John Matisz

It can be easy to forget that Nathan MacKinnon, a consensus top-three hockey player on the planet, was once a young NHLer searching for answers.MacKinnon, the first pick in the 2013 NHL draft, burst onto the scene as an 18-year-old, recording 63 points in 82 games. But the Calder Trophy winner's production dipped to an average of 54 points per 82 games over the next three seasons.Now 29 and entering his 12th year, MacKinnon has enough space between then and now to grasp what happened. In short, the Colorado Avalanche superstar fell off from ages 19-21 because he thought he had it all figured out. He failed to progress as a player and the league caught up to him."When you have a good rookie year, there might be less fear going into your second year. Fear can drive you," MacKinnon said in September at the NHL/NHLPA player media tour in Las Vegas. "You don't know what to expect. You're worried you won't even be good in the NHL, and then once you think you're a little good, it can go downhill. It definitely happened to me."!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;rMacKinnon's wavy career arc is a reminder that player development is rarely linear, even among the super talented. "Sophomore slump" is part of the pro sports vernacular for this exact reason. It's incredibly difficult for second-year players of all kinds to meet heightened internal and external expectations.Chicago Blackhawks sniper Connor Bedard and Minnesota Wild workhorse Brock Faber finished first and second in 2023-24 Calder voting. What can we realistically expect from each player in their second acts? What potential challenges might the sophomores face? Let's dig in, with help from pro hockey analyst Jack Han.Connor BedardEverybody wanted a piece of Bedard ahead of and during his rookie season. He was the shiny new toy - a fresh face of the league with enormous upside."Macklin will be dealing with all of that instead," Bedard said recently with a laugh, referring to media and fan interest inevitably shifting toward Sharks super prospect and Vancouver-area buddy Macklin Celebrini. Bill Smith / Getty ImagesBedard's on-ice impact last season mirrored the hype - 22 goals, 39 assists, and a 0.90 points-per-game rate that ranks third this century among 18-year-old NHLers, behind only Sidney Crosby's 1.26 and Connor McDavid's 1.07. The shoot-first center led or co-led 31st-place Chicago in goals, assists, and points, despite missing 14 games with a broken jaw and skating alongside serviceable yet unremarkable veterans. (Bedard's three most common linemates were Philipp Kurashev, Nick Foligno, and Ryan Donato.)The 2023-24 Hawks were so deprived of firepower that Bedard was the central focus for opposing teams from his debut onward. "You didn't need to game-plan against anybody else," is how Han - a former AHL assistant coach who writes the popular Hockey Tactics newsletter - put it.Chicago brass was well aware of this and got to work in the offseason. Puck hound Tyler Bertuzzi, playmaker Teuvo Teravainen, and speedster Ilya Mikheyev were all added to the forward group. Meanwhile, former MVP Taylor Hall has recovered from the ACL tear that shelved him for most of last season.Better support will reroute some pressure away from Bedard, making the explosive trigger man more dangerous. The righty scored on 10.7% of his shots last year, which is very good for an average NHL forward but a tad low for someone with Bedard's elite, deceptive wrist and snap shots."If you have a good shot and you're a player who can consistently get to dangerous areas of the ice, there's nothing wrong with shooting 10%," Han said. "The difference between a 10% shooter and a 13% or 15% shooter is often not so much you and your talent as it is your teammates and their talent. Why is it that Auston Matthews or Steven Stamkos can shoot 15%? It's because they've got Mitch Marner and Marty St. Louis setting them up." Icon Sportswire / Getty ImagesDefensive play and faceoffs were Bedard's main weaknesses as a rookie. (He won a ghastly 38.9% of his 532 faceoffs.) Also part of the learning curve - realizing how smart NHLers are relative to junior players. "Everyone's always in the right position. That was something I wasn't used to at the start," said Bedard, who played two full seasons in the WHL. "I was making plays, predicting a guy would move, and I'd just give (the puck) right to them."Bedard, who focused on improving his speed and power in offseason workouts, was understandably tight-lipped about his personal performance goals heading into Year 2. But in early September, the 19-year-old mentioned emphasizing overall consistency and finding a way to impact each game on a deeper level.Assuming good health, simply being on a team with a respectable supporting cast should boost Bedard's numbers. Han believes an 80-point pace (30-35 goals and 45-50 assists over 82 games) is a "reasonable" bet. While nobody's immune to the sophomore slump, No. 98 on Chicago is an unlikely victim."I've been very motivated since I was 4 or 5 years old," Bedard said. "I'm not overly concerned about that. Maybe I have a slump, maybe I play really well. You don't know the future."