Henry Olsen

The dramatic rise in early voting has led many to think the election might be effectively over days or weeks before Election Day. The data thus far show that won’t be true — and the numbers aren’t …

The dramatic rise in early voting has led many to think the election might be effectively over days or weeks before Election Day. The data thus far show that won’t be true — and the numbers aren’t comforting for Democrats. Early voting is nowhere near what some people estimated: 4.2 million Americans have already cast their ballots, per John Couvillon, a Republican political strategist who provides daily updates on early and mail voting. That sounds like a lot, but it’s a pittance compared with the 158.6 million votes ultimately cast in 2020. More important, it’s significantly less than this point in 2020: Early voting is down 45%, Couvillon’s numbers show.

Poll-watchers always wonder what might be the “October Surprise” of any presidential election cycle. The pair of massive hurricanes that smashed into the southeast United States over the past week certainly qualify as surprises — and could shape the outcome of the tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

His campaign’s snapshot of swing-state polling points to warning signs beneath the surface.

0 seconds of 53 seconds Volume 0% Pundits and analysts are looking at head-to-head polling numbers to read the presidential race's tea leaves.

The most important resource a candidate has is his or her time. Where they go, who they’re with, and what they say defines their sense of the race more than any spin their consultants offer. There’…

Published October 21, 2024 The Trump campaign released a polling memo on October 13 contending that he was ahead by two points in the seven swing states.

Published October 24, 2024 The most important resource a candidate has is his or her time.

Legendary Ohio State football coach Woody Hayes used to say there are three things that can happen with a forward pass, and only one of them is good.

Readers of my Post piece predicting Donald Trump will win and Republicans will have a good night in congressional contests may wonder how I derived the numbers underlying those calls.