In fact, it often feels responsible because every surrounding voice reinforces the same message:Stay invested.Be patient.Recovery always comes.But the longer the recovery stretches on, the more it begins affecting things outside the portfolio itself. Plans become delayed, financial decisions become more cautious, and confidence begins to change quietly over time.And eventually, the emotional weight of simply waiting begins replacing the sense of progress that investing was originally meant to create.This is the part many investors never fully anticipate.Because recovery assumes you have the time to wait.But what if the recovery takes longer than expected? What if it takes longer than the time you had planned to give it? Or longer than the time you are comfortable allocating toward simply getting back to where you already were?That is not a market question. It is a life question.When recovery stretches into years, the cost is no longer just financial. It becomes a trade-off. Time spent waiting instead of progressing. Time spent repairing instead of building.In my experience, this is where the old belief begins to feel incomplete. Not because it is entirely wrong, but because it does not account for what is being exchanged in the process.It assumes time is always available. It assumes waiting is neutral.And after living through one of these cycles personally, many investors begin to realize something important:Waiting is not neutral.It carries emotional weight.It affects decisions.And over time, it changes the way people experience investing altogether.Losses do not just reduce capital.They consume time.And time is the one asset that cannot be replaced.

(Kitco News) - Not only has the People’s Bank of China bought gold for 21 straight months, but the central bank has also continued to make solid tactical moves as prices have dropped nearly 30% from their all-time highs at the start of the year.According to the central bank’s latest reserve data, the PBOC bought 20 tonnes of gold in July—the largest monthly increase since October 2023. Since March, the central bank has increased the pace of its monthly purchases.“This lifts YTD net additions to 60 tonnes, and total gold holdings to 2,366 tonnes,” said Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst, EMEA at the World Gold Council (WGC), in a social media post on Friday.While China continues to dominate the marketplace, Gopaul noted that it is not the only central bank increasing its official reserves. In comments on social media, he said that the Czech National Bank increased its reserves by 1.7 tonnes last month. He added that the central bank is another step closer to its 100-tonne target.“YTD net purchases total 12 tonnes, with gold holdings now 84 tonnes,” he said.Gopaul also said that National Bank of Kazakhstan increased its reserves by over 1 tonne last month. He also noted thatAnalysts have said that central bank demand has been a key factor in gold’s ability to hold critical support above $4,000 an ounce.In a note published in late July, commodity analysts at BMO Capital Markets said that they expect growing Chinese demand to be the biggest factor pushing gold prices higher in the second half of the year. They added that most of China’s growing stockpile has gone unreported.“Our new analysis suggests China has accumulated ~30kt of gold above ground, higher than official data, and is now driving ~1/3 of global demand flows,” the analysts said.At the same time, they added that even with its massive undeclared stockpile, China's appetite for gold is likely to remain insatiable for the foreseeable future, eventually surpassing U.S. reserves.They pointed out that if China wants to achieve its goal of making the yuan an international reserve currency to rival the U.S. dollar (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.), it needs to buy significantly more gold in the next five years.Although there is no definitive target for China's gold holdings, BMO analysts said the country's money supply provides a useful benchmark. They pointed out that, at current prices, the Federal Reserve's gold stockpile represents roughly 5% of the U.S. M2 money supply. If China were to achieve the same ratio, its central bank would need to hold about 18,000 tonnes of gold, compared to the roughly 5,222 tonnes it held at the end of last year.“Unsurprisingly, China hasn't disclosed its ultimate gold accumulation targets, but given its stated ambitions for economic expansion and RMB internationalisation, our view is that achieving the U.S.'s level of holdings is an absolute minimum target, implying another ~2,500-3,000t of purchases, achievable in two to five years depending on method,” the analysts said. “Yet aspirations are likely higher still given the need to establish RMB credibility globally.”See live precious metals prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium — in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies.