!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;rBrock FaberFaber was the only other player to receive a first-place vote for last year's Calder, with an excellent first full season in Minnesota convincing 42 of 194 voters to slot him ahead of Bedard.His supporters were enamored by an abnormally hefty workload and relatively polished game. Faber, who was usually pitted against other teams' best forwards, logged 2,047 total minutes, the most by a rookie since the NHL began tracking individual time-on-ice numbers in 1997. Minnesota, a team that missed the Western Conference playoff cutline by 11 points, fared much better at five-on-five with Faber on the ice (plus-one) versus off (minus-17)."I learned a lot. It's stuff you can't really learn in the offseason," Faber said of the rookie grind. "You can't learn how to take a two-on-one against McDavid and (Leon) Draisaitl. When you're thrown into the fire, that's how you learn. When you make mistakes, that's how you learn. I made plenty of mistakes, and I learned a lot from those mistakes, offensively and defensively." Ronald Martinez / Getty ImagesHan likes the player - "Faber's ahead of the curve for a young defenseman" - and believes there's a strong chance the eight-year, $64-million contract extension Faber signed this offseason will age gracefully as the salary cap continues to rise. Still, he's worried about the gap between Faber's top-pairing reputation and the underlying performance markers of his rookie year.HockeyViz's isolated impact heat maps suggest Faber was essentially a net-negative offensive player and net-neutral defensive player at five-on-five. Also, it's often overlooked that he contributed to the NHL's third-worst penalty kill."If you're talking about sophomore slumps, unfortunately, Faber's got a perfect storm brewing," Han said. "For the first time as a pro, he's coming into a season with something to lose. That's a very dangerous mindset. You're now in a no-win situation and the game can get away from you very quickly." HockeyVizKraken forward Matty Beniers found himself in a similar situation last season. He set the bar high with a Calder-winning 2022-23. Then, in Year 2, his puck luck leveled out, his defensive responsibilities increased, and opposing teams targeted his weaknesses. Beniers was issued the "sophomore slump" label by midseason - even though he didn't actually take a tangible step backward.Helping the expectations around Faber? He played the final two months of 2023-24 with two cracked ribs. That might partially explain the wonky stats.Not helping Faber? He's a subtle player, far from the flashiest on the Wild. He's a strong skater, puck mover, and distributor (47 points as a rookie), but stick-checking and blocking shots are his bread and butter. First and foremost, he wants to kill the opposing attack every time he steps on the ice."I can try to impact the game more than just point-getting and power-play time and ice time. I don't know. I feel ready. I feel prepared. I'm healthy. I'm confident. And I'm still learning. I'm still trying to get better," Faber said."But that's how I look at it, right? I'm not someone who hangs my hat on scoring or getting points. I never have been and I never will be, as I'm a defenseman. I look at it a little differently. I want to defend against the best players in the world better this year than I did last year. Everyone talks about how I played great, but also, there were games when I was playing against those guys when I was horrible and they were great. So that's how I kind of look it. Little things, little milestones like that."John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore).

10 things we learned from the first 10 games of the NHL season

1 early reason for optimism, pessimism for Canada's NHL teams

Matthew Knies, 3 other NHLers who are leveling up to start the season

Thank you to the more than 60 people who submitted questions for the first edition of "NHL Inbox" - a forum in which readers can ask me anything hockey-related and I try my best to deliver an insightful answer.

