Ilya Spivak

US growth was revised higher and the war premium has drained out of oil — yet stocks can't rally. A closer look at the GDP data shows why: the economy may be eating itself.

The war premium has drained from crude oil, interest rates are lower, and chipmakers are pledging hundreds of billions — yet stocks stay stuck.

Stocks look stuck but gold, oil, and the bond market hint the US-Iran war trade is running out of road. A wave of economic data will decide what comes next.

Falling oil and steadier bonds hint the rate scare is fading, which ought to cheer stocks — yet they won't budge.

A weak jobs report may finally pull the market's gaze off Middle East headlines and onto the economy, where a squeezed consumer is looking like the real threat.

Is the stock market in trouble if the Fed is wrong about inflation? The Iran war trade is fading across gold, bonds, and the dollar. A hawkish turn at the US central bank may turn out to be dangerously out of date.

Oil prices jumped and June Fed meeting minutes came out hawkish, yet bonds, gold, and the dollar refused to play along. That looks scary for stock markets.

Oil prices jumped as the US and Iran clashed again this week, yet the familiar “war trade” inflation fears were absent. For stock markets, that's probably bad news.

Oil prices surged and stocks fell as a clash between the US and Iran revived the war trade, but incoming CPI inflation data may point to a deeper problem.

Stock markets might have cheered as inflation expectedly fell, but fighting words from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned of trouble ahead.