Paul Campos

Fascist Al Jolson Imitation, October 30, 2024 This is a semi-open thread dedicated to discussing all things election-related. A few random comments to get things rolling: (1) We’re already into anticipatory recrimination season, with several pieces out there about who will get blamed if Harris loses. I don’t want to shock anybody but centrist Democrats […]

Dr. Professor Naomi Wolf, Author of Eight NYT Bestsellers supposedly: (Didn't realize Poetry was a credential)

This would be pretty funny if it wasn't contributing to the possibility that we won't get to vote any more for quite awhile:

Reading the tea leaves, I think the single most likely outcome of this little election thing we're having is that the Great Lakes Blue Wall holds, Trump takes AZ, GA, NC, and NV, and Harris wins 270-268, because one of Nebraska's electoral votes goes to her. (I'm not saying this outcome is likely in absolute terms, I'm semi-guessing that it's more likely than any other single combination of states).

Sometimes in the midst of the chaos it’s easy to lose sight of what should be really obvious facts. The flip side of this is that the chaos is real, and Monday morning quarterbacking is a product of failing to take that fully into account. In that light, let’s go back to the period between […]

(1) The Selzer Iowa poll is a big deal. Selter’s 2016 and 2020 Iowa polls called one-sided wins for Trump when the national polls were saying it was much closer. Her data show older white women breaking hard for Harris, and if that’s accurate there’s every reason to think there are systematic polling errors underestimating […]

Several weeks ago the Trump campaign made the fateful decision to put trans issues — or more properly “issues” — at the center of its political advertising, rather than inflation or The Crisis at the Border ™, which are two issues that surveys suggest voters in general and swing voters in particular care about way more.

The most respected national pollsters all agree that, on the eve of Election Day, the presidential race is as close to a tossup as one can have. What to make of this?

Here at the end of the Internet, it's a tradition to ask commenters to predict on their eve the outcome of presidential elections. Note that this is not a contest, in that any putative winner will gain nothing but eternal blog glory.

Bernard “Bernie” Marcus, the billionaire Home Depot cofounder and a Republican megadonor, who in recent years became an outspoken supporter of former President Donald Trump, has died, according to an internal memo obtained by CNN. He was 95.