Rosters for the 4 Nations Face-Off are due Dec. 2 and will be unveiled two days later. In other words, the clock's ticking louder by the day for management groups in Canada, Sweden, Finland, and the U.S.Each nation must select 23 players - 20 skaters and three goalies. Six picks were announced in June, which means 17 spots remain unfilled.Here, theScore's Josh Wegman and John Matisz debate the toughest decisions for Team Canada general manager Don Sweeney and his staff ahead of the February tournament. (Read our Team USA rundown here.)Forwards Leila Devlin / Getty ImagesAlready on roster: Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, Brad Marchand, Connor McDavid, Brayden PointNear locks: Mitch Marner, Sam Reinhart, Mark Stone5 spots left for: Mathew Barzal, Connor Bedard, Sam Bennett, Quinton Byfield, Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, Zach Hyman, Seth Jarvis, Wyatt Johnston, Travis Konecny, Alexis Lafreniere, Ryan O'Reilly, Mark Scheifele, Steven Stamkos, Nick Suzuki, Robert Thomas, Carter Verhaeghe, Tom WilsonWegman's picks: Bedard, Cirelli, Hagel, Hyman, KonecnyCanada has an embarrassment of riches up front, making these picks incredibly difficult. There are just so many ways Sweeney can go.Cirelli isn't overly popular in mock rosters, but I believe he's the perfect choice as Canada's fourth-line center. His skating, competitiveness, and intelligence make him a Selke Trophy-caliber defensive player who can match up against anyone. He's no slouch offensively, either, producing at a near-point-per-game clip this season. And head coach Jon Cooper trusts him immensely.The same can be said for Hagel, who would bring instant chemistry to a line led centered by either Point or Cirelli. Hagel is as skilled offensively as other contending players, plus he's super consistent. He'd also bring some competitive fire - not completely unlike Konecny, another feisty winger who'd fit a bottom-six role well.Hyman has picked things up after a slow start, so I'm sticking with him. Bedard's my 13th forward. He'll take on a bigger role at the 2026 Olympics.Matisz's picks: Bedard, Hyman, Konecny, Lafreniere, VerhaegheThe options are truly limitless.Still, three players jumped to the top of my queue. Verhaeghe could be an incredibly valuable piece as a true dual-threat winger. Lafreniere could easily assume a complementary role on a line that plays with pace and can tap into his quick-strike style. Bedard is a lethal triggerman whose goal-scoring totals have been suppressed in Chicago - he's ready to pop with better linemates.Konecny and Hyman were harder choices. Ultimately, both are connector types: highly intelligent wingers who've mastered wall play, puck hounding, and net-front havoc-wreaking. Hyman's chemistry with McDavid is a bonus.My toughest cuts were Johnston, Hagel, and Suzuki. I would've strongly considered Thomas as well if he weren't currently injured. And I like Cirelli, but I think Canada has a handful of better options at fourth-line center.Scheifele, who's tied for 17th in NHL scoring, deserves a mention. He probably makes the cut based on pure talent. However, his offense-first skill set would be redundant on a Canadian squad teeming with firepower.Defense Icon Sportswire / Getty ImagesAlready on roster: Cale MakarNear locks: Noah Dobson, Josh Morrissey, Devon Toews3 spots left for: Evan Bouchard, Drew Doughty, Dougie Hamilton, Brandon Montour, Colton Parayko, Adam Pelech, Alex Pietrangelo, Owen Power, Morgan Rielly, Shea Theodore, MacKenzie WeegarWegman's picks: Doughty, Parayko, PowerDoughty is the biggest question mark as he remains out with a fractured ankle suffered in preseason. If he's healthy in time for the tournament - a big "if" - he needs to be on this team. (He's projected to return in early January.)I opted to lean on size for my final two picks - Power and Parayko both stand at 6-foot-6. They played together at the 2024 World Championship, so there's already some familiarity if they combine forces on the third pair. Parayko, in particular, would bring much-needed nastiness and penalty-killing chops to a Canadian blue line that's rather undersized in the top four outside of Dobson.Matisz's picks: Doughty, Pietrangelo, TheodoreSweeney and his staff are reportedly keeping a close eye on Doughty's recovery. Barring an injury setback, he's tracking toward a key shutdown role.Canada should try to strike a balance