Edward Harrison

Let’s start up where we left off last week, now that we’ve got some corporate earnings and the first inflation read in this more upbeat, new normal investing climate.

No-landing US economy? Well actually, if you look at the latest polls, the majority of Americans feel worse off than they did four years ago at the height of the pandemic. And while partisanship and the lingering effects of inflation certainly have a lot to do with it, the reality is that there’s a stark divide in the US economy between haves and have-nots.

As the US presidential election remains a toss-up right down to the wire, a lot of people are talking about moves in US asset prices as a “Trump Trade.” Yet I’m not so sure that’s what we’re seeing. True, higher interest rates and a rise in gold, Bitcoin and equities is consistent with what traders should bet on if they’re expecting the now crypto- and tariff-loving Republican to return to the White House and cut taxes, adding stimulus to an economy the Federal Reserve is still trying to cool do

Remember when Donald Trump won the White House in 2016 in part on the promise of “Drill, baby, drill?” Well, it turns out that wasn’t a boon for oil companies. The energy sector, in fact, was the worst-performing one during the first Trump Administration. Technology shares rose the most. Forecasting how things will play out in the equity market is no more clear with the prospect of Trump 2.0. That’s not stopping traders from bidding up would-be winners, like immigrant-detention-center operator G

"While now is the time to begin dialing back the restrictiveness of monetary policy, it remains to be seen how much further interest rates will decline or where they might eventually settle."

The most defining element of Donald Trump the politician is unpredictability. The President-elect clearly looks at his ability to zig when everyone else would zag as his ace in the hole, a superpower that allows him combat adversaries and competitors.

The attempt at imposing martial law in South Korea this week looks like another clear sign we’re in a political climate that’s sweeping aside some of the usual norms. What’s happened there is just one of many unexpected twists in geopolitics this year. One after the other, as voters went to the polls around the world, governments were swept out of power or saw support siphoned off by insurgent parties tapping into discontent with the status quo. As the Financial Times headline put it after Donal

After the consumer price inflation data came out, KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk said the Federal Reserve is now playing whack-a-mole with inflation. She’s right to worry. The headline number might have been a relief, coming in exactly as expected at 2.8% from the year earlier. But it’s still well above the Fed’s 2% target. It looks even worse if you exclude food and energy prices to focus on the underlying trend. That measure is 3.3% through November. After Trump takes office next month, tari

With every passing day, there seems to be more and more evidence of irrational exuberance in US asset markets — and yet, the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates.

A theme has taken hold in markets lately, with stocks taking their cue from bonds. Usually, it’s the outlook for the economy and, therefore, earnings that drive stock prices. Yet, as we begin another quarterly earnings season, it’s the bond market dominating the conversation, even when talking about stocks.