George Hay

BHP has done it again. Eighteen months after quitting a set-piece M&A battle for Anglo American with its tail between its legs, the $132 billion miner was on Sunday evening obliged to repeat the move in double-quick time. If CEO Mike Henry leaves his role next year, as per media reports, this represents a decidedly dud swan song.

The $72 bln miner is mulling an IPO of its North American assets. A full split of the yellow metal-focused company would have been a bolder way to unlock value. But it would have also been more complex, and a listing still sets a floor for what any acquirer of the unit might pay.

The kingdom’s Public Investment Fund is footing the vast majority of a $36 bln equity cheque to take the US video game developer private. With over double that in liquid assets, it has the dough. But the risks and opportunity cost of such a big wager are eye-wateringly high.

The $89 bln oil major has lured Meg O'Neill away from the same role at Australia's Woodside. She's a fossil fuel advocate with M&A experience, which suits BP's new direction. But her record isn’t stellar, and low oil prices next year will complicate the company’s turnaround.

The continent has finite resources and a 2,700 km front with its belligerent neighbour. Cheap sensors and unmanned aircraft can play a key defensive role. A smarter approach requires decoys, hard decisions over what to protect, and deterrence to stop an attack in the first place.

Doha’s GDP could sink ​13% in 2026, amid attacks that have taken out ‌17% of LNG capacity. Its local banks have faced big deposit outflows before. If Qatar has to cover lost revenue and liquidity, its $580 ​bln wealth fund can sell assets and its ​central bank can sell gold.

Gulf conflict has pushed European and Asian liquefied natural gas ​prices higher, but not American ones. Those with lots of ‌US supply, like Shell and TotalEnergies, can make tidy trading margins. And $41 bln Venture Global, with a boatload of un-contracted LNG, has struck gold.

Abu Dhabi deputy ruler Sheikh Tahnoon’s vehicle is ​buying UK venues like the Ivy and Annabel’s. Despite Iranian ‌drone strikes, Gulf money still covets the capital’s glitz. Even so, a $1.9 bln price tag is cheaper than Soho House’s 2025 deal, and there’s scope for ​US expansion.

Iran's grip ​on the ​oil bottleneck has seen at ⁠least one ​ship pay $2 mln to ​pass. Even if it charged a lower rate ​of $1 per barrel ​on half of prewar traffic, ‌the ⁠fee over 25 years in today's money is $54 bln. ​That’s ​close ⁠to the possible cost of ​new pipelines to ​bypass ⁠the strait.

Oil ​riches allowed Saudi Arabia ⁠and its ​neighbours to pump $150 bln ​a year into overseas assets. Blocked exports ​and new ​costs have interrupted these flows. ‌Even ⁠if the region's flagship wealth funds remain active, ​Western ​investors ⁠and dealmakers will find fewer ​eager buyers.