between mobility/skill and size/toughness on the blue line, especially with question marks in goal. In my eyes, veterans Theodore and Pietrangelo best round out the defense corps. You know exactly what you're getting from both of them.Makar and Morrissey can each man the point on a power-play unit, while any of the seven defensemen is capable of hunkering down on the penalty kill.Goaltending Scott Rovak / Getty ImagesAlready on roster: NoneNear locks: None3 spots left for: Jordan Binnington, Mackenzie Blackwood, Marc-Andre Fleury, Adin Hill, Connor Ingram, Darcy Kuemper, Sam Montembeault, Stuart Skinner, Cam Talbot, Logan ThompsonWegman's picks: Binnington, Talbot, ThompsonCanada's goaltending is easily the most wide-open and intriguing position battle of the entire tournament. I was of the belief someone would separate themselves from the pack, but that hasn't been the case.I'm giving Binnington the nod as the nation's most consistent goalie in recent years, but I don't feel overly confident about it. He was playing relatively well this season until he was shelled for eight goals against the Capitals recently.I'm rolling with the hot hand for my other two picks. The 37-year-old Talbot seems to play well in whatever uniform he's wearing. That bodes well in a short tournament. He's been lights out despite playing behind a mediocre Red Wings team.Thompson, meanwhile, is beginning to emerge as the Capitals' go-to guy after a couple of promising tandem seasons with the Golden Knights.Matisz's picks: Binnington, Montembeault, TalbotIt feels like there's no great answer here. However, I'm going with Binnington as the starter, Talbot as the backup, and Montembeault as the third-stringer.Binnington hoisted the Stanley Cup more than five years ago, yet there's still something about the fiery competitor that screams "big-game player."Talbot has posted excellent underlying numbers this season (top five in the NHL in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, according to Sportlogiq).Montembeault has been quietly trending up over the past few seasons, his raw numbers dragged down by Montreal's putrid goaltending environment.!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r

Puck-stopping pains, Reinhart lapping Hyman, & more: 5 intriguing trends

Assessing the Rangers: Alarm bells, trade chips, and the big picture

Welcome to the second edition of NHL Inbox - a forum in which readers can ask me anything hockey-related, and I try my best to deliver an insightful answer.

Toronto Maple Leafs fans craved seismic change this past spring in the wake of the club's seventh opening-round playoff loss in eight Auston Matthews seasons.The offseason brought roster turnover but nothing "seismic." Punching-bag star forward Mitch Marner returned to compete alongside a handful of newcomers, including defenseman Chris Tanev and goalie Anthony Stolarz.Craig Berube replaced Sheldon Keefe as head coach in a move that certainly qualified as "big" but didn't necessarily satisfy the fan base's desires.Wait, wait, wait ... aren't the core players the problem? Kevin Sousa / Getty ImagesTwo-plus months into the season, the Leafs have accumulated 40 points in 31 games - the exact same amount Keefe's Leafs registered in the first 31 games last year. The journey to bank those 40 points has looked markedly different, however, with Berube overhauling the team's playing style dramatically.That's no exaggeration: Berube's Leafs are a borderline elite defensive squad. They're tied for the fifth-fewest goals against per game heading into Tuesday's slate thanks to tremendous goaltending, improved penalty killing, and smothering even-strength play. Toronto's leaped from 20th in the NHL to seventh in expected goals against per game at five-on-five action.Aside from (totally fair) concerns about the injury histories of Stolarz and partner Joseph Woll, there are no major red flags to worry about on defense.Gains made on one side of the puck may be impacting the other side negatively. The Leafs, whose 2.97 goals per game are tied with the Kraken for 19th in the league, have become a team that favors straightforwardness over creativity, dump-ins over rush attacks, and shot quantity over shot quality.Take a look at four illustrative Sportlogiq metrics:!