Andrew M Spencer

Privatised UK water saw years of under-investment, frequent sewage spills UK employment data leads event risk in London - unemployment rate poll 4.3% Charts - daily momentum studies crest/fall, 21-day Bollinger bands flat line Mixed 5, 10 & 21-DMAs - a neutral daily bias, weeklies remain bearish Friday's 1.2607 low, then the 1.2475 November trend low initial supports

+0.15% in a 1.0507-1.0535 EBS range with the U.S. dollar off 0.1% German ifo Business Climate and ZEW Economic Sentiment lead EZ data Retail sales lead a busy US data schedule - potential volatility Charts - daily momentum studies flat-line, 21-day Bollinger bands contract

weakness Expecting a tight trading range in Asia ahead of tonight's FOMC Charts - daily momentum studies conflict, 21-day Bollinger bands contract Neutral 5, 10 & 21-DMAs, weekly moving averages fall - no strong bias 1.0668 0.382% of the September/November fall remains pivotal resistance The 1.0595 upper 21-day Bolli, and December 1.0630 top are first resistance

Steady in a tight but fairly busy 1.2705-1.2714 range on FX Matching Expecting a busy session with UK inflation then the Fed's FOMC meeting Core CPI poll 3.6% y/y, and CPI Services poll 5.1% y/y lead UK event risk

Projections and the Fed's tone in the statement, press conference are key Charts - daily momentum studies conflict, 21-day Bollinger bands contract Neutral 5, 10 & 21-DMAs, weekly moving averages fall - no strong bias 1.0668 0.382% of the September/November fall remains pivotal resistance The 1.0595 upper 21-day Bolli, and December 1.0630 top are first resistance

The Fed will be data-led initially in 2025, so potential for volatility With no tier one EZ data, USD and EUR/GBP flow around BoE rate decision lead Charts - daily momentum studies fall, 21-day Bollinger bands expand 5, 10 & 21-DMAs edge lower, weekly moving averages fall - a bearish bias

at 4.75% - GBPIRPR prices no change at 92.15% The Monetary Policy Summary will be key for the market response to the BoE Charts - negative daily momentum studies, 21-day Bollinger bands expand 5, 10 & 21-DMAs fall - a negative daily bias, plus weeklies remain bearish Targets a test of the 1.2475 November trend base, then the 1.2446 May low

Steady in a 1.0359-1.0368 range in Asia with risk appetite under pressure E-mini S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq e-mini -0.65%, 10yr Treasury yields -2bp 4.558% There is no significant EZ data or ECB speakers, so the USD will likely lead

Retail sales lead event risk in London - poll +0.5% m/m, +0.8% y/y Charts - negative daily momentum studies, 21-day Bollinger bands expand 5, 10 & 21-DMAs fall - a negative daily bias, plus weeklies remain bearish Targets a test of the 1.2475 November trend base, then the 1.2446 May low A close below 1.2446 would be bearish for a test of the 1.2299 2024 base

A Russia-Ukraine cease-fire would certainly boost sentiment in Europe Charts - daily momentum studies fall, 21-day Bollinger bands expand 5, 10 & 21-DMAs edge lower, weekly moving averages fall - a bearish bias This week's 1.0535 high, then the December 1.0630 top are initial resistance November 1.0331 2024 low, then 1.0195 0.618% 2022/23 rise are first support