Jennifer Kary

It has been in the works for some time now. China is finally all set to add industrial metal sectors like steel and aluminum as well as cement to its national carbon trading market. According to media reports, the change will happen by the end of 2024.

The Renewables MMI ( Monthly Metals Index ) finally witnessed a significant increase in price action for the first time in a year. In total, the index ascended by 9.97%, drawing fresh attention to renewable resources. The main culprit for the increase in price action was a significant rise in neodymium prices, likely in response to China’s rare earths export restrictions, which go into effect on October 1st.

The Global Precious Metals MMI ( Monthly Metals Index ) showed some bullish momentum month-over-month, rising by 3.74%. Except for platinum, all precious metals prices saw increases. This uptick in movement was mainly thanks to the anticipation of interest rate cuts. The USDX (U.S. Dollar Index) also weakened slightly month-over-month, which offered prices more bullish pressure. With the U.S. presidential election close at hand, precious metals prices could witness even more volatility, as these vital hedging commodities often do when the country’s future is up in the air.

If you’ve been in the metal procurement game long enough, you’ve likely encountered unanticipated market shocks. These rare occurrences, known as “Black Swan events,” hit hard, leaving devastating consequences in their wake. From global pandemics to geopolitical conflicts, Black Swan events can cripple industrial metal markets, forcing companies to scramble to source critical materials and protect their bottom line. MetalMiner’s weekly newsletter offers many tips and tricks to help you navigate Black Swan events.

With a potential strike on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts set to begin today, metal buyers should brace for potentially significant disruptions that could impact metals prices. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) recently signaled that dockworkers could walk off the job in the absence of a new labor agreement, halting operations at 36 critical ports. This would have immediate and profound effects on the supply chains of industrial metals like steel, aluminum, and copper, driving price volatility and slowing procurement.

The Rare Earths MMI ( Monthly Metals Index ) witnessed another sharp rise in price action month-over-month, this time increasing by 8.33%. The main culprit behind the bullish momentum was China’s rare earths export restriction, which officially went into effect on October 1. The rare earths market could continue to experience volatility with the new restrictions in place. However, the market will continue to battle oversupply in the long run due to Chinese overproduction.

The Automotive MMI ( Monthly Metals Index ) reduced its downward price action, moving sideways month-over-month by 0.43%. While the automotive industry dodged a bullet with the east coast port strike only lasting 3-4 days, the industry could still face more pressure due to lower steel output. Thanks to ongoing mill maintenance that began in August, hot-dipped galvanized steel prices could witness short-term price increases, which will introduce bullish momentum into the automotive industry.

The Construction MMI ( Monthly Metals Index ) moved sideways, nudging up just 2.54%. Overall, the index continues to move in its more than year-long sideways range, with metal prices remaining stagnant. While the index had a slight response to the September interest rate drop, it will take a lot more than that to generate any type of noticeable momentum up or down. However, it is worth noting that aluminum sheet prices in Europe and steel prices in the U.S. are showing more movement than in the past several months, which could impact the overall U.S. construction industry.

The Renewables MMI ( Monthly Metals Index ) slowed down its upward price action and moved sideways, edging down by 0.12%.

The Rare Earths MMI (Monthly Metals Index) saw its upward price action slow as prices experienced only a slight uptick of 0.38%. While upward price action for rare earths did lose steam month-over-month, prices could soon witness another bullish boost. Not only did China’s rare earth export ban go into effect as of October 1, but Australia, a large manufacturer of rare earths, is now experiencing supply chain disruptions.