Cecile Lefort

Bond markets are signalling a strong chance that the Reserve Bank will next month finally deliver the first Australian rate cut in more than four years, shrugging off a surprisingly buoyant jobs market and economist forecasts.

Tim Toohey from Yarra Capital says fewer board meetings will mean less policy agility to react to monetary turning points.

Alarm bells are ringing for fund managers and economists about the mounting threat of asset bubbles, which may trigger chaos in financial markets.

Fund managers are downplaying Donald Trump's tariff threats, saying the risk of stoking inflation will stop the president from rushing out destructive trade policies that could threaten global growth.

Australian shares are poised for a cautious start as investors worry about China's AI progress, the Federal Reserve meeting and key local inflation data.

Three of the four major bank forecasters agree the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates in February after inflation slowed by more than expected, stoking hopes that the RBA will finally join the global monetary easing pulse.

Bond yields rose after the US Federal Reserve indicated it was in no rush to reduce interest rates, validating investor expectations for fewer rate cuts this year as the market adjusts to the second Trump administration.

HSBC’s chief economist says the RBA will only cut twice in 2025, beginning this month, and once in 2026.

The Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate, according to Paul Bloxham, but don’t count on a big drop in borrowing costs as this cycle will be a short one.

Analysts at Barrenjoey, Deloitte, KPMG, Judo Bank and Oxford Economics are tipping that the Reserve Bank will keep rates on hold on February 18.