Bill Baruch

E-mini NQ futures kept the rally going with a monster session of +1.5% to start the week. Tech dragged the E-mini S&P to a +0.5% start to the week.

WTI Crude Oil futures were lower yesterday after weak Chinese economic and crude oil data was reported on Sunday night. The weak data reinforced Chinese demand concerns heading into 2025.

WTI Crude Oil futures traded sharply lower yesterday, making a low of 68.81 (-1.48, -2.11%) around 9:45am cst. From there, futures rallied +1.14 to settle at 69.95; ending the day lower by -0.64. The sell-off was stoked by weak Chinese economic data and a global risk-off trade that drove equities and metals lower as well.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures slipped yesterday in a very healthy manner. On one hand, the poor breadth in Tech caught up to the tape, on the other hand, this was also profit-taking ahead of today’s Federal Reserve policy decision.

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps yesterday with a hawkish tone, and the Dot Plot signaled only two more cuts in 2025. All of this was right in line with expectations. We noted here yesterday that, “The market is pricing in one additional 25bps cut through the January and March meeting with a 56.3% probability and three cuts through the end of 2025 with a 58.2% probability (one additional cut after March), sticking the Fed Funds rate where we believe it rightfully should be, at 3.75-4.00%.” As one can see, the Fed Fund futures were discounting this shift, and the 10-year yield had risen as much as 30bps in less than two weeks. However, there was one problem, the market responded as if it was completely blindsided; E-mini S&P futures fell 3% and the E-mini NQ 3.6%. What likely encouraged continued cratering yesterday was the comment from Fed Chair Powell that yesterday's cut “was a closer call”, as it exemplifies a clear shift in the thought process of the Fed.

The early morning strength we noted yesterday morning fell apart quickly. Futures were sold aggressively through the U.S. Open and showed little life through the trading session.

The early morning strength we noted yesterday morning fell apart quickly. Futures were sold aggressively through the U.S. Open and showed little life through the trading session.

E-mini S&P (March) / E-mini NQ (March) S&P, last week's close: Settled at 6001.75, up 67.75 on Friday and down 124.00 on the week

Bill Baruch Blue Line Futures WTI Crude Oil Futures (February) ALERT JAN CONTRACT EXPIRY DEC 19th. ROLL TO FEBRUARY ADVISED.

E-mini S&P (March) / E-mini NQ (March) S&P, Tuesday's close: Settled at 6098.00, up 62.00 NQ, Tuesday's close: Settled at 22,028.50, up 275.25