Chris Turner

Last week's budget has made life more complicated for the Bank of England. A rate cut is all but certain, but the combination of extra

Within 24 hours we may or may not know the identity of the 47th president of the United States. FX options markets have priced in a respectful level of exceptionally high volatility over the coming week. Results should start to come in around 03/0400 CET tomorrow morning. Only a Red Sweep outcome can probably add to the dollar’s upside.

Trump trades have boosted the dollar across the board as consensus rapidly grows around a Trump win. Markets are pricing in – even if potentially not in full – that the Republicans will also control Congress, but the House race remains very close. The call on the House will likely determine how far the dollar rally can go today

Donald Trump’s victory will ensure a lower tax environment that should boost sentiment and spending in the near term. However, promised tariffs, immigration controls and higher borrowing costs will increasingly become headwinds through his presidential term

ING’s Head of Markets, Chris Turner, on what to expect from the markets after Donald Trump’s emphatic win in the US presidential election

Image Source: Pixabay The dollar's up, U.S. rates are up, equities are up - Donald Trump's emphatic win in America's presidential election has sent markets in a fresh direction.

We are revising our EUR/USD forecast lower following the Republican clean sweep. We assume that Trump will go ahead with both tax cuts and protectionism, with the latter triggering a dovish ECB reaction. That translates into a 1.00-1.05 EUR/USD range over the next quarters, with peak downside risks around the start of 2026

A Trump win is clearly bullish for the dollar – but the challenge will be in timing it

The US Fed has cut its policy rate by 25bp. They acknowledge that policy remains restrictive and that further cuts are likely but that the pace of those cuts may slow. They were reluctant to discuss the ‘Trump effect’, but here’s the risk: slightly firmer growth with more inflationary pressures. And that might lead to a less aggressive rate-cut narrative

If anyone was expecting the US election result and UK budget to significantly impact the Fed and BoE policy message, they were let down by two consensus 25bp cuts and rather balanced guidance. In FX, we have seen an unwinding of post-election USD longs, but that looks more like a positioning adjustment rather than a rethink of the Trump trade