Peter Virovacz

The first batch of fourth-quarter economic data offers a glimmer of hope that the technical recession, as sudden as it was, will fade just as quickly. But one swallow doesn’t make a summer, and the overall picture is still bleak

James Smith’s festive look at the week ahead

Image source: Pixabay Struggling with your last minute Christmas shopping? James Smith has you covered with his, erm, eclectic gift list.

As expected, inflation began to rise at a faster pace as the year drew to a close. Fuel and food prices rose. The data release is broadly positive for monetary policy, but households are likely to perceive this differently, which may further undermine consumer confidence

Divergence is emerging within the CEE space

In our view, the interest rate complex will remain on hold at the National Bank of Hungary’s last meeting of the year. Although the macro outlook could support easing policy, the Hungarian forint is simply not ready for such a move

President Trump means higher growth in 2026 and beyond? Oh no he doesn’t! And the UK doesn’t need to raise taxes any further? Oh yes it will! Enter the auditorium of James Smith’s economic pantomime and gear up for 2024’s grand finale

Incoming President Trump promises higher growth in 2026 and beyond? No, he doesn't. And the UK won't raise taxes any further? Yes, it will.

Further pause in cutting interest rates supports the National Bank of Hungary’s stability-orientated approach

We learned in 2024 that all that glitters is not gold, but there are already encouraging signs for 2025