Thomas Geboy

TROPICS - Tropical storm Erin has formed in the eastern Atlantic. It is forecast to become a hurricane later this week and become a major hurricane by this weekend. As Erin approaches the southwest Atlantic, most forecast model ensemble members begin to turn it north thanks to a weakness in a ridge of high pressure. Trends are definitely encouraging for us along the Gulf Coast, but we'll continue to watch and keep you posted. The NHC is also monitoring a weak surface low pressure in the Gulf. They do not anticipate this developing, but this is mainly going to help generate showers and storms over the northern Gulf Coast, especially for the Panhandle where flash flooding will be possible. Elsewhere in the tropics, the NHC is watching two other areas in the Atlantic. Both have low development potential and do not look like they'll impact the US. Right now, there are no imminent tropical threat to the Gulf.

Saturday will bring a critical fire risk to the Gulf Coast thanks to a dry front that will pass through our area on Friday night.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently in effect for all of our Mississippi and Alabama Counties until 9PM. Thunderstorms that move into our area this afternoon and evening will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning.

The latest drought monitor released today shows little change compared to last week's update. That means most of the NBC 15 area remains in either severe or extreme drought.

A Tornado Watch has been issued for the most inland counties across the NBC-15 area until 11PM. The counties included are Greene (MS), Washington, Clarke, Monroe, and Conecuh Counties. From the afternoon through the evening, most of the activity across the region will likely be to our north, however, there will be a chance we could see isolated to scattered storms across the northern part of our area. If we see storms, they will be capable of becoming severe and if they do, all modes of severe weather will be possible. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and even large hail.

Energy and moisture from the remnants of Arthur will move across our area the next couple of days. That will result in a significant flooding risk across our ar

Invest 91L has become Tropical Depression 2. First advisory from the NHC is expected at 10 a.m. CDT.More details to follow

As of 10 a.m., Invest 91L has developed into tropical depression 2. A tropical storm watch has been posted along the coast from just east of Apalachicola to the AL/FL line. Hurricane hunters are scheduled to investigate today. The official forecast calls for TD 2 to become Tropical Storm Bertha by Monday morning. It is forecast to move west or northwest from Sunday through Tuesday. If it were to move towards our area, it could arrive as early as late Monday night through early Tuesday morning, potentially as a low-end tropical storm. There's still a chance it could pass to our south. Hurricane hunters are scheduled to investigate later today.

Tropical Depression Two formed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico early Sunday and will be the main weather story for southwest Alabama through the middle of th

Hurricane Hunters this evening found that Tropical Depression 2 has strengthened to become Tropical Storm Bertha Monday evening. At this point, the center of ci