Hongxia Jiao

Brenna Ellison, Maria Kalaitzandonakes, and Jonathan Coppess - Maria Kalaitzandonakes - Results from the most recent wave of the Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey show that the average U.S. consumer is still feeling the effects of inflation. While the rate of inflation is slowing down, this does not mean prices experienced by households will be lower or that their perceptions of inflation are improving. Our results indicate that over the last two years, consumers remain quite pessimistic about inflation.

Carl Zulauf, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, and Nick Paulson - Carl Zulauf - Since the 1996 Farm Bill’s seminal policy change that gave farmers the freedom to decide which crops to plant or not plant, land in US farms has declined by 75 million acres or -8%. Most (88%) of the decline occurred in pastureland. It is thus incorrect to equate the loss of farmland to a loss of cropland. Cropland has declined by only -2% while pastureland has declined by -13%. The sizable decline in pastureland is consistent with the growth in confinement animal production.

Jonathan Coppess, Maria Kalaitzandonakes, and Brenna Ellison - Jonathan Coppess - In this farmdoc daily post, we review two years of survey results to add further perspectives on the politics of inflation. We find that while, indeed, Democrats are more optimistic about inflation – non-metro Democrats are significantly less optimistic than their metro counterparts. Similarly, non-metro Republicans were much more pessimistic about inflation than their metro-counterparts. For policy makers and candidates, these perspectives may feed deliberation.

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Bradley Zwilling, and Carl Zulauf - Nick Paulson - Illinois crop budgets for 2025 are now available and, overall, projections are for lower production costs for corn and soybeans in 2025 compared with 2024. Break-even prices to cover all costs, including cash rent for farmland, range from $4.60 to $4.66 per bushel for corn and $11.01 to $11.56 per bushel for soybeans. Despite lower cost projections, current expectations for corn and soybean prices suggest negative farmer returns to corn and soybeans across all regions of Illinois in 2025.

Jonathan Coppess, Maria Kalaitzandonakes, and Brenna Ellison - Jonathan Coppess -

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Carl Zulauf - Nick Paulson -

Jonathan Coppess, Anthony Studer, Rabin Bhattarai, Dennis Bowman, Lowell Gentry, Corey Mitchell, Christopher Navarro, Sandeep Puthanveetil Satheesan, Rashmil Panchani, and Joseph Quansah - Jonathan Coppess -

Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson, Carl Zulauf, and Jim Baltz - Gary Schnitkey -

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Carl Zulauf - Nick Paulson - Lower returns to rented land and higher interest rates began to signal the potential for downward pressure on farmland values in 2023. Those signals continue, with current fundamentals suggesting land value reductions of around 3% in 2025. A 3% decline would be in line with observed adjustments since the 1980s as well as expectations from professional farm managers surveyed in 2024. On the other hand, valid arguments exist for continued strength in farmland values.

Andrew Swanson, Shawn Arita, Joseph Cooper, and Seth Meyer - Andrew Swanson - This farmdoc daily article focuses on the potential spillover effects from increasing used cooking oil biofuel demand on crop oil prices. We lay out the close price relationships between UCO and crop oil markets with a special emphasis on how these price relationships can differ by country and region, and then we conclude by highlighting the importance of better understanding these price dynamics to fully understand the greenhouse gas emission implications of biofuel policies.