Stephen Grootes

While there has been much discussion about the results of South Africa's elections earlier this year, and the ANC's acceptance of them (mainly because they are still the biggest party in government), this may one day be seen as part of a broader change in southern Africa.

The biggest political question in SA is whether the national coalition government will survive. Key to that is whether the economy will grow and create jobs. Interest rates and a decision about whether to lower the inflation target of the SA Reserve Bank could be a major factor — yet decisions are made about this without any public consultation.

The furore over the prepaid meter update is a clear example of how a government and its entities should not communicate. It shows how those who run our electricity system are completely out of touch with realities on the ground. This will further undermine any attempts to legitimise the electricity tariff system and make it harder to convince people to pay for electricity.

Jacob Zuma's own weaknesses and choice of strategy make it almost impossible for him to again win mass support across the country.

On Wednesday this week, a series of by-elections will be held in parts of the country. The results will be examined for what clues they might give to political trends. But history suggests that one should be a little sceptical about how useful this can be as a tool. This is mainly because while many wards will see around half of their residents voting in local elections, by-elections can be decided by as few as 4% of voters. This reduces their use in trying to predict future political shifts.

The ANC's alliance with the DA in the coalition government has alienated its communist Tripartite Alliance partner, which wants to contest the 2027 local government elections on its own.

President Cyril Ramaphosa's decision to move Thembi Simelane from her position as justice and constitutional development minister while retaining her in Cabinet raises questions about his political will and power. If he cannot act against someone against whom there is compelling evidence of wrongdoing, then when can he act? His power base in the ANC could be more fragile than previously thought.

When Julius Malema arrives at the EFF conference this week, he may be aware this will probably be the toughest he has faced since being elected leader of the ANC Youth League in 2008. His party lost significant support in the national and provincial elections, several important figures have defected to MK, and his path to national power looks more difficult than ever. The decisions he makes at this conference might determine the long-term future of the EFF.

When Julius Malema arrives at the EFF conference this week, he may be aware this will probably be the toughest he has faced since being elected leader of the ANC Youth League in 2008. His party lost significant support in the national and provincial elections, several important figures have defected to MK, and his path to national power looks more difficult than ever. The decisions he makes at this conference might determine the long-term future of the EFF.

Recent reports that a faction of the ANC was pushing President Cyril Ramaphosa to remove the DA’s Siviwe Gwarube as Minister of Basic Education, and the immediate pushback from her party, reveal how difficult any kind of reshuffle involving parties other than the ANC will be. This will have huge implications for governance and may reveal that one of the true elements of the coalition is simple self-interest.