Allen Strum

As a front approaches the northern Gulf Coast, strong storms will be possible Sunday night and drier air will follow. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has the WEAR-TV area under a slight risk of severe weather Sunday night. A slight risk is a level 2 out of 5 on the scale with 5 being most severe. If severe weather strikes, the most likely impact will be damaging winds.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 1:00 a.m. for NWFL, parts of Alabama and Georgia.

There are now 3 spots in the Tropical Atlantic Basin being monitored. One of them is close to home. Low pressure over the northwest Gulf of Mexico could slowly develop next week if it remains over the warm Gulf waters. If it moves back over land, it will likely fizzle out. The formation chance as of Friday afternoon is low at 10 percent through 2 days and 20 percent through 7 days.

Low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico is bringing rainy weather to the Gulf Coast and Friday is looking to be a washout. The rain chance Friday for the WEAR-TV area is between 90 and 100 percent. Two inches of rain will be possible as rain is forecast morning, midday and Friday night. The wet pattern may spill into Saturday. The rain chance Saturday is a good 50 percent and if it does rain, most of that will be contained to the first half of the day.

Francine is headed to Louisiana but it brings a threat of tornadoes to the NWFL Panhandle and other areas of the Gulf Coast. The most likely time for severe weather will be late Wednesday and overnight into Thursday morning. Waterspouts and tornadoes could develop as rain bands from Francine move onshore. The bigger threat will be along the coastal areas of the Gulf Coast.

As Francine moves over Louisiana and Mississippi, the biggest threat for NWFL and SWAL will be tornadoes.Pockets of heavy rain may include waterspouts or torna

The formation chance for a potential tropical trouble spot has risen twice on Friday. Low pressure could turn into a weather maker over the Gulf of Mexico next week. Not much is happening at this time, which makes knowing exactly what will happen and where it will go nearly impossible. The formation chance is considered medium or 60% through seven days. The formation chance through two days is 0%.

The formation chance for a large area of disorganized low pressure has been lowered. The area of low pressure is over the western Caribbean Sea and is forecast to shift into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The formation chance is now down from 50% to 40% through seven days and 10% through the next two days. If anything does further develop, it would likely be late this week or over the weekend.

A area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico could further develop next week. The formation chance through two days is low at 10% but through seven days the formation chance has jumped back up to 50%. The potential weather maker will move east or northeast over the warm Gulf waters.

Cold weather alerts are in place for parts of the Gulf Coast as frosty weather may develop Saturday morning. A frost advisory is in effect for interior portions of Northwest Florida and Southwest Alabama. Farther inland a freeze warning has been posted for other parts of the Deep South.