Bill Baruch

Yesterday's Settlement: 68.70, up +0.27 [+0.39%] WTI Crude Oil futures settled marginally higher yesterday after a disappointing U.S. trading session.

The reality of a higher for longer interest rate environment is starting to firmly take hold. This sentiment continues to pressure crude prices.

Crude fell sharply last week as the dollar continued to gain strength and 2025 demand worries gripped markets.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures slipped sharply Friday in a move that was swift from the opening bell onwards. Some would consider such a move necessary in order for the market to erase the post-election enthusiasm, find balance and re-establish itself for a healthy yearend rally. Rising rates are seen as a headwind and something we are watching closely. The U.S 10-year Note and 30-year Bond futures have not taken out the election night low, are hanging heavily at the level with a 4.5% and 4.7% yield, respectively. The economic calendar is light to start the week but traders should keep an ear out for Fed speak.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures snapped back yesterday, but were tagged overnight on an evolving geopolitical environment. Ukraine used Western-supplied missiles to strike a border region of Russia. As promised, Russian President Putin updated a nuclear doctrine expanding conditions for the use of atomic weapons. While significant, Putin's maneuver was well-telegraphed for some time. Upon the news, the S&P slipped 1% from session highs. Indices are stabilizing into U.S. hours with the help of earnings, after Walmart beat top and bottom-line estimates and raised its outlook on strong consumer spending.

WTI Crude Oil Futures (January) Yesterday's Settlement: 69.17, up +2.25 [+3.36%]

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures roared off the lows yesterday in a quick shift from pre-market risk-off, amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, to an intraday risk-on. We find three important factors supporting the 180-degree turn. First, Treasury prices began attempting a bottom in Friday's session, with the 10-year topping at 4.5% and geopolitical fears further suppressing yields. Given the broader market climate, lower yields are seen as favoring risk. Second, E-mini S&P futures pinged our rare major four-star support, a level aligning many technical indicators with the October 30th gap close in which price action blew through post-election. Third, with aid from the first two, the focus shifted more micro; a great earnings report from Walmart, the world's largest retailer, and of course, a pre-earnings ramp from NVDA, the world's largest company by market cap.

WTI Crude Oil futures finished nearly unchanged yesterday after an initial rally tied to conflict escalation in the Russia – Ukraine war.

After battling some wind coming out of the ‘sales’ on NVDA’s earnings, and a wave of risk-off due to increasingly heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, E-mini S&P futures have traded positive at the time of writing.

WTI Crude Oil futures finished lower yesterday after once again making early morning highs in the European session. U.S. traders sold crude aggressively into the U.S. open. European buying into aggressive American selling on the open has been a rinse-and-repeat pattern in crude this week.