Last week, we made the case that gold and silver weren't waiting for a September Fed meeting to bottom and that a market refusing to break down after absorbing every piece of bad news isn't weakness; it's a spring compressing. This week, the spring released. Gold posted its best week since January, and December futures that were consolidating near $4,100 just traded through $4,400. The turn we mapped is underway, and every Sunday in our Navigating the Week Ahead report, we lay out the key levels and setups before the trading week opens. If you want to be positioned for the next leg instead of chasing it, sign up here.To understand why this week mattered so much, go back to March 2nd. That was the day crude oil gapped higher, and gold fell $250 an ounce in the same session. From that moment forward, the market was pricing one story: rising energy prices feeding the inflation numbers, and a Fed forced to sound tougher than the economy warranted. Gold spent five months fighting that theme.This week, the entire story reversed. Crude fell roughly 7%, which strips away the very thing that was keeping the Fed hawkish. Yields put in a lower high, with the 2-year pressing down against its 50-day moving average. Then Friday morning delivered the exclamation point: the July jobs report showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs against expectations for a gain of 80,000. Expectations for a September rate hike collapsed. Everything that pushed gold down since March 2nd is now running in the other direction.Daily Gold ChartWhat we find most compelling is what's underneath the price. Central banks never left and official purchases are running 62% higher year over year, while China's central bank is stockpiling gold in Hong Kong to support the city's push to become a major bullion-trading hub. Meanwhile, ETF flows are turning higher but remain down 2.1% year to date — retail is only now coming back, and this rally has happened almost entirely without them.The playbook from here is straightforward. Markets that reverse a five-month narrative in a single week rarely go straight up; they pull back, retest, and shake out late arrivals. We view those dips as buying opportunities. Former resistance near $4,280 and the $4,236 area are the zones we're watching, and as long as rate-hike expectations continue to fade, we believe this market has the fundamental fuel to retest $5,000 before year-end. To get a look at the roadmap ahead, please be sure to register for our Navigating the Week Ahead report.Performance DisclaimerHypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

(Kitco News) - After two months of consolidation and testing support at $4,000 an ounce, the gold market has broken convincingly to the upside as the precious metal sees its best weekly performance since the start of the year.The precious metal is looking to end the week nearly $300 higher. Spot gold last traded at $4,344 an ounce, up more than 7% from last Friday.The yellow metal has benefited from a week of disappointing labor market data, which was capped on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July. The jobs number was significantly worse than expected, as economists were looking for gains of 85,000 jobs.Adding to the underwhelming news, May and June data were revised lower. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1%; however, analysts noted that the drop was actually due to workers leaving the job market.Before the official government data, private-sector payrolls processor ADP reported soft labor market data on Wednesday, saying the private sector created only 44,000 jobs last month, missing expectations. The data sparked gold’s initial push above $4,200 an ounce.Slowing momentum in the labor market, which has been a pillar of growth for the economy, is now prompting markets to adjust their interest rate expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see only a 42% chance of a rate hike in September. Ahead of Friday’s jobs report, markets were pricing in a nearly 60% chance of a 25-basis-point increase.“The data has brought good news for gold and for the markets, but for the Fed, this is another huge problem, especially when inflation is this high. The Fed Chairman now will have to do some serious thinking to keep inflation in check,” said Waleed Said, Technical Analyst at GivTrade.While gold has some room to rise next week, some analysts are warning investors not to chase this 7% move, as there are still significant risks in the marketplace. Although markets are starting to push back on rate hikes, inflation remains the Federal Reserve’s major focus.In an interview with Kitco News, Roukaya Ibrahim, chief commodities strategist at BCA Research, said that gold was an attractive buy at $4,000 an ounce, but after this week’s move, investors need to be patient.“I think at the current juncture inflation is the dominant policy target, rather than the labor market,” she said.Next week will provide a significant challenge for gold as markets focus on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Economists have said that hotter-than-expected inflation could force the Federal Reserve to maintain its tightening bias, which could prompt investors to take quick profits in gold.Ibrahim added that she would be looking to buy any weakness in gold as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance remains limited, capping real interest rates and the U.S. dollar (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.) .Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, said that while he is bullish on gold in the near term, he sees limited gains as the Federal Reserve is unlikely to abandon its tightening policy in the face of persistent inflation pressures.“The bulls still need to do some groundwork. During the latest rally, the price approached but failed to break through the 50-week moving average – an important signal line for the long-term trend. It currently stands near $4,400, whilst at $4,500,” he said. “All things considered, we expect an interesting battle in gold this coming week, with the struggle intensifying following the release of US CPI and PPI data. The path to 4,500 may prove relatively easy, but beyond that, we should brace ourselves for a very significant tug-of-war.”Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst at FOREX, said that while gold’s breakout has attracted renewed investor attention, next week’s price action will be important in determining whether there is any follow-through.“I doubt the weak jobs report will have a lasting impact on gold, even if this does reduce the probability of a September rate hike. There are still two more CPI reports to come and an additional jobs report before the Fed meets, while uncertainty about oil prices remain. So, there are a lot of factors that could still work in the favour of the dollar and against gold,” he said. “If oil prices and inflationary pressures remain elevated, the Federal Reserve will have to maintain its tightening bias even if there is further weakness in the labor market.”Nicky Shiels, Head of Research and Metals Strategy at MKS PAMP, raised concerns that gold has moved too far, too fast, which could prompt “fast money” to take profits. She added that the Fed’s tightening bias remains a major obstacle for gold.“CPI needs to really miss next week for expectations of the Fed remaining on hold throughout this year, which will provide the assurance for Gold to probe $4500,” she said.While inflation data will be the major focus next week, U.S. retail sales will also create some volatile price action. Weak consumption data could put further pressure on markets to price out rate hikes next month. However, stronger-than-expected data would give the U.S. central bank room to raise rates.Economic data to watch next week:Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision, US Existing Home SalesWednesday: US CPIThursday: US PPI, US weekly jobless claimsFriday: US Retail Sales, University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer SentimentSee live precious metals prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium — in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies.

