Matthew Graham

Cumbria's Police, Fire and Crime Commissioner (PFCC) has reiterated that the public must report crimes via the proper channels, and not social media.

A man has been banned from driving after he was caught behind the wheel under the influence of drugs.

A driver has been found guilty of drug-driving after being caught behind the wheel with an illegal substance in her system.

A reggae artist championed by broadcaster Craig Charles is set to perform in Carlisle.

Last week's focus for war-related headlines involved various attempts to hone in on just how close we were to a confirmed preliminary peace deal. The results were predictable with bonds moving to their lowest yields in weeks. The shoe is very much on the other foot to start the new week with headlines saying Iran is pulling out of peace talks until the Israel/Lebanon fighting ends. In addition, the IRGC is said to be taking control of diplomacy and threatening to re-block the strait. With that, 10yr yields jumped back up near the highest levels in over a week and MBS dropped a quick 3/8ths of a point.

Following last week's relatively strong move to the lowest levels since May 14th, mortgage rates bounced slightly higher to start the news week. The move followed a clear shift in the Iran war news cycle with morning headlines citing Iranian officials saying the peace negotiation were effectively tabled as long as hostilities remained between Israel and Lebanon. As a refresher, the Iran war is bad for rates primarily due to the actual and implied impact on inflation due to higher fuel costs. Bonds dictate rates and bonds hate inflation. There was an immediate and moderately sharp reaction in both oil prices and bonds right when this morning's news came out. Fortunately, the damage was fairly mild for mortgage rates with the average lender moving up 0.04% to 6.60% for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario. This is still 0.10% lower than the most recent high of 5.70% seen on May 19th.

As has been almost constantly the case for the past few months, today's ebbs and flows in the bond market were tightly tied to the Iran war news cycle. Yields spiked after AM headlines suggested Iran was not interested in negotiating as long as fighting continues between Israel and Lebanon. Bonds bounced back in a friendlier direction after mid-day news that Trump would talk to Netanyahu about de-escalating. Nothing conclusive came from that conversation by the 3pm ET close and 10yr yields remained roughly 3bps higher on the day. Tuesday's slate of potential volatility receives an additional (though mild) layer of complication from the job openings data at 10am ET.

We saw big ticket econ data move the needle a bit last week and have thus been prepared for this week's big ticket reports to have a similar chance to cause volatility. For a few moments this morning, that proved to be the case after job openings jumped by the highest amount since early 2021 and hit the highest levels since late 2025. In relative terms, it was the largest percent change since 2015 outside the initial pandemic whipsaw in 2020. Given those details, the initial selling of roughly 1bp in 10yr yields seems pretty mild (and it is). Moreover, bonds have already mostly bounced back to pre-data levels as they continue preferring to track oil prices.

It was an uneventful day for the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates. Unlike the average trading day of late, there were no conspicuous war-related headlines making for shocks to oil prices.

No one will accuse us of clickbait titles today, or even clickbait analysis. There's just not much to say. Unlike the average trading day of late, bonds held inside a very narrow range AND didn't visibly respond to any major Iran war news (and the typical oil price volatility that follows). Oil prices definitely moved a bit, and bond yields generally followed, but the range was well inside yesterday's. For a few minutes, it looked like bonds were going to struggle with the job openings data, but they quickly found their footing and drifted sideways into the close.