David Chapman

This past week saw the release of the U.S. inflation numbers. They were subdued but remain well above Fed targets.

U.S. July CPI fell to 3.4% and PPI to 4.7%, yet remain above the Fed's 2% target. Meanwhile, a renewed oil-price spike could reignite inflation, the yen remains weak despite unusual intervention, and Japan's exceptionally high debt-to-GDP, rising bond yields, and potential Treasury sales could create wider pressure on global markets, which remain bullish but increasingly selective for now.

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Soldier forever grateful to the Bendigo Business of the Year.

Global markets face growing risks from rising bond yields and excessive debt. U.S. debt has reached $40 trillion, while Japan and China also carry enormous obligations. Global debt has more than doubled since 2008 to roughly $353 trillion. Higher rates increase borrowing costs, crowd out government spending, and threaten financial stability, especially as Japan's yields surge.

This week's major event is the Jackson Hole Symposium, August 27–29, held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where central bankers, economists and others gather to discuss global and monetary affairs.

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U.S. inflation remains persistent while slowing GDP raises concerns about stagflation and a potential September rate hike. Markets reacted with weaker stocks, higher yields and a stronger dollar, while gold declined. Canada's economy surprised positively, though tariffs threaten autos. Rising global debt heightens crisis risks, reinforcing gold's role as a hedge despite its temporary pullback.

Inflation remains a problem following the release of the July PCE numbers. Is the U.S. economy slowing following the release of Q2 GDP numbers which fell from the previous reading?