Stephen Punwasi

Canada tried to solve its lack of skilled labor with immigration, but it's having the opposite effect.

Millions of Canadian visas expire next year and the country isn't sure how to deal with it. That became clear when policymakers fumbled in parliament when answering what Canada plans to do if people refuse to leave. The Government of Canada (GoC) expects nearly 5 million visas to expire next year, and hopes those who lose residency will leave voluntarily. That's likely what will happen in most cases, but the GoC has a long history of struggling to deal with those who refuse an order to leave—from global crime bosses to foreign warlords.

Canada's economy is still chugging along, and doing better than many experts thought. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows Gross Domestic Product (GDP) advanced in Q3 2024, mainly driven by household borrowing and government spending. A continued drop in per-capita GDP was almost entirely overshadowed by big upward revisions to prior data. One of the country's largest banks notes this completely changes the economic outlook, trimming expectations the Bank of Canada (BoC) will pursue aggressive rate cuts.

What pandemic? Statistics Canada (Stat Can) recently revised its gross domestic product (GDP) data to show the economy is doing better. Revisions are routine, just not at this scale—which BMO called “re-writing” the pandemic. Now the data shows the hardest hit industries weren't nearly as impacted as previously believed, and they've all recovered at this point. The bank believes this doesn't really “jibe” with reality, but if taken at face value the economy only experienced minor hiccups.

Canadians can add another crisis to the pile—productivity. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows labor productivity fell in Q3 2024, extending a problem that’s been happening for years. The country has shown virtually no progress over the past decade, falling sharply behind its biggest trade partner. The problem is wreaking havoc in a number of […]

Canada isn't officially in a recession, but its largest city is already experiencing one. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows seasonally adjusted unemployment in Toronto CMA surged in November. Nearly 1 in 10 of the region's workers are struggling to find work despite actively looking. The unemployment rate is now at levels not seen outside of the deepest recessions, with the jobless population hitting pandemic levels.

Canada's weak dollar may be good news for foreign capital but bad news for the cost of living. The loonie has plunged against the US dollar in recent months, and it's unlikely to improve soon. Currency weakness has been a blow to manufacturers of complex and expensive goods like housing, which have seen input costs rise despite falling CPI. At least one Big Six bank sees the loonie extending its weakness with little relief in sight. That's bad news for homebuilders, and the cost of living in general—even if CPI methodology fails to reflect this shift.

Canadian interest rates might be coming down but the bond market is signaling higher mortgage rates. The Government of Canada (GoC) bond yields have reverse coursed and begun to climb sharply since central bank rate cuts earlier this week. Rising yields directly impact the cost of financing fixed-rate mortgages, which have been the most affordable borrowing tool offered. Those waiting for further rate cuts might be disappointed as bond yields surge post-rate cuts.

The Canadian and American economies often move together, but the loonie is the latest sign that won’t be the case this time. The Canadian dollar has been plunging against the US dollar, a.k.a. Greenback. That loonie’s erosion was amplified this month as the two central banks diverged on outlooks for their respective economies, with the […]

Who needs a pandemic when every day can be an “exceptional circumstance” for the market? A new report from the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada (FCAC), the country’s consumer watchdog, outlines the extraordinary mortgage relief measures it continues to deliver via the country’s banks. The agency delivered more than 8,000 mortgage relief measures over a […]