Daniel Moss

A much bigger inflation shock than imagined is coming for Southeast Asia — if a country that had shown promise is anything to go by. The Philippines, more often the focus of maritime rivalry between the US and China than developing economic trends, is in the grip of a sudden and brutal price surge brought on by the Iran war.

Indonesia is patting itself on the back for a respectable economic start to the year. But President Prabowo Subianto’s team would be wise not to overdo it. Markets aren’t expressing anywhere near the same comfort with the country’s trajectory.

For all China’s pointed criticism of the Iran war, it hasn’t been without advantage for the world’s second-largest economy. President Xi Jinping has been wrestling for years with a pernicious foe: deflation. The conflict has given prices at home a much-needed lift, one that Beijing must wish isn’t transitory. It’s a welcome development in an otherwise dour outlook.

Central banks in Southeast Asia are done talking and are starting to bow to the inevitable after hedging for months about riding out the market tumult from the Iran war. The jumbo interest-rate hike in Indonesia won't be the last hard step to prop up sagging regional currencies.

FOR all China's pointed criticism of the Iran war, it hasn't been without advantage for the world's second-largest economy.

It’s boom time in South Korea. There’s very little these days that isn’t eye-catching, from exports to stock-market gyrations, housing — and inflation. Rather than fixate on the economy’s imperfections, the country should enjoy the run while it lasts.

Indonesia has declared what amounts to an emergency over its embattled currency. The shock interest-rate increase this week has given the rupiah a short-term lift. Without a change in the underlying direction of government policy, it will be insufficient to revive confidence.

Malaysia is enjoying a comeback that’s enhanced by the hard times visited upon neighbors. The economy, which once epitomized Southeast Asia’s breakneck growth and towering ambitions, is skipping the flashy patter. Prosperity now comes in the form of something more modest — and in short supply today. The contemporary pitch is all about steadfastness.

Kevin Warsh’s early days at the helm of the Federal Reserve are a tough reminder that when it comes to currencies, the US central bank isn’t always going to act with the best interests of international markets.

New Federal Reserve chief Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance on inflation has surprised markets, signaling a stronger dollar. This poses a challenge for Asian economies reliant on exports, forcing nations like Japan, Indonesia, and India to intervene in currency markets and raise borrowing costs. While the dollar's strength is a global concern, emerging markets like Turkey also face currency pressures. Investors are watching closely as the Fed's policy shifts reverberate worldwide.