Julian Hebron

Since falling in 2008, Citigroup stock hasn’t recovered. Will Jane Fraser’s turnaround work?

To me, the biggest takeaway is a reminder that one of the best bank CEOs ever, Jamie Dimon, will leave his post within 5 years.

Mortgage delinquency rate up to 3.97% of all loans outstanding for 2Q24, per MBA. This tracks extremely closely to the unemployment rate.

Conference season is now year-round for most industries, but Fall is most important in the mortgage sector.

The American Dream now costs $4.4 million, which is estimated lifetime cost of getting married, raising 2 kids, buying a home, having new cars, saving for retirement, and going on yearly vacations

Why? Because mortgage rates fall when bonds rally on current or anticipated good news. So as bond traders have anticipated the good news of Fed cuts beginning September 18, they've bought mortgage bonds.

Janet Yellen, who formerly ran Fed and now runs Treasury: "I'm attentive to downside risks now on the employment side, but I what I think we're seeing, we will continue to see, is a good, solid economy,"

– There's nothing in the data that's ringing recession alarm bells. – We're settling into a slower expansion. That's it.

Here's the Fed's projections showing they may cut a total of 100 basis points in 2024, and another 100 basis points in 2025. Spot on or too aggressive?

Bond trading lowered mortgage rates 1.375% from April to now. After today's Fed cut, mortgage bonds gave some back, pushing rates up a bit. Strange but true.