Matthew Graham

Bonds lost ground this morning despite a weaker S&P PMI headline. While there were some mitigating factors beyond the headline, we could just as easily conclude that traders are erring on the side of caution heading into a week of Treasury auction supply with another big jobs report on Friday--all while being forced to wait an unknown amount of time to find out where the rubber meets the road on fiscal policies that could further affect the outlook for the economy, inflation, and Treasury issuance. All told, today's volatility was mild at best and we didn't learn anything new about the bigger picture.

Joe Burrow barely missed the playoffs in an MVP-caliber, yet disappointing season, for the Cincinnati Bengals. But now most NFL fans want to know simply, is he

It's all fun and games on ESPN's 'NFL Live' set until Kimes walks directly in front of Rutledge's camera shot. That's especially true with such a stellar look.

We came into the current week knowing that rates would take cues from any clear cues in this week's economic data. In general, that means higher rates in response to stronger data or lower rates if the data is weaker. Today's data was stronger across the board. One of the most closely watched economic reports that most people have never heard of--ISM's Service sector index--was only a bit higher than markets expected, but the report includes separate components for things like employment and prices. Today's release showed a sharp increase in prices and that's a particularly sensitive subject for rates these days. At the same time, the US government released job openings numbers which showed an unexpected uptick back to the highest levels in 6 months. Higher jobs openings tend to coincide with higher rates. Incidentally, mortgage rates also matched their highest levels in 6 months today, last seen on December 19th and July 1st. On the plus side, this didn't represent a huge move from yesterday's latest levels with the average lender only increasing 30yr fixed rates by 0.04%.

Netflix debut WWE 'Monday Night RAW' with many big stars in attendance. But the one fans were most excited to see was a famous face from childhood.

High hopes and crossed fingers may help one's outlook in advance of key economic data, but they are powerless once the data comes out. In today's case, the Job Openings data coincided with ISM Services at 10am to deliver a one-two punch to bond bulls. Both were stronger than expected. ISM was especially troubling. It is the heavier hitter of those two reports and several of the internal components added insult to injury (e.g. "prices" component at 64.4 vs 58.2 last time, not boding well for inflation next week). Bonds saw the writing on the wall instantly. Yields are now up to the highest levels since April 2024.

Bonds reacted logically to this morning's econ data at 10am. ISM Services'inflation component was one of the worst offenders, but higher job openings didn't help. The spike in yields was instantaneous but fairly well contained. Bonds managed to drift sideways for the entire session after that with no discernible reaction to the 10yr Treasury auction (not a surprise considering it was very close to expected levels). All told, yields inched up to the highest since April 2024, but in a very orderly way.

Jobless claims data is normally a Thursday affair, but Federal economic data is not being released tomorrow due to the Jimmy Carter Day of Mourning (markets still open a half day). As such, we received it this morning along with ADP Employment. Neither report caused any drama for rates, but neither prompted an obvious response. If there's a market mover so far this morning, it's a series of relatively friendly comments from Fed's Waller who downplayed tariff impacts on inflation and, despite acknowledging the uncertainty associated with new fiscal policies, said there are more rate cuts ahead.

For the second day in a row, mortgage rates have moved higher at a modest to moderate pace. Unfortunately, that's been a trend so far in 2025 and it's compounded by the fact that rates were already close to their recent highs.

The always fashionable 'First Take' host bragged about her attire rolling into ESPN on a frigid day. Co-host Stephen A. Smith then gave her major flowers.