Paul Spirgel

hints DE inflation declining; ECB cut odds rise EUR/USD retreat gathers momentum as ECB Oct cut risk rises

hint at less-dovish BoC/Fed LSEG's IRPR shows Sept -50bp odds and Fed cuts into YE 2024 moving lower Next week's U.S. payroll now in focus amid Fed focus on employment mandate $CAD res 1.3509 Friday post-PCE high, 1.3535 the falling 10-DMA Supt 1.3466 Friday low, 1.3441 Aug 27 low, 1.3400 lwr 21-d Bolli/big-figure

Sentiment/conditions/expectations rise adds to USD allure Supt at 1.3110 Fri low, 1.3077 Aug 22 low, 1.29067 50% Fib of 1.2666-1.3269 Res 1.3149 rising 200HMA, 1.3200 Friday high, 1.3269 2024 high hit on Aug 27 Next Friday's U.S. payrolls in focus for clues to Fed policy path

$CAD Up a touch in early NorAm, +0.06% at 1.3515; Thurs range 1.3523-04 Pair trades defensively ahead of Friday U.S. payroll data Fed -25bp in Sept fully priced, -50bp odds near 40%; BoC -56bp by Dec 2024 Res at 1.3523 Thurs high, 1.3560 23.6% Fib of 1.3946-1.3441. 1.3586 200-DMA

amid widening Fed-BoE rate expectations NFP f/c 160k vs 114k in July, range 100k-246k; earnings seen slightly higher LSEG's IRPR pricing 100% odds for Fed -25bp in Sep, 40% odds for -50bp Wider U.S.-UK rate outlook likely to keep GBP$ bid, on way to new 2024 highs GBP$ res 1.3180 Thurs high, 1.32 Aug 30 high, 1.3269 2024 high hit on Aug 27

USD net G10 short grew by $8.4bn in the Aug 28-Sep 3 IMM period; $IDX +1.14% Fed policy key for moves; -25bp Fed in Sept baked in, -50bp still debated EUR$ -1.24%, specs +7,180 contracts now +100,018 on lwr Fed rate view $JPY +1.09%; specs *15,248 contracts now +41,116 on Fed-BoJ rate convergence GBP -1.07% specs +18,147 contracts, now 108k; Fed-BoE rates widen in 24/25

$CAD firm in early NY, +0.34% at 1.3604; Tuesday range 1.3615-1.3557 Soft commodities in absence of CA/US data weighs on CAD; oil -3%, copper -1% Wednesday's U.S. CPI in focus for clues at pace of Fed easing LSEG's IRPR indicates 31% odds for -25bp Fed in Sept; -114bp by Dec meeting BoC seen cutting in Oct, -62bp by YE 2024, in addition to 50bp cuts already

(supply concerns) higher ETF flows Click here and c.bank shift to lower rates props up BTC BTC res 58.5k Thurs high, 58.7k 50% Fib of 65k-52.5k, 60.8k the 55-DMA Supt 57.1k Thurs low, 56.4k the 10-DMA, 55.4k Sept 11 low

USD net spec USD short pared by $3.2bn in the Sep 4-10 period; $IDX -0.05% USD has dipped since the period close as odds 0f -50bp Fed Sept 18 rise EUR$ -0.21%; specs -18,585 contracts now +81,433; mkt wary of ECB 25bp cut $JPY -2.02% in period; specs +14,654 contracts now +55,770 Fed-BoJ rate convergence continues to apply downward pressure on $JPY

$CAD hovers near flat at 1.3586 in early NorAm; Mon range 1.3602-1.3586