Rachel Robinson

We diagnose physical factors related to frequent compound drought and heat extremes over a Middle East and Southwest Asia (MESA; 30°–40°N, 35°–65°E) region in a recent (1999–2022) compared to a prior (1951–98) period. The recent compound extremes were related to conflict, disease transmission, and water shortages in this already semiarid region. Observed estimates and four transient climate model ensembles are used to identify the effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and atmospheric forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols on these compound extremes in autumn (September–November), winter (December–February), spring (March–May), and summer (June–August) that may lead to practical forecast skill for future compound events. Observations and climate models indicate that MESA compound drought and heat in the autumn, winter, and spring wet seasons for the recent period were related to the La Niña phase of ENSO and an attendant northward shift of the storm track that hinders precipitation-bearing storms from moving through MESA. A comparison of different conditions in the model simulations is used to isolate the effects of La Niña and the atmospheric forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols on compound MESA drought and heat. A comparison of recent and prior periods in the climate models, which isolates the effects of the atmospheric forcing, indicates that greenhouse gases and aerosols are related to the increases in MESA heat frequency in all seasons. A comparison of La Niña to ENSO neutral and El Niño in the recent period of the climate models indicates that La Niña is related to increases in MESA drought frequency in the wet seasons.

Please help. I saw an old boyfriend today and, based on our text communications about how much he wanted to be with me, I was expecting him to take me in his arms and kiss me. When he made no moves, when he didn’t so much as react to my flirty comments, I was devastated.

As we mark our third year as an IRO, we reflect on the impact of our research in 2023 and look ahead to our plans for 2024.

On 23rd March at 7.30pm in St Lawrence Church Towcester there will be a performance of Mendelssohn's oratorio 'Elijah'

"Just to say that I think the new look to the NN12 site is excellent! It's packed with information but not over-crowded and in-yer-face like a lot of sites. It's great to scroll down and see all the ne..."

Potential predictability of two-year droughts indicated by low runoff in consecutive April-September seasons in the Upper (UMRB) and Lower (LMRB) Missouri River Basin are examined with observed estimates and climate models. The majority of annual runoff is generated in April-September, which is also the main precipitation and evapotranspiration season. Physical features related to low April-September runoff in both UMRB and LMRB include a dry land surface state indicated by low soil moisture, low snowpack indicated by low snow water equivalent, and a wave train across the Pacific-North American region that can be generated internally by the atmosphere or forced by the La Niña phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. When present in March, these features increase the risk of low runoff in the following April-September warm seasons. Antecedent low soil moisture significantly increases low runoff risks in each of the following two April-September, as the dry land surfaces decrease runoff efficiency. Initial low snow water equivalent, especially in the Missouri River headwaters of Montana, generates less runoff in the subsequent warm season. La Niña increases the risk of low runoff during the warm seasons by suppressing precipitation via dynamical-induced atmospheric circulation anomalies. Model simulations that differ in their radiative forcing suggest that climate change increases the predictability of two-year droughts in the Missouri River Basin related to La Niña. The relative risk of low runoff in the second April-September following a La Niña event in March is greater in the presence of stronger radiative forcing.

Despite being preventable and treatable, malaria threatens the lives of 3.2 billion people around the world.

I was chatting with a couple of friends and the topic turned to clearing out a loved one’s belongings after they’ve passed away and some of the interesting, strange or inexplicable belongings we found. One said that, while cleaning out her father’s place she found — amongst other sex items — a metal butt plug in his freezer. None of us had an explanation as to why, and I just threw out that maybe he was freezing it to kill the bacteria.

'Coming to America' -Towcester Choral Society’s Summer Concert will be a celebration of the best in American choral music.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – On the cusp of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament, seven Eastern Kentucky University women's soccer student-athletes combined for nine ASUN postseason awards, announced by the league office from its headquarters on Wednesday afternoon.