Chris Turner

The calendar is packed for this last full trading week of the year. Central bank rate meetings in the US and Japan take centre stage, but we’ll also see rate meetings in the UK, Sweden, Norway, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. Starting the week will be the December flash PMIs in Europe – the main question being whether or not they have deteriorated further

USD has continued to buck seasonal depreciating trends thanks to a still-high short-term swap rate. We expect a wait and see approach today ahead of the last key central bank events of the year over the next couple of days. Outside of the US, strategic CAD shorts are likely being added due to political turmoil, while strong UK wage data is keeping GBP bid

We expect the Federal Reserve to deliver a consensus 25bp cut today, but also to scale back on guidance for rate cuts next year. We think this will allow the dollar to stay firm into year-end as wide differentials remain highly favourable for the greenback. UK inflation rose as expected in November, which only changes the BoE’s picture slightly

A 19-year-old is pleading guilty to causing a couple's death in a two-car crash in Des Moines while going more than 70 miles over the speed limit.

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We got another 25bp policy rate cut from the Fed, but updated projections and Chair Powell’s press conference confirms that the Fed is going to be much more cautious next year with sticky inflation and President Trump’s policy mix meaning a higher hurdle is required to justify rate cuts in 2025

The Fed delivered a hawkish cut yesterday, signalling only 50bp of easing in 2025 and shifting to a more patient tone on easing. That has led to another dollar rally, which we see extending into the new year. A hesitant BoJ has added fuel to the USD/JPY bull run. Today, the macro year will be wrapped up with rate decisions in the UK, Sweden, Norway and Czechia

The Bank of Japan held its key interest rate at 0.25% for the third time, in line with a narrow majority of market polls. The decision to keep rates unchanged and dovish comments from Governor Ueda are expected to weaken the JPY further, which will likely lead to a faster rate hike than Ueda’s cautious messages have suggested

The BoJ has kept rates on hold, remaining surprisingly dovish - but a rate hike is likely to come in January

A 19-year-old and 18-year-old were both taken into custody on Thursday