Edward Harrison

This has been quite the stock market. Think about its resilience over the past 15 years. From worries about hyperinflation amid quantitative easing, to the Powell Pivot of 2019, through the panic of pandemic shutdowns to the Fed's rate-hike campaign — despite test after test, the market has emerged intact.

Treasury bonds are a curious thing. When the economic sun is shining and all looks well, Treasuries decline in value as if they're the last thing you want to own. But when things look their worst, Treasury bonds rally up in price as their yields tumble. And everybody clamors for them. It's this fact — that they move in the opposite direction as the economy — that makes them a great portfolio diversifier. But it also makes bond investors a little perverse: On the level of pure self-interest, at least, it leaves them effectively rooting for something bad to happen.

Let’s admit it. We underestimated the US economy’s resilience. I mean, the big question on everyone’s minds as we entered Wednesday was whether the Federal Reserve would cut rates by a quarter or a half point to ward off a recession that’s been predicted for the better part of two years. (They went for the bigger cut). And yet, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow economic tracker shows GDP growing at almost 3% based on data so far this quarter. That’s on the back of the latest retail sales and industrial p

Let's admit it. We underestimated the US economy's resilience. I mean, the big question on everyone's minds as we entered Wednesday was whether the Federal Reserve would cut rates by a quarter or a half point to ward off a recession that's been predicted for the better part of two years. (They went for the bigger cut). And yet, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow economic tracker shows GDP growing at almost 3% based on data so far this quarter. That's on the back of the latest retail sales and industrial production figures, which exceeded expectations. That's very bullish for stocks.

We’ve had a week to consider the consequences of what I think will go down as an historically aggressive move by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by half a percentage point. Equity investors see the move as an unalloyed positive, with stocks having risen to new all-time highs. Bonds, meanwhile, have sold off slightly, understanding that the chances of a soft landing have increased, which should mean higher yields and lower bond prices.

If you look away from the US for a moment, you realize there’s a monster rally happening in China, fueled by a powerful package of economic stimulus. While it’s not clear if the policy measures behind the rally are enough to build a sustainable return to prodigious growth in China, they add another level of support to US-focused investors. After all, US markets and the economy are already reaping the benefits of other stimulus in the form of massive peacetime government spending and front-loaded

Let’s start up where we left off last week, now that we’ve got some corporate earnings and the first inflation read in this more upbeat, new normal investing climate.

No-landing US economy? Well actually, if you look at the latest polls, the majority of Americans feel worse off than they did four years ago at the height of the pandemic. And while partisanship and the lingering effects of inflation certainly have a lot to do with it, the reality is that there’s a stark divide in the US economy between haves and have-nots.

As the US presidential election remains a toss-up right down to the wire, a lot of people are talking about moves in US asset prices as a “Trump Trade.” Yet I’m not so sure that’s what we’re seeing. True, higher interest rates and a rise in gold, Bitcoin and equities is consistent with what traders should bet on if they’re expecting the now crypto- and tariff-loving Republican to return to the White House and cut taxes, adding stimulus to an economy the Federal Reserve is still trying to cool do

Remember when Donald Trump won the White House in 2016 in part on the promise of “Drill, baby, drill?” Well, it turns out that wasn’t a boon for oil companies. The energy sector, in fact, was the worst-performing one during the first Trump Administration. Technology shares rose the most. Forecasting how things will play out in the equity market is no more clear with the prospect of Trump 2.0. That’s not stopping traders from bidding up would-be winners, like immigrant-detention-center operator G