Fawad Razaqzada

Crude oil prices rose more than 3% by mid-day in London, causing stocks and bonds to drop.

S&P 500 futures face pressure as rebounding yields and surging oil prices negate Treasury intervention.

The Nasdaq 100 futures fell around 1.7% the other day. The overcrowed AI trade is losing momentum as yields press higher. The key question is whether this is just a temporary respite before new highs are seen, or whether this marks the beginning of something more meaningful this time, writes Fawaz Razaqzada, technical analyst at TradingCandles.

This week's main theme has been a drive away from the dollar and into currencies of economies with better fiscal discipline and lower debt levels.

The Nasdaq 100 futures fell around 1.7% the other day. The overcrowed AI trade is losing momentum as yields press higher. The key question is whether this is just a temporary respite before new highs are seen, or whether this marks the beginning of something more meaningful this time, writes

Last week's main theme has been a shift away from the US dollar towards currencies of economies with stronger fiscal positions and lower debt levels. The brief rally in long-dated US Treasuries helped fuel gains in gold and silver, while the Swiss franc also benefited from increased haven demand. The euro has performed reasonably well too, with the Eurozone economy continuing to expand modestly despite geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy prices. For now, the EUR/USD outlook remains mildly bullish. Investors are looking forward to some US inflation data and the Jackson Hole symposium in the week ahead.

The US dollar has bounced back a tiny bit following last week's sharp decline when currencies of countries with better fiscal discipline outperformed the greenback. The so-called 'debasement' trade will be put to test this week with fresh policy updates from the US government. Markets will be eyeing some sort of fiscal consolidation plan following last week's stress in the Treasury market. Kevin Warsh's speech on Friday could also prove decisive for the dollar forecast. Ultimately, unless yields start to head lower, the pressure will likely remain on the US dollar, with currencies of countries with better fiscal discipline, like the Norwegian Krone and Swiss franc, likely to remain supported. This makes the USD/NOK our favourite currency to take advantage of the slump in the dollar.

Gold has started the week on the front foot, climbing to a high so far of $4680 per ounce. This comes after the precious metal extended its winning streak to three consecutive weeks with another strong advance Friday. The metal continues to benefit from a softer US dollar and the retreat in expectations for further Fed rate increases. With several potentially market-moving events on the calendar, this could be an important week not just for gold but for financial markets more broadly. For now, the near-term gold outlook remains positive, following its recent advance.

For now, consolidation is the name of the game but the risks to the near term EUR/USD forecast remains tilted to the upside.

The AUD/USD continues to grind higher - as it has done so ever since risk assets bottomed back in April 2025.