Francesco Pesole is an FX Strategist who writes for TalkMarkets, ING, and Investing.com. With a focus on foreign exchange markets, Francesco provides daily analysis and insights on currency movements, central bank policies, and economic data. His articles help investors navigate the complexities of the global financial markets.
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Francesco Pesole's articles predominantly cover finance and economy, with a focus on foreign exchange (FX), central banks, monetary policy, economic data, and currency markets. His coverage heavily relies on data citation and includes investment analysis.
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By: Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky, Chris Turner
The dollar dropped after slightly higher than expected US jobless claims yesterday
FX markets are waiting on the big next chapter of the 2024 Fed easing story. Details should emerge this week when April US PPI and CPI data are released. A hot topic will also be US-China relations should the White House tomorrow raise tariffs on China’s green export industries. On a quiet Monday, we will also be looking at a close call on a rate cut in Romania
It looks like the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will very shortly be following the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank in cutting interest rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounds like he would love to cut rates too – if only US data would allow. We have a slight bias for a lower dollar ahead of a first Fed rate cut in September
The latest FX forecasts from our team
Markets appear to be giving an asymmetrically larger weight to the encouraging bits of US data releases (like yesterday’s PPI), perhaps mirroring communication by the Fed which has failed to turn much more hawkish as disinflation has stalled. Today’s CPI will be pivotal: we expect a 0.4% MoM core print, in line with consensus
Are there still parallels between the US and Australian economies? We take a look
ING’s Francesco Pesole on ECB rate cuts, Fed divergence and what it all means for the euro.
We suspect that the Fed pricing after the US CPI is already embedding some optimism on core PCE (released 31 May) and jobs figures in early June. With no key data before that PCE print, FX volatility may drop again, and the dollar may stabilise or recover some ground in the next couple of weeks. A move to 1.10 in EUR/USD looks premature
In the two weeks leading to the 31 May US core PCE release, markets may experience reduced volatility. This is not necessarily bad news for the high-yielding USD, but the yen looks more fragile. A stabilisation in EUR/USD around 1.08/1.09 or some modest downside pressure is our expectation for the near term
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has little room to shift to a less hawkish stance as non-tradeable inflation remained too hot in the first quarter, despite a domestic recession and loosening jobs market. We think rate projections will still signal no rate cuts in 2024, but we don’t rule out some easing in the fourth quarter
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