Prepare to be disappointed by Thursday’s gross domestic product report. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect the report will show that GDP grew at a 2% annual rate in the first quarter, a bit softer than the fourth quarter’s 2.6%. That isn’t too shabby considering some of the challen
Articles
Employment costs and other inflation measures cement a Fed increase next week and possibly later too.
Fresh signs of stress in the banking system and debt ceiling risks could make Wednesday’s rate increase the last for a while.
Stocks might be under pressure even if the U.S. economy avoids a downturn.
Federal Reserve unlikely to raise rates next month but for it to stay on sidelines, inflation needs to cool quickly.
The best outcome would be for a debt-ceiling deal to be reached before the market starts ringing alarm bells, but that might not be in the cards.
Inversions of the yield curve have been reliable harbingers of past recessions, but right now it could just be a reflection of flawed market assumptions.
Even with the possibility of default, betting on Treasurys could pay off again.
Would-be tourists have the money and the desire to hit the road this summer. The increased spending on travel could even help fend off a recession.
By: Justin Lahart
Labor-market resilience adds to the likelihood that the Fed isn’t done with interest-rate increases.