Karl Setzer

No changes were made to U.S. corn balance sheets in the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. This held the U.S. corn carryout at 2.127 billion bushels.

A survey conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation shows 70 percent of U.S. farmers claim fertilizer costs have risen to a point where they will not be able to afford all this season’s needs. Farmers in the Midwest had the most coverage, but even there, 48 percent of producers cannot afford all the year’s needs. Farmers in Southern States are the worst off with 80 percent unable to purchase this year’s fertilizer needs.

The International Grains Council has revised its world carryout numbers. More interest is starting to fall on the world corn inventory that the IGC is predicting at 292 million metric

The list of global grain producers that are expected to trim high-cost crops this year is expanding. We have now heard from the European Union with sources claiming corn for grain plantings this year will fall below 20 million acres for the first time in over 100 years. As with most others grain producers, high input costs are the primary cause. Any crop that is nitrogen intensive is going to see fewer acres this year, including in the U.S. Several sources are also showing concern over the elevated handling charges for corn, especially the potential cost of grain drying next fall.

The list of global grain producers expected to trim high cost crops this year is expanding. We have now heard from the European Union with sources claiming corn for grain

US corn carryout for the 2025/26 marketing year was bumped up 15 million bushels to a total of 2.14 billion bushels. This was the result of a 15 million bushels

U.S. corn carryout for the 2025/26 marketing year was bumped up 15 million bu to a total of 2.14 billion bu. This was the result of a 15 mbu decrease in feed, seed and industrial demand. For the 2026/27 marketing year, the USDA predicted a yield of 183 bushels per acre and a crop of 15.995 bbu. Harvested acres are estimated at 87.4 million, 3.9 million fewer than last year. This crop is a large 1.03 bbu less than the 2025/26 crop and a smaller crop than this year’s 16.45 bbu of demand. Several sources of corn demand were lowered as demand will be rationed, with total use falling 250 mbu. This still leaves projected corn demand 205 mbu larger than production. New crop ending stocks are projected at 1.957 bbu, a 12 percent stocks to use. This equates to an average cash corn value of $4.40 per bushel.

After several weeks of uncertainty, the U.S. and China have come to an outline for future trade. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has stated that China would be buying “billions” of dollars of ag products, not just soybeans, over the next three years. According to the White House fact sheet, China has agreed to purchase $17 billion of ag products between 2026 and 2028. This is above and beyond the $25 billion in soybeans China has already agreed to purchases over the same period, and a welcome relief for U.S. exporters.

After several weeks of uncertainty, the U.S. and China have come to an outline for future trade. US Trade Representative Greer has stated China would be buying “billions” of dollars

Corn and soybean planting has reached a point where trade is not too concerned with future progress falling behind normal. The overall pace has slowed according to weekly numbers, but