Peter Virovacz

Even before the Federal Reserve’s latest decision, we were leaning towards a 25bp cut at the September NBH meeting. Post-Fed, we see a non-negligible chance of a slight dovish shift in forward guidance, with the 6.00-6.25% range cited as a realistic target for the 2024 terminal rate

Should the Fed have just cut to the chase and slashed rates by 200 basis points this week? Don’t worry, James Smith hasn’t (fully) taken leave of his senses. Read on as he explains why central banks may be forced to go faster, as the team looks ahead to another important week in the world of macro and markets

Wage growth accelerated again in July as wage outflows in the corporate sector increased. We still see latent inflation risks stemming from the tight labour market and strong real wage growth, but this is more of a story for 2025

After the shortest possible pause in the easing cycle, the NBH was back in business, cutting its key rate by 25bp in September. The change in forward guidance suggests an unchanged view on the future path of interest rates, so our base case remains one more cut over the rest of the year

After the shortest possible pause in the easing cycle, the NBH was back in business, cutting its key rate by 25bp in September. The change in forward guidance suggests an unchanged view on the future path of interest rates, so our base case remains one more cut over the rest of the year.

This year remains a year of recovery that is not yet complete, but we are hopeful for a better future

After months of stagnation, the volume of retail sales rose in August for the first time since March 2024. The upside surprise is cause for cautious optimism, but hardly a trend reversal when looking at the bigger picture

Inflation fell in September, hitting the central bank’s target for the first time since early 2021. Price pressures eased in services, but picked up in food. Despite the seemingly benign picture, it is FX stability rather than inflation data that will drive monetary policy decisions

While interest rate markets are proving supportive for the Polish zloty and the Czech koruna, the outlook is not so clear-cut for the Hungarian forint, which will remain fragile. Elsewhere, expect investors to continue to chase carry in the Turkish lira. And we are starting to now think that the South African rand can surprise on the upside

An unfavourable turn of events closes the door on an October rate cut