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;rIt seems almost impossible for a roster with so much juice to rank last in chances off the rush. But the coach clearly wants to minimize risk (pucks in deep, pucks on net with traffic - all of the cliches), and the players are more or less delivering. (Marner, a super crafty playmaker, is thriving in this new system, racking up 41 points in 31 games to tie for ninth in league scoring.) Mark Blinch / Getty ImagesThere's a "what if" scenario here. Matthews, who torched the league for 69 goals last season, missed nine games to deal with an undisclosed injury and, when healthy, hasn't been at the peak of his powers. (His 10 goals are tied for fourth on the team.) If Matthews gets going, and the goal-starved bottom two lines start pitching in, Toronto's attack may suddenly look half-dangerous.Of course, none of these changes - good or bad - matter unless Berube's Leafs execute in the postseason. A chief reason why this group has failed is because the offensive drivers disappear for periods and games at a time. Does the new playing style unlock clutch performances, or does it make it even more unlikely Matthews, Marner, or someone else takes over a series?Either way, general manager Brad Treliving is tasked with adding offensive pop ahead of the trade deadline (an offense-first third-line center and offense-first bottom-pair blue-liner, perhaps) while not subtracting from the defense.KJ breakout SZN alert Icon Sportswire / Getty ImagesThe Blue Jackets are this year's version of the 2023-24 Flyers - a young, hard-working squad unexpectedly in the mix for a playoff spot in mid-December.Kent Johnson's breakout on the wing is a significant driving force.Previously a perimeter player who almost exclusively created offense through pull-ups and east-west passing, Johnson's suddenly an unpredictable attacker. He's been dangerous off the rush and in tight to the goalie this season after a summer of work on skating speed and puck-protection moves.Johnson, 22, is up to nine goals and nine assists in 17 games while logging a career-high 17:48 a night. He's bounced back well following a 14-game stint on the sidelines in late October and November to nurse an injured shoulder. Icon Sportswire / Getty ImagesThree advanced statistics help paint a fuller picture of his improvements: 7 high-danger shots on goal (source: NHL Edge) 23 speed bursts over 20 mph (NHL Edge) 34 end-to-end rushes (Sportlogiq) Johnson recorded eight high-danger shots on goal, 29 speed bursts over 20 mph, and 47 end-to-end rushes in 46 total games for Columbus last year. He's on pace to destroy those marks by his 46th game this season, with a projected 19 high-danger shots, 62 speed bursts, and 92 end-to-end rushes.The combination of a clean slate and physical maturity has also contributed to the breakout, which isn't out of nowhere for the 2021 fifth overall pick and 40-point rookie. Johnson, who's thriving under new coach Dean Evason, has packed on 12 pounds since fall 2022. He's now listed at 6-foot, 180 pounds.Johnson's in Year 1 of a three-year deal paying him $1.8 million annually. That deal, which leads him to restricted free agency, looks like a steal right now.Storytime with Brian Burke NHL Images / Getty ImagesLove or hate his hockey commentary, Brian Burke is a fantastic storyteller. The former GM of four different NHL teams can command a room with his candor.One of Burke's favorites is about his first draft as Canucks GM in 1999."It was the worst first round in the history of the league," he told a room of business professionals at the recent PrimeTime sports conference in Toronto.Patrik Stefan was the first pick. Pavel Brendl went fourth overall. Between those two forgettable top prospects: the Sedin twins - Henrik and Daniel - at second and third. "We didn't even like the twins in their draft year. We went to the world juniors in Winnipeg, and they were very average," Burke said.Thomas Gradin, Vancouver's Sweden-based amateur scout, called Burke later in the season to urge him to give the Sedins one last chance at the world championships in Norway. "OK, Thomas, I'll come over and watch, and we'll let this nonsense go. We're not drafting them," Burke recalled of his response.He continued: "I saw one shift with these twins on the big ice, against men, and I was like, 'Oh my God, we have to get them both.' One shift cured me." Bruce Bennett / Getty ImagesOnce he actually gave the Sedins a chance, Burke quickly became enamored with their character. They lived in a house in