Carl Zulauf

The Census of Agriculture, which is conducted every five years by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, provides a comprehensive picture of U.S. farms and ranches. Using data from the 2017

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Carl Zulauf - Carl Zulauf -

Carl Zulauf and Gary Schnitkey - Carl Zulauf -

Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson, and Carl Zulauf - Gary Schnitkey - A steep decline in prices across years has resulted in low to negative average returns to Midwest farms in 2023 and projected for 2024. Crop insurance programs are not designed to cover the risk of multi-year price declines and current commodity title programs are also expected to provide little relief for these low prices. Modifying commodity title programs to make them more market-responsive would aid in providing relief to farmers.

Carl Zulauf, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, and Nick Paulson - Carl Zulauf - Since the 1996 Farm Bill’s seminal policy change that gave farmers the freedom to decide which crops to plant or not plant, land in US farms has declined by 75 million acres or -8%. Most (88%) of the decline occurred in pastureland. It is thus incorrect to equate the loss of farmland to a loss of cropland. Cropland has declined by only -2% while pastureland has declined by -13%. The sizable decline in pastureland is consistent with the growth in confinement animal production.

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Bradley Zwilling, and Carl Zulauf - Nick Paulson - Illinois crop budgets for 2025 are now available and, overall, projections are for lower production costs for corn and soybeans in 2025 compared with 2024. Break-even prices to cover all costs, including cash rent for farmland, range from $4.60 to $4.66 per bushel for corn and $11.01 to $11.56 per bushel for soybeans. Despite lower cost projections, current expectations for corn and soybean prices suggest negative farmer returns to corn and soybeans across all regions of Illinois in 2025.

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Carl Zulauf - Nick Paulson -

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Carl Zulauf, Jonathan Coppess - Uncategorized - The 2023 Commodity title program will make payments this fall, and payment rates for Price Loss Coverage and Agriculture Risk Coverage at the county level have been released. No PLC payments were triggered for corn, soybeans, or wheat as the 2023 MYA prices for these crops were all above their respective effective reference prices. ARC-CO payments for corn, soybeans, and wheat were triggered in a relatively small number of counties nationally.

Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson, Carl Zulauf, and Jim Baltz - Gary Schnitkey -

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Carl Zulauf - Nick Paulson - Lower returns to rented land and higher interest rates began to signal the potential for downward pressure on farmland values in 2023. Those signals continue, with current fundamentals suggesting land value reductions of around 3% in 2025. A 3% decline would be in line with observed adjustments since the 1980s as well as expectations from professional farm managers surveyed in 2024. On the other hand, valid arguments exist for continued strength in farmland values.