Nick Paulson

Nick Paulson - Nick Paulson - Continued price declines have created concerns about farm incomes for 2023 and 2024. The price declines and county yield experience for 2023 suggest that PLC and ARC-CO payments are not likely to be triggered in most areas for corn, soybeans, or wheat. Even if ARC or PLC trigger support for 2024, would not be received until October of 2025. Given the current price outlook, careful budgeting and cash flow planning for the rest of 2024 and into 2025 will be critical.

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Carl Zulauf - Carl Zulauf -

Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, Gary Schnitkey, and Nick Paulson - Carl Zulauf - In general, little relationship was found to exist between SCO payment per SCO insured acre and ARC-CO and PLC payment per base acre for barley, corn, oats, peanuts, long and medium grain rice, Japonica rice, sorghum, soybeans, and wheat over the 2015-2022 crop years. This finding raises questions about why SCO insurance can be purchased for historical base acres elected into PLC but not for historical base acres elected into ARC-CO.

Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson, and Carl Zulauf - Gary Schnitkey - A steep decline in prices across years has resulted in low to negative average returns to Midwest farms in 2023 and projected for 2024. Crop insurance programs are not designed to cover the risk of multi-year price declines and current commodity title programs are also expected to provide little relief for these low prices. Modifying commodity title programs to make them more market-responsive would aid in providing relief to farmers.

Carl Zulauf, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, and Nick Paulson - Carl Zulauf - Since the 1996 Farm Bill’s seminal policy change that gave farmers the freedom to decide which crops to plant or not plant, land in US farms has declined by 75 million acres or -8%. Most (88%) of the decline occurred in pastureland. It is thus incorrect to equate the loss of farmland to a loss of cropland. Cropland has declined by only -2% while pastureland has declined by -13%. The sizable decline in pastureland is consistent with the growth in confinement animal production.

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Bradley Zwilling, and Carl Zulauf - Nick Paulson - Illinois crop budgets for 2025 are now available and, overall, projections are for lower production costs for corn and soybeans in 2025 compared with 2024. Break-even prices to cover all costs, including cash rent for farmland, range from $4.60 to $4.66 per bushel for corn and $11.01 to $11.56 per bushel for soybeans. Despite lower cost projections, current expectations for corn and soybean prices suggest negative farmer returns to corn and soybeans across all regions of Illinois in 2025.

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Carl Zulauf - Nick Paulson -

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Carl Zulauf, Jonathan Coppess - Uncategorized - The 2023 Commodity title program will make payments this fall, and payment rates for Price Loss Coverage and Agriculture Risk Coverage at the county level have been released. No PLC payments were triggered for corn, soybeans, or wheat as the 2023 MYA prices for these crops were all above their respective effective reference prices. ARC-CO payments for corn, soybeans, and wheat were triggered in a relatively small number of counties nationally.

Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson, Carl Zulauf, and Jim Baltz - Gary Schnitkey -

Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Carl Zulauf - Nick Paulson - Lower returns to rented land and higher interest rates began to signal the potential for downward pressure on farmland values in 2023. Those signals continue, with current fundamentals suggesting land value reductions of around 3% in 2025. A 3% decline would be in line with observed adjustments since the 1980s as well as expectations from professional farm managers surveyed in 2024. On the other hand, valid arguments exist for continued strength in farmland values.