Paul Spirgel

GBP$ soft into Lon close, -0.4% at 1.27; Europe range 1.2787-1.2672 Bulls exhausted after recent tests of resistance near 1.28 Bears push pair below 1.27 to 1-week low 1.2672 Markets sense less-dovish Fed policy path after expected 25bp cut Dec. 18 BoE guides for 4- 25bp cuts in 2025, may overtake current mkt view of 3 cuts

after bulls fail near 1.28 UK GDP, output data Friday, payrolls Tuesday, CPI Wednesday in focus pre-MPC STIR futs indicate BoE rate hold on Dec 19,

GBP$ near session low in NY afternoon, -0.45% at 1.2614; Fri range 1.2678-08

$IDX +0.01 in Dec 4-10 IMM period, Spec net USD G10 position +1$1.50bn Trump-trade USD bid gives way to less-dovish Fed in 2025-related bid EUR$ +0.2% in period; specs -8.1k contracts now -75.6k on dovish ECB view $JPY +1.58%, specs +23.4k contracts now +25.8k on less-dovish BoJ view

GBP$ firm into Lon close, +0.18% at 1.2706; Tuesday range 1.2715-1.2669 GBP boosted in early NorAm after UST yields dipped from early session highs Wednesday Fed rate decision in focus; marts expect hawkish Fed 25bp cut Inflation persistence tempers dovish Fed path; HL/core CPI basing by 3%

GBP$ firm in NorAm afternoon +0.28% at 1.2719, Tuesday range 1.2728-1.2669 Pair abv 1.27 after UST yields reverse early NorAm rise Sterling yield advantage props up GBP ahead of upcoming Fed, BoE decisions

GBP$ fades into Europe cls, -0.2% at 1.2685; Europe range 1.2730-1.2681 Pair sits near NorAm session low, UST yields mixed ahead of Fed U.S. yield curve steepening, 2-yr -2bp, 10-yr +1bp; Fed seen -25bp Traders await post-decision presser for hints at 2025 policy path LSEG's IRPR pricing a touch less than 3-25bp cuts in 2025 Thursday BoE also on radar, futures price hold, -51bp in 2025 Also BoE guidance post-decision in focus for policy clues GBP$ res 1.2730 Tues/Wed high area, 1.2787 Dec 12 high, 1.2819 the 200-DMA

of further reductions, firmer inflation BoE may hold more sway for sterling than the Fed

GBP$ soft in NY afternoon, -0.43% at 1.2518; NorAm range 1.2628-1.2505 Pre-BoE GBP$ bounce reversed, pair sinks to 4-wk low at 1.2505 BoE dovish hold sinks GBP despite BoE's

GBP/USD bulls were thrown a lifeline on Friday in the form of below-forecast U.S. PCE data, which slightly softened market expectations of the Fed rates in second half of 2025 and could keep cable off recent trend lows.