(Kitco News) - Gold investors have spent much of 2026 confronting a frustrating paradox: the geopolitical and fiscal backdrop has arguably never looked more supportive for a safe-haven asset, yet gold has struggled in recent months as rising real interest rate expectations have dramatically increased the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding metal.However, the important question for gold investors is no longer whether real yields are high; they unquestionably are. The question is whether they can move materially higher from here. For a growing number of analysts, the answer is: no.This week BCA Research argued that “the worst of real rates’ headwind to gold is likely behind us,” with Chief Commodities Strategist Roukaya Ibrahim noting that investors do not need Federal Reserve rate cuts to ignite another rally. They simply need real yields and the U.S. dollar to stop rising.That distinction is critical.Gold has already absorbed an extraordinary monetary-policy repricing. At the beginning of the year, markets anticipated one or two rate cuts. Today, investors are contemplating one or two hikes. Jefferies estimates that 10-year TIPS yields have risen to around 2.41% from 1.94% at the start of 2026. That abrupt reversal helped drive gold roughly 25% below its peak.Yet gold continues to defend the psychologically important $4,000-an-ounce level.The World Gold Council noted that gold finished July virtually unchanged at $4,027, even as rising yields remained a headwind. More importantly, European gold ETFs attracted inflows despite real Bund yields sitting at 15-year highs.In other words, gold has survived nearly everything the opportunity-cost argument could throw at it.Jefferies reaches a similar conclusion from history. Gold's performance following previous real-rate shocks depended less on the absolute level of yields than on whether the upward pressure subsequently subsided. The firm argues that much of today's repricing has already occurred and that easing real-rate pressure could allow gold and mining equities to recover.Meanwhile, the structural bullish forces haven't disappeared. Central banks continue accumulating gold, de-dollarization remains an important theme, fiscal concerns haven't gone away, and geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. BCA expects official-sector demand to provide a floor even if central-bank purchases no longer generate the explosive upside they once did.Even inflation could ultimately become supportive, although not for the simplistic reason that gold is an inflation hedge. The World Gold Council argues that inflation becomes much more meaningful when it pushes above 4%, particularly if accompanied by falling real rates, dollar weakness or increasing recession risks.The bullish argument, therefore, doesn't require a collapsing economy, emergency Fed easing or another inflation crisis.It merely requires the forces that pushed gold down to stop getting worse.After one of the most aggressive opportunity-cost shocks gold has faced in years, that threshold may finally have been reached. And if real yields have indeed peaked, gold's biggest headwind could soon become its most important tailwind.See live precious metals prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium — in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies.

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Live Spot Prices for Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium and Rhodium in ounces, grams, kilos and tolas in all major currencies.

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