Ornskoldsvik, Sweden, that had been in the Sedin family for 150 years - family guys. They were incredible athletes - soccer stars and workout fiends - and extremely respectful kids.It took three trades, all registered on draft day, to land the second and third picks and convince the Thrashers, who were hosting, to select Stefan first. Trade 1: defenseman Bryan McCabe and Vancouver's first-round pick in 2000 to Chicago for fourth overall in 1999 Trade 2: fourth overall in 1999 and two third-rounders in 1999 to Tampa Bay for first overall in 1999 Trade 3: first overall in 1999 and a 2000 third-rounder to Atlanta for second overall and third overall in 1999 Burke fully understood how the twins tick in the season following their draft year. He flew to Europe to watch a Swedish Hockey League game, and ..."They were just horseshit," Burke said. "I went over to Thomas Gradin after the game and said, 'Those guys better have the flu or I'm firing you before we leave this rink.' I went over to talk to them, and the twins said they had a calculus test earlier in the day. They stayed up until 4 a.m. studying and both did very well on the test. 'Great answer, great answer.'"And the rest, as they say, is history. Hockey Hall of Fame history.Quick hits Kevin Sousa / Getty ImagesLast visor-less players: It dawned on me the other day that we're getting close to finding out the answer to a fun trivia question. Ryan O'Reilly, Matt Martin, Zach Bogosian, Jamie Benn, and Ryan Reaves are the only active NHLers playing without a protective shield on their helmets. (Visors became mandatory for new players a decade ago.) Martin, 35, will likely retire at the end of the season. Reaves, 37, is surely done once his contract expires in 2026. Bogosian, 34 and also a year away from free agency, might have one short-term contract left in him. That leaves Benn, 35, and O'Reilly, 33. My money's on O'Reilly - the younger, better player - becoming this generation's Craig MacTavish. I still can't believe MacT wasn't wearing a helmet in 1997! Will we look back in, say, 2050, and feel similarly about O'Reilly's visor-less ways?MVP-caliber splits: The Canucks are a completely different team with Quinn Hughes on the ice. Vancouver owns 59% of the shot attempts, 59% of the scoring chances, and 63% of the goals at five-on-five with their captain between the boards, according to Natural Stat Trick. With Hughes on the bench, the club owns 43% of attempts, 43% of chances, and 44% of goals. Those are stunning, Hart Trophy-esque on/off splits. Hughes, who leads all NHL blue-liners with 1.17 points per game, has been dominant in all three zones while other key pieces (Thatcher Demko, J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson) have been sidelined or struggling for huge chunks of the season. Bruce Bennett / Getty ImagesSabres spiral: Buffalo owns the longest playoff drought in NHL history. The Lindy Ruff-coached team is 0-7-3 in its past 10 games and 11-16-4 on the season. Yep, the drought's headed for a 14th season. The one constant over 14 years isn't a front-office executive or coach or player - it's owner Terry Pegula. He's horrendous at hiring GMs, doesn't give his GMs enough resources to build a proper staff, meddles too much in day-to-day operations, pisses off superstar players like Jack Eichel, and refuses to spend to the upper limit of the salary cap. Those are five cardinal sins for an owner, especially in the NHL's hard-cap system. High state taxes and a lack of palm trees have little to do with the dysfunction in Sabres land. It starts at the top.Not just book smart: Alex Kerfoot has shown over an eight-year career that he can assume the role of third wheel on pretty much any forward line. It's rare to be so versatile within one lineup, let alone three (Avalanche, Maple Leafs, now Utah). What makes Kerfoot different? "His brain. He's so smart," Utah head coach Andre Tourigny said of Kerfoot's hockey IQ. Kerfoot, who studied economics at Harvard, is almost always in the right position, skates and moves the puck well, never cheats for offense, and has enough offensive juice to hang with first-liners like Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz. He's a connector type during five-on-five action and a disrupter on the penalty kill. Kerfoot, 30, is third among NHL forwards in shorthanded ice time this